Game 45: Heat/Bucks

2009/2010 NBA Season

Mia_medium


Mil_2_medium
24-22 (11-11 road)
vs.
19-25 (14-7 home)
January 30, 2010
Bradley Center
7:30 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: FSN-Wisconsin HD
Probable starters:
Rafer Alston
PG Brandon Jennings
Dwyane Wade
SG Charlie Bell
Quentin Richardson
SF Carlos Delfino
Joel Anthony
PF Luc Mbah a Moute
Jermaine O'Neal
C Andrew Bogut

(18th) 107.1 - OFFENSE - 103.9 (24th)
(22th) 106.0 - DEFENSE - 104.4 (9th)
(28th) 90.7 - PACE - 93.4 (10th)



Linkage

Peninsula is Mightier / Bucksketball / Bucks GameDay

News/notes after the jump...

Injuries.  The Heat won last night in Detroit 92-85 without the services of Michael Beasley, who hyperextended his knee on Wednesday in Toronto.  It's not believed to be a serious injury, but it's still not clear if he'll be able to go tonight.  Last night Erik Spoelstra started Joel Anthony ahead of Udonis Haslem at the four, but not surprisingly Haslem picked up most of the slack in Beasley's absence with nearly 40 minutes of burn.  One-time starter Mario Chalmers is listed as out with a finger injury he picked up in Motown, meaning Carlos Arroyo becomes Rafer Alston's primary backup.

For the Bucks there's some concern over Carlos Delfino's ankle, which he turned on the final play in Dallas on Tuesday.  He was able to start the next night in Milwaukee, but left in the second half and finished the game on the bench.  I haven't seen anything yet to suggest he'll miss tonight's contest, but stay tuned.

Rested up.  Andrew Bogut's 11-point, 3/9 performance on Wednesday was a bit of a letdown following his 32-point, 13/14 effort the night previous, but it's fairly consistent with how Bogut has played on back-to-backs.  We've talked about this a number of times, but it bears repeating: Bogut's an absolute beast when he has two or more days off, but far more pedestrian when he's playing with short rest:

Bogut_splits_medium

The most worrying stat is his fg% on back-to-backs (41.8%), a figure you could live with from a small, perimeter guy like Jennings, but nowhere near acceptable for a big man.  The good news?  Bogut's coming off two days rest and has averaged 21/10 in nine such situations this season.  Via the JS, Bogut's also not too bothered about his all-star "snub"--how un-Mo Williams-like.

"I wasn't expecting it," Bogut said after the Bucks' practice session at the Cousins Center. "We need a better record to have an all-star. We have better numbers than Al Horford, but he's definitely deserving of it. He plays for one of the best teams in the league.

"Once we get to that point, I feel I'll be an all-star."

Thomsen: Brave new world after 2011?
SI's Ian Thomsen has a fascinating read on how the next labor negotiations are already impacting teams' financial calculus.

No one knows for sure what kind of system will result from extended negotiations and a potential lockout of the players in July 2011. Some believe (as you'll see below) that the players will avoid a hard cap, or that other more creative solutions will be applied. But let me repeat this much: I asked executives from four teams what they think they'll be dealing with after next season, and all four predicted a hard cap. "I really think worst case it will be a hard cap that gets phased in over three years," a GM said.
First off, I think any small market fan in principle loves the idea of a hard cap--especially if it's accompanied by a more robust revenue-sharing agreement. The reality is that teams like the Bucks treat the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap anyway, so the benefit of forcing the big-spending teams to play by the same rules are obvious. The big implication for the near-term is that acquiring long-term contracts becomes riskier--the big contracts signed over the past two summers might start to look pretty bad if/when a new CBA forces a decline in salaries.
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