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Josh Howard available? Let's talk, Mr. Cuban

Now that we've laid out your summer NBA plans , what's a Bucks fan to do in the meantime? Well, aside from the whole "watching good teams play basketball" option and dreaming of Derrick Rose, there's plenty of time to speculate about trade possibilities. Honestly, I'm not usually big on manufacturing trade ideas--it's easy to get caught up in grass-is-greener speculation and 99% of the time there's nothing to it.  And especially during the season there's almost always something "real" going on which deserves more attention.  Plus, I'm lazy.

But while Alex will be talking a bit more about the Bucks' small forward options in the next day, excuse my offseason boredom for a second and humor me as I discuss my favorite fan-inspired trade of the moment: Josh Howard/Jerry Stackhouse for Mike Redd. The prevailing wisdom is that Redd's contract ($51 million over the next three years) mostly precludes the possibility of getting anything aside from draft picks, middling talent, and expiring contracts back, but the Mavericks could represent the perfect trade partner.  They've been thrown into chaos by their stumbling finish and first round playoff exit, they have an owner who doesn't care about the luxury tax, and Howard has taken a flying leap onto the trade block with his playoff no-show and dubious off-the-court antics.  In other words, we just might have the perfect storm needed to trade Redd for something of value.

 

Star-divide

A year removed from signing a shiny new four year, $40 million contract, Howard has spent the past week combining a miserable playoff series against the Hornets with some ill-timed and controversial statements about his offseason marijuana use. If that wasn't enough, he then got into further trouble by throwing himself a birthday party after the Maverick's game four loss. Given Mark Cuban's notoriously itchy trigger finger, it's not inconceivable that the Mavs could go for broke by adding a proven scorer like Redd to take some of the pressure off Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd.  And considering Dallas' lack of affordably-priced assets, it's obvious that the 28-year old Howard (owed $22 million over the next two seasons) is the team's most obvious trade bait, though a deal would most likely have to wait until July when Howard is no longer a base year player.

To the casual observer, Howard might not exactly be the ideal target for a Bucks team looking to remake itself with a disciplined, hard-working coach. Does John Hammond want to start his tenure by acquiring a guy the Dallas media is branding a "stupid weasel"? Well, perhaps not. But look a little deeper and it's clear Howard also isn't your stereotypical NBA pothead. More importantly, he's a player.  Standing 6'7" with a freakish 7'2" wingspan, Howard's a capable defender and rebounder  from the small forward position who would provide a massive upgrade to the current platoon of Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons. And while he's not in Redd's class as a pure scorer, he's proven he can more than hold his own in that regard as well (19.9 ppg), having upped his scoring average every season. Like Redd, he's never going to be the alpha dog of a 50-win team, but both guys probably need a change of scenery to get back to their best.

Just as importantly, a Howard/Stackhouse deal would go a long way towards alleviating the luxury tax concerns the Bucks are currently headed towards in the 09/10 season. Check out The Bratwurst's terrific breakdown here. As it stands, Bogut (likely earning $10-12 million in the first year of his extension), Redd ($17 million), Simmons ($10.6), Mo ($8.9) and Gadzuric ($6.7) will by themselves cost upwards of $53-55 million. Add in Charlie Bell, ($3.6), Yi Jianlian ($3.2), first round picks this year and next year, the first year of Ramon Sessions' presumed extension and some lukewarm bodies to fill out the roster, and you're looking at something around $70 million, which should be in the ballpark of the luxury tax (currently $67.8 million).  Combine that with the fact that the current roster has shown no ability to win games, and it's clear that significant changes are in store, which John Hammond has already warned might not be pretty.

The key financial aspect of the Dallas trade is that while Redd has $51 million left on his deal (logically assuming he doesn't opt out of his $18 million 10/11 salary), Howard/Stackhouse have just $29 million owed to them (with team options for more). Stackhouse will make $7 million next year, and there's no team that would bite on his non-guaranteed $7.25 million for 09/10, so he's effectively an expiring contract. He might also simply be bought out if he's traded, which would make sense given that he nearly killed the Kidd to Dallas deal with comments to that effect.  Howard meanwhile has a team option of $12.3 million for the 10/11 season, a reasonable figure for a very good-but-not-great player.  So effectively, swapping Howard for Redd clears $5.65 million off the Bucks' 09/10 cap number and even more the following year.

