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Prospect Watch: Anthony Randolph


Mystery Man: Anthony Randolph really does exist.

Up until now, LSU freshman Anthony Randolph has been the sasquatch of the 2008 lottery: rumored to be many things, but mostly mysterious and unseen.  Playing for a non-tournament team and without a lot of fanfare coming into his freshman season, Randolph toiled in relative anonymity for much of the season before his impressive numbers (15.6 ppg/8.5 rpg/2.3 bpg) and unique combination of length and athleticism started earning the lottery cred that has most experts projecting him as a top ten pick. Still, many of us are still somewhat in the dark (myself included) as we try to get a handle on Randolph's abilities before the draft.

Of course, while he didn't get the same hype as names like Rose, Beasley and Mayo, it's not like Randolph was playing against scrubs either. He had some of his best performances against SEC foes Florida, Kentucky and Alabama, all of whom feature quality big men. Which also raises perhaps the biggest question about Randolph: is he actually going to be a big man in the NBA? At 6'10" and just 197 pounds with a surprisingly good handle, Randolph certainly looks more like a small forward right now.

Still, coming up with a good comparison for Randolph is difficult. While his Orlando measurements are similar to Brandan Wright's last year, their styles seem somewhat divergent. Randolph is reputed to be a better ball-handler with some semblance of a mid-range game, while Wright makes up for his lack of PF size with superior touch around the hoop and a better awareness of his limitations--as evidenced by his stunning .646 fg% as a freshman at UNC, compared to Randolph's poor .464 mark last year. Similarly, the Chris Bosh/Randolph comparison also has plenty of holes, since Bosh was both notably bigger (225 pounds at the pre-draft camp in 2003) and showed far better touch as a freshman at Georgia Tech.

So what's to prevent Randolph from being a long small forward in the mold of Tayshaun Prince or Lamar Odom?  For one, his outside shot (just 2/19 from the college three point line last year) will need to improve drastically to provide the type of spacing you'd like from a 3.  While Prince isn't a great ballhandler, his shooting ability allows him to be effective spotting up from three and his defensive chops are almost without peer (something that John Hammond probably has quite an appreciation for). Odom meanwhile played most of this year as a smallish PF, and at 230 pounds isn't a small guy to begin with.  He's also a fantastic passer for his size, while Randolph clearly needs work in the decision-making department (1.2 apg vs. 3.0 to). It's also still open for debate if Randolph has the lateral quickness to defend small forwards, though his athleticism and exceptional length (7'3" wingspan) should be a big help as both a man/help defender. Still, the downside of Randolph is that he could turn out to be a classic tweener: without adding 20-30 pounds he won't be strong enough to defend PFs, and if he doesn't improve his perimeter game he'll struggle to keep defenses honest as an SF. Fortunately, Randolph is the youngest player in the draft and won't turn 19 until July, so he still has time to smooth our his numerous rough edges.

While I find his potential as a hybrid forward intriguing to say the least, I'll also freely admit to lacking conviction when it comes to predicting whether Randolph will live up to his potential. The extensive video package above provides glimpses of Randolph's explosive athleticism, ball-handling and passing skills, all of  which would be crucial to making it as a 3 in the NBA. Still, it's impossible to know a player from highlights alone, and questions about his motor, decision-making and physical potential won't be answered before the draft anyway. My guess is that If he's a smart player then he should have the physical tools to be a very good player at one of the forward spots. But he's so young that his mental development is also not an easy thing to project.

When he was asked on Friday where he sees himself playing in the NBA, Randolph was not surprisingly vague, saying he was prepared to play wherever needed--the sort of pandering non-answer that every prospect seems to give in order to appear as versatile as possible. It might be more telling that the Bucks brought Randolph in on Friday with Joe Alexander and Donte Greene, two guys who are pretty clearly slotted for the small forward position. UAB big man Walter Sharpe (6'9" / 245) and UCLA's defensive-minded SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute were also there, so the Bucks had an opportunity to test Randolph against both stronger and smaller opponents.

