Wednesday Notes: Ilyasova stars, Win Score optimism, Bogut's rehab
by Frank Madden on Sep 9, 2009 11:45 AM CDT
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PrintEuroBasket: Ilyasova stars for Turkey in easy 94-66 win over Bulgaria
A day after helping Turkey top Lithuania, Ersan Ilyasova played just 15 minutes against Bulgaria--because playing more would have been overkill. Ersan torched the overmatched Bulgarians for 16 points (6/8 fg, 1/2 threes, 3/4 ft) and seven boards in just 15 minutes of first half action, propelling the Turks to a 53-28 halftime lead that allowed them to rest their starters in the second half. Ilyasova showed a bit more of a one-on-one game as well, glassing in a turnaround from the elbow and also blowing by a defender on the baseline. The NBA will require some readjusting, but we're seeing more and more why the Bucks are banking on Ilyasova to be a major part of the frontcourt rotation. Turkey is playing right now against Poland (featuring Szymon Szewczyk!), look for updates in the comments.
EuroBasket: Croatia, Ukic fall to Greece but beat Macedonia
I've only had the chance to watch the Turkey games, but Roko Ukic and Croatia were also in action yesterday, falling 76-68 to Greece. Ukic made just 6/15 shots (1/5 from deep) but still had a team-high 15 points to go along with two assists and no turnovers.
This morning the Croats bounced back with an 81-71 win over Macedonia. Though Ukic made just 2/8 fg for seven points, he did add six assists without a turnover.
Berri: Revising Expectations Upwards in Milwaukee
Echoing Ty at Bucks Diary, Dave Berri thinks the 09/10 Bucks will surprise people. Somebody likes us!
Of these ten players [in the projected rotation], six are above average performers. If these players maintain this production, then the Bucks will not be one of these worst teams in the Eastern Conference in 2009-10. In fact, it’s possible this team will challenge the Hawks and Wizards for the fourth seed. In other words, the Bucks could actually reach the second round of the playoffs (where they will probably get blown out by the Cavaliers, Magic, or Celtics).
Even if you buy into wins produced as a methodology, the notion of players maintaining their levels of production can't be taken for granted--I'm namely looking at Ridnour and Carlos Delfino being pegged as above average performers in Berri's quick analysis. For instance, while Berri notes that the 08/09 Bucks would have been a good team if healthy, that was far from obvious a year ago. No matter what you think, Bucks fans can at least agree on one thing--let's hope Berri's right.
Bogut: Rehab progressing well
Head over the Andrew Bogut's blog to catch up with the big fella's latest workout update. And of course the latest on his cars.
This past week I have stepped up the training in my effort to get to 100% after my injury. Every day of last week I was out of bed by 8am and @ the gym by 9. I got treatment for about half an hour. Following that I was in the weight room. Hitting the weights, doing a lot of Pilates and core and finally finishing with Conditioning. Following that I worked out with the fellas for 40 mins. The only thing I couldn't do with them was scrimmage which is what they did at the end. On Tuesdays and Thursdays following that I did some extra running outside on the grass near our facility. Tuesday I did some wind sprints, and Thursday a pretty tough set of uphill sprints. The good news is I pulled up fine by the weekend and got through the week great! Its a small step but it's going in the right direction.
HoopsHype: Bogut interview
Given Bogut's constantly tweeting and blogging, I wasn't expecting to learn a lot from Raúl Barrigón's interview with him at HoopsHype, but it's actually a very good read. Among the interesting points: Bogut doesn't expect Ramon Sessions to be back. Not shocking, but another nail in the Ramon-might-be-back coffin.
Gardner: Ridnour focused on healthy outlook
One somewhat ovelooked reason why the Bucks seem content to let Luke Ridnour play the role of unthreatening veteran as Brandon Jennings takes his rookie lumps? It's less awkward chemistry-wise than Ramon Sessions give Jennings credible competition for the long-term job. As you'd expect , Ridnour is working out ahead of the season and saying all the right things about Jennings and his role with the team.