From a PR perspective, Herb Kohl might have some hesitation trading his choir boy leading scorer for a player who will no doubt be dogged by pothead jokes for the rest of the summer and probably longer (at least we know Howard is willing to play for Herb...ha!).  But the reality is that anyone acquired in a Redd deal will be flawed in some respect, and buying low is generally the only way to get a guy like Howard at a reasonable price. Overall, the chance to add a player of Howard's abilities while also helping mitigate future luxury tax concerns would seem hard to beat at this point, unless Hammond and Skiles think they can get more out of Redd by keeping him. Unfortunately, Redd's legacy in Milwaukee might make that difficult. While there's no doubt that Redd's scoring would be missed, at $17 million per season he simply isn't good enough to carry a franchise, a burden he wouldn't have in Dallas.  Howard would by no means be a miracle cure for the Bucks, who would still be lacking the sort of franchise player that you need to win a championship. Still, for a team looking to turn the page and go in a new direction it would represent an important first step.

Poll
Your thoughts on a Redd for Howard/Stackhouse deal?
Makes sense for both teams.
285 votes
Bucks should hold out for a better deal or keep Redd.
64 votes
Mavs should hold out for a better deal or keep Howard
84 votes
Neither team benefits from this deal.
22 votes

455 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

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I’m sorry, but this is not a trade I would make.

The only way this team is going to progress is if they build around Bogut. Mr. Self-High-Five is going to need to become a leader on the team for it to work. Howard and Stackhouse are the respective leaders of the Mavs (I don’t care what anyone says about Dirk; he couldn’t lead a pickup game), and bringing them here would completely undermine Bogut’s development as a leader.

I’m all for trading Redd; he just doesn’t seem to fit here. And talent-wise, this idea is fair. But I just don’t think this is the answer.

by Mitchell_M on May 1, 2008 7:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Josh Howard is a leader?

An interesting take, if nothing else…

Do leaders go out and publicly admit to steroids the day what essentially equates to a playoff elimination game? Do leaders fail to break the Top 50 in the NBA in 4th quarter scoring? Do leaders host birthday parties and downtown clubs after being asked by their coach not to party during the playoffs?

Hmm…

by N41D on May 1, 2008 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even more reason to keep Josh Howard away from the team!

I was referring to points made earlier this season that Howard was the emotional leader of the team because Dirk wasn’t up to the responsibility. Maybe that’s changed now, maybe not. In any case, your points reinforce my belief that Josh Howard would be a bad move.

-- "I do know that I plead the fizzif."

by Mitchell_M on May 2, 2008 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

Add CV and Brandon Bass to the deal and you have an absolute winner!!! Redd does need to go though – no where near a leader!!!

by BigO1 on May 2, 2008 2:43 AM CDT reply actions  

you’re right, Redd does need to go. but is the team going to get even close to fair value on him? and what about the situations at PG and SF? and is Yi going to step up? and is Bogut going to continue his phenomenal development? There’s too many questions here; adding two veteran personalities like Stack and Howard may do more harm than help.

-- "I do know that I plead the fizzif."

by Mitchell_M on May 2, 2008 8:05 AM CDT reply actions  

Don’t like that deal for the Bucks. Josh Howard is not a go-to guy and Stackhouse looked totally washed up in the playoffs.

by justin3007 on May 2, 2008 8:09 AM CDT reply actions  

I think people retreat to the “blow it up” philosophy too quickly, but when you look at how dysfunctional the locker room was last year I think you have to shake things up at the very least. Skiles should be a big help but the current roster needs work…our three best players don’t seem to like each other on the court, and I don’t think any miracles can be done there. Bogut’s not a true franchise player, but I think it’s obvious the Bucks will build around him rather than Mo/Redd.

With this deal you’re not even blowing it up though…talent-wise it’d mostly be a lateral move, but Howard’s versatility and abilities as a defender probably fit Skiles’ philosophy better. You are losing a true #1 scoring option, but it’s not like that did us much good either. Howard’s a lot cheaper as well, which I don’t think should be underestimated given the Bucks’ 2009 cap/luxury tax situation. Salary has to be shed somehow, and I’m not sure if there are better ways to do it. Obviously Howard’s judgment has been very questionable of late, but there’s certainly hope he can learn from this. He’s not Ruben Patterson.

Stackhouse is mostly just filler to make it work with the cap, though it’s not like he’s much worse than Mason/Simmons at this point. Along with Mason he’d be an asset at the deadline just because of his expiring deal.

by Frank Madden on May 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT reply actions  

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