Especially given the Bucks' needs at the small forward spot , it stands to reason their interest would be heightened if they saw Randolph as a potential long-term SF complement to Andrew Bogut and Yi Jianlian. Needless to say, Randolph doesn't have nearly the same appeal as a skinny PF project who would be stuck battling Yi for minutes. So if he is the Bucks' pick, you can bet that Hammond and company think he can play the small forward spot.

All told, I'm still wary of rolling the dice on Randolph ahead of a more proven commodity like Kevin Love or a brainy two-way player like Russell Westbrook. But that's also a byproduct of risk averseness and not having seen Randolph play more first-hand. Fortunately the Bucks' front office has a lot more information to go on. And if Randolph is the pick, at least we now have some nice YouTube clips to stoke our optimism for the rest of the summer.

Poll
Should the Bucks take Anthony Randolph if he's available at the 8th pick?
Yes. He's got too much talent to pass on.
30 votes
Maybe. Depends on who else is available.
36 votes
No. Too many question marks to take him that high.
25 votes
I have no idea.
8 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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This kid has the production (15.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) to go with the flash, as I’ve noted before, and that’s what clinches it for me.

Like you said, he’s the youngest player in the draft, and it’s really easy to imagine he’ll get a lot better. We’re not talking about a classic project here, not by any means. Sometimes when you have a really young, skinny, athletic player like Randolph people get that idea, but it’s not true.

I’m worried about his decision-making, but I voted that ‘he’s got too much talent to pass on.’ He looks scary-fluid on the court, certainly not like Dwyane Wade/Vince Carter, but he gives a 6’10”-version vibe of that smoothness.

by Alex Boeder on Jun 10, 2008 3:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree with everything he said above me. Bottom line is, Bucks need a superstar. Randolph has that potential. If we want to stay in Milwaukee we need to get this thing rolling with a superstar.

Besides his production and length, speed, etc, I think the potential of having our entire starters at positions 3-5 over 6’10. It is a crazy idea that might work.

The downside to this pick is the Bucks do not gain any toughness and not the greatest defender, something Skiles may not be willing to work with or develop to his full potential. I’d take him over that Italian SF (don’t feel like looking up to spell his name). However, if Kevin Love is on the board, he is the only guy I take before Randolph (assuming Beasley or Rose doesn’t slip).

by smitty7789 on Jun 10, 2008 3:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If Skiles can get through to the kid and Anthony Randolph plays defense even half as well as Tayshaun Prince, this would be a spectacular pick. I still believe that Kevin Love is a better option (even though our 4-5 are set), but I do like this kid’s chances.

Plus he’s got another 19-year old* on the team. He and Yi could be the bestest of friends.

-- "I do know that I plead the fizzif."

by Mitchell_M on Jun 10, 2008 4:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I could see Anthony Randloph as a hybrid between Amare/Tayshaun at best. Channing Frye at worst. Plus I liked his attitude towards possibly playing in Milwaukee; he seemed very receptive towards pairing with Bogut and Yi.

by smitty7789 on Jun 10, 2008 6:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I retract my comment about him wanting to play in Milwaukee. I guess that is the politically correct thing for every prospect to say. I guess compared to Yi he seems like he wants to play here. But that is like saying, compared to Hitler, FDR didn’t want to invade Russia.

"Buck Nasty once called in a robbery, not because it was a crime, but because he was jealous of all the money them mfers were making", "Yeaaa holla at ya boy"

by smitty7789 on Jun 10, 2008 11:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Randolph definitely wouldn’t bring any toughness to the PF spot in the short term, but I think he would be fine at SF especially in the longer term. He projects to be a good rebounder at that position and while I’d hate to see him guard LBJ, it’s not like you’re going to find anyone who can at this point (especially in the draft).

by Frank Madden on Jun 11, 2008 10:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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