"I'm excited about him, and to help the team win," Ridnour said. "I'll do what I can to help him get better."It's still possible Ridnour or another Bucks veteran could be traded this week as part of an effort to match Minnesota's offer for Sessions. But that seems unlikely at the moment. The Bucks are $1.6 million under the luxury tax level, and Sessions' deal would put them about $2 million above that mark.
"I don't worry about it," Ridnour said. "Ramon has worked hard and deserves it, so I'm happy for him. It's been a weird deal for those guys (restricted free agents) this off-season."
While there are few teams Ridnour would start for, he certainly had his moments last year, and it's easy to forget that he was always a bit banged up--missing games here and there with back spasms early in the season, losing 10 games to a broken thumb, and then looking just awful when he rushed back from the injury. With his contract expiring and Jennings perhaps ready to play major minutes as a rookie, it's no secret that Ridnour's future in Milwaukee could be limited, but at least you can count on him being a professional about it.
As encouraged as I was by Jennings' summer league, I'm still on the fence as to whether he will actually be the starting PG on opening night. But a lot of that is based on the politics and psychology of starting a 19-year point guard. Jennings and everyone else knows that he's expected to be the man eventually and he no doubt wants to be starting as soon as possible. So the question becomes whether Skiles thinks he's ready to be the man from day one, both from a basketball and developmental standpoint.
NYTimes: Mbah a Moute's long journey
There have been a number of articles lately detailing Luc Mbah a Moute's journey from Cameroon to the NBA, and now even the New York Times is on the story.
"The kids here are not like Americans because to them the N.B.A. is so far away," said Mbah a Moute, a 6-foot-8 forward. "I remember that feeling. Even though some Africans have made it, you can’t actually grasp the possibility until you leave the continent."
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Poland’s frontline is a bit more familiar—Gortat at center with Lampe and Szewczyk seeing time at PF/C as well. Interestingly, Asik has been taking it to Gortat early on, 10 pts in the first quarter.
Lampe backed down Ersan in the first minute, but Ersan’s had a couple putbacks off misses and has even brought the ball up a couple times, looking comfortable with the ball.
In the battle of former Bucks’ second rounders, Ersan drained a triple over Szewczyk to finish with 7 pts and 4 rebs in the first quarter. But Szewczyk has looked surprisingly quick off the dribble, using his long stride to draw a foul on Ersan and getting into the lane a couple other times. He also used his bulk to outmuscle Ersan for a putback in the final minutes of the first, as well as draw a foul jostling for position in the post.
Ersan hit a three over Lampe and then used his quickness to drive past him and draw the foul on the next trip. But Lampe then drew a foul on Ersan to put him on the bench the rest of the quarter.
Start of the fourth and Turkey’s up 11. Ersan is back in but bricks a long triple, then misses a tough fadeaway from the basline—he probably needs to let things come to him a bit more.
Meanwhile, Asik looks fantastic—just put a great up and under move on Gortat for his 20th point. He’s stronger than he looks and has shown some really nice footwork.
Turkoglu buries back-to-back threes to put Turkey up 19. The Polish coach is shouting instructions in English, urging his team to watch Ilyasova on the offensive glass—two possessions later, Ersan puts back another miss. Next time down the court Ilyasova finds an opening in the zone and goes up and under for the lay-in, giving him 18 points and 8 boards.
And as I’m about to post, he gets loose on the break for a dunk.
Another Disbeliever from the Outside World
Not that I’ve heard of this guy before, but he was linked through Ball Don’t Lie, so I guess he has some credibility on a national level. Basically he ranks every Bucks rotation player as below average in the East and predicts that the Bucks will fail miserably this year.
