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Redd targeting return next week

Charles Gardner and Jim Paschke reported after today's practice that while Michael Redd will again be in street clothes tomorrow against Golden State, he is targeting a return sometime next week.  The Bucks continue their homestand through next Friday with games on Monday against the Mavs, Wednesday against the Nets and Friday against Charlotte. Until then, Redd will continue to rehab the patella tendon in his left knee, which he strained in the Bucks' home opener against the Pistons on October 31.  Via Gardner:

Redd indicated he was able to do some running and jumping but he had not yet gone through a practice session with teammates. "I'm doing a lot more dynamic movements, testing it and putting it in positions it would be if I was playing," the Bucks veteran said.

The elephant in the room: how will Redd's return impact a Bucks team that has started firing on all cylinders since he went down? 

Star-divide

 

Let's start with the obvious.  I had Bogut pegged as the Bucks' most important/valuable/irreplaceable player before the season started, and Jennings' incredible start has allowed him to leapfrog Redd in that category as well.  Part of that stems from Jennings' and Bogut's ability to impact the game in multiple ways, and part of it is a positional thing--center and point guard are simply much more important positions than off guard.

That said, I certainly won't go so far as to say the Bucks are a better team without Redd.  As much as people underestimated the Bucks' personnel coming into the season, this is still a team that lacks reliable scorers and all the numbers back that up: 26th in scoring efficiency, 25th in eFG%, and 29th in FT/FG.  Redd's ability to create his own shot and get to the line is exactly the kind of thing that could help the team play at an even higher level, even if it means some sacrifice on the defensive end (where the Bucks still rank 1st in efficiency).

The challenge for Scott Skiles is in making sure that Redd's return doesn't starve Bogut and Jennings of their touches.  It's probably less of a concern with Jennings, who will still be able to pick his spots as the guy who brings the ball up the court every possession.  The bigger concern is whether Redd's return stifles Bogut's touches.   The big man has had 14 or 15 fga in each of the the past four games and he's responded by averaging 19.5 ppg while converting at a 60% clip.  Heck, he's even made nine straight free throws over the past two games.  But beyond his high efficiency, Bogut is also the Bucks' only low post threat, and he's even been commanding double teams at times.  That kind of thing makes the game easier for everyone--Redd and Jennings included.  And while I certainly wouldn't blame Redd for Bogut's lack of scoring against Philly and Detroit, there's obviously a tradeoff involved between getting each guy his touches.

For some time, the consensus on Redd is that he'd probably be best as the third banana on a good team.  The consensus has also been that we probably wouldn't see that happen in Milwaukee.  Could it be changing?  Quite possibly.  It's tough to extrapolate the success of six games against mostly mediocre competition over a full 82-game season, especially given how many injuries the Bucks seem to sustain each year.  But the third banana part seems pretty real right now.  

You might reasonably even suggest that the Bucks bring Redd off the bench a la Manu Ginobili in an attempt to better balance the firepower between the first and second units.  We could certainly see it as Redd works his way back from his injury--he also came off the bench in his first game following his ankle injury last November.  But it's still a bit of a leap to see Skiles go that route on a permanent basis, even if Redd could still get 30-33 minutes in a super sixth man role.   

There are of course other ways of making the situation work, and the pressure is on Skiles as much as anyone to figure out the best route.  For one he can focus on staggering his starters' minutes throughout the game, so that you minimize the amount of time both Redd and Bogut are resting.  We saw that in the first half of the opener, when Skiles gave Redd a short rest midway through the first and then brought him back when Bogut sat down with a minute left in the period. Against Denver the Bucks played a combined seven minutes where neither Bogut nor Jennings was on the court, and going forward it's those kinds of situations I'd prefer to avoid.

Skiles could also move Hakim Warrick back to the bench and let Ersan Ilyasova take over as the starting PF, which shouldn't ruffle too many feathers.  Kurt Thomas is still around as well, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with Warrick and Ilyasova holding down the PF spot and Gadzuric playing effectively at backup center.  Warrick has plenty of experience as a sixth man and was largely expected to be the second unit's offensive sparkplug before Redd's injury helped convince Skiles to bump him into the starting five. Warrick may not be an elite scorer by any stretch of the imagination, but he gets to the line and you can at least run plays for him. That alone makes him pretty unique on the current roster.

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I love the idea of Redd as a sixth man microwave for the Bucks. Too bad he’d still make $18.7 million.

Still, I’ve often thought that many good teams are great because they play stars off the bench and there’s no second unit dropoff. The Spurs and Lakers have employed this to much success recently.

I think Redd can mesh well and produce wins, but he has to want to play the Scott Skiles way. He wants more than anything to play for a contender. It’s more likely that he plays the right way if he come back to a team with something more to play for than lottery position.

by MadTown Hoops on Nov 14, 2009 3:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think having Redd come in as a 6th man is a great idea. The team is playing great right now with him off the court.

Also, making him a bench player may give him more reason to opt out of his insanely large contract…

by zzzmanwitz on Nov 14, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Skiles brought him off the bench in his first game back, and if he plays well and the Bucks win then who knows, maybe Skiles goes with it a little longer. I doubt it’s a longer term solution, but you can certainly make some good arguments for it.

by Frank Madden on Nov 16, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed: The Bucks are not better without Redd, and they have the potential to be better with him. And I think more important even than who starts is figuring out which combination of players do well together. Either way, Redd should absolutely get 30+ minutes.

by Alex Boeder on Nov 14, 2009 12:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think so too.

I think if Redd can find his groove with the guys who are performing well and not disrupt the flow too much, the Bucks will get nice results. Not that I am worried about their perimeter results, from the games I’ve watched they seem to be fine there. But adding Redd just adds another element to that game. Jennings has shown thus far that he can drive, now hopefully he can add the drive and dish element.

Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge

by Bush League All Star on Nov 14, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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