Friday Bucks Notes

  • Before delving into Bucks notes, some big news in the basketball blogosphere: Kelly Dwyer, of SI.com fame, has a wonderful new basketball blog at Yahoo! Sports.
  • Via Dwyer's blog, Forbes breaks down the values of every NBA and the Bucks rank 29th. It can't be good to be behind the Sonics.
  • ESPN.com's John Hollinger predicts every teams' odds of making the playoffs. This updates daily, and is based on his Power Rankings and a computerized simulation based on how teams have performed so far. According to his measurements, the Bucks have a 20.9 % chance of making the playoffs. I'm not too worried though, as it is hard to believe the Wizards have a 98.5 % chance while the Nets have a 15.2 % chance of making the playoffs.
  • Hollinger offers a clear and thorough explanation, which is to be expected. The main rule is that the system is based on how teams have performed to date.

    In all seriousness, fans of, say, the Nets or Bulls may feel slighted since this tool isn't very fond of their chances at the moment. But all it's saying is that neither team is likely to make the postseason if they continue playing the way they've played thus far. I doubt fans of either team would argue much with that assessment.

    That's the key assumption here: that teams will continue to play the way they've been playing. Based on that idea, every day, the computer plays out the season based on each club's Hollinger Power Ranking on that day. There's only one caveat: To limit the highs and lows, there is a function that regresses performance to the mean.

  • Charlie Bell is due to break out of his season-long slump. He's only made 13 two-pointers in 311 minutes this year, so he's not exactly been an offensive spark off the bench. But at 28 years old, he surely hasn't fallen this fast. It's more of a shooting slump than anything, as he's performed similarly to past years in other areas. Interestingly, his free throw percentage is up to 82.6 %. JS Online's Tom Enlund writes the Bucks need more from their re-signed guard.

    "I'm just trying to find my offense," he said. "A lot of people think, when they see me down out there on the court, that I'm down about the whole situation. I'm just down about the way I've been playing. I want to play better. If you see my head down, it's because I missed a shot, not because I'm in Milwaukee and not somewhere else."

  • Enlund also notes in the JS Online blog that the Bucks are one of three teams to use the same starting lineup every game this year. It has more to do with Coach Krystkowiak's philosophy than amazingly consistent play from the starters, but an interesting note nonetheless.
  • Brett at The Bratwurst wants more shots for Bogut. It's difficult to watch Bogut shoot such a high percentage and get so few shot attempts in a game. Then again, there is a reason that guards shoot more than centers: they create their own shots. That is why Andris Biedrins, Andrew Bynum, and Eddy Curry have absurdly high field goal percentages but aren't yet premier offensive players. That said, I completely agree that the Bucks need to find a way to get Bogut more touches and shots, a point I made following the loss to the Warriors.
  • Former Buck Jared Reiner is blogging for Draft Express.
  • As expected, the Eastern Conference playoff race is going to be crowded. The Bucks are a game out of 4th and three games out of 14th.
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