I know we talk about this team being deep, but maybe some of that has to do with the fact that there is little drop off from starter to reserve. While most of our projected starters would hardly create excitement, we have reserves that could adequately do about the same job as them. Still, I feel like the back of our roster (Gadzuric, Elson, Sharpe, Alexander, Ukic, Bell) are not positive contributors and we would need a lot of luck to see them produce what the Bucks need to compete next year. I hope and believe that we are on the right track, but it will only lead to disappointment to believe that this team is going to shock the world this upcoming season.
I think it’s a bit of both. Our 10-15 guys are better than average IMO—the standards aren’t high for those types—but then again what does that get you? Given all the constraints on salary, I’ve never seen much point in carrying 15 guys, and even 14 isn’t necessary much of the time. You’re usually destined to have D-League caliber guys at the end of the bench anyway, so if you ever do need that type of player I’d argue it’s more cost effective to pick up them when needed rather than give them a roster spot and a minimum salary to act as cheerleaders.
I think the bench in general should be fine, but as you mentioned that’s not because we have all these great players who should be starting but can’t find a spot. But if Ilyasova and LRMAM start, there’s still a decent combination of proven role players (Warrick/KT) and younger, potential guys (Jennings, Ersan, Joe, Meeks) that you can go with. The question becomes whether Skiles can get a very young and spotty starting lineup to be greater than the sum of its parts. He’ll have to earn his paycheck.
And FWIW, if nothing else changes then Sharpe is unlikely to be on the roster come regular season anyway (we have to drop one guy to get down to 15 bodies).
Where the Bucks stand in the East this season
Bucks fans should not take what I’ve said to mean that they are doomed to finish the season in last place in the EC. Given the respect I have for Scott Skiles and John Hammond, it would not surprise me in the least to see Milwaukee finish higher than the “talent level” of their team would seem to indicate, relative to the other squads in their conference.
IMO, the Bucks’ present situation has some unique challenges associated with it that John Hammond is trying his best to overcome as he gradually attempts to re-build the franchise. Unfortunately, there are usually lumps that need to be absorbed along the way and this season, in the aftermath of trading away an established wing player like RJ and acquiring a young, somewhat erratic PG through the draft [i.e. BJ].
Not matching the contract offer to Sessions is a significant mistake, in terms of allowing this team to compete for W’s night-in and night-out this season.
khandor
Thanks for the response. Yeah, the Sessons thing leaves me uneasy, especially if we dropped him for Carlos Delfino and Hakkim Warrick. Still, we’ve got Gadzuric and Redd on our team, so our hands are somewhat tied. We’ll see how it goes.
by MadTown Hoops on Sep 10, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
redd rehab
sorry to go off topic but was just reading a redd article on dime.
They took a quote from redd and within it it stated a scheduling point of around mid December, January.
Dime stated that this was redds re-entry to the team post rehab, but is this right?, if so it’s news to me.
The thing that i wonder was Redd referencing himself as a return appoximate of that date/time or was he referencing that by then we’ll have a clearer picture of how the Bucks are travelling Win/Loss wise for a 09/10 outlook for the rest of the season.
views?
redd rehab
opps!…
left off the link:
http://dimemag.com/2009/09/michael-redd-my-goal-is-to-be-one-of-the-elite-guards-in-the-league/
I had the same impression as you, spartakus. Here’s a quote from Hammond that was in a Truman Reed piece this week on Bucks.com:
“Michael feels great, and he’s ahead of schedule,” Hammond said. "We’re holding to the hope, and there’s been no reason not to, that Michael will be 100-percent by the time the season starts.
“Andrew says he’s doing great. As we get closer to the season, we might be monitoring their minutes a little bit, at least early on, maybe Michael more than Andrew. We may want to get him into playing full-strength, full-schedule as we get into camp.”
While it wouldn’t shock me if they were wrong, for now I’ll assume the Bucks weren’t way too optimistic in their expectations of when Redd would be back. It’d be good to have some clarification on this though.
by Frank Madden on Sep 11, 2009 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions
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