Quality Wins and Bad Losses
I'll be the first to admit this is completely subjective but based mostly on their current record, I split up the teams as such;
Quality Opponents
Cavs
Mavs
Trailblazers
Medium Opponents
Poor Opponents
Then I established the following criteria for a quality win;
Any win over a Quality Opponent.
Any win over a Medium Opponent on the road.
For a Poor Loss;
Any loss to a Poor Opponent.
Any loss to a Medium Opponent at home.
From this I found we have 2 Quality wins:
Nuggets
@ Grizzlies
And
5 Poor Losses
@76ers
@Wizards
@Pistons
Kings
Wizards
Incidentally, if you follow the formula and assume losses to the quality opponents and wins against the poor opponents, and splitting the medium opponents, the bucks would project to a 42-40 record. Calculate in the 2 quality wins and the 5 poor losses and we’re looking at 39-43.
So what does the future look like?
Well February looks promising. Of our 14 games this month we have only 2 against Quality Opponents and 5 against Medium Opponents. And of those 5 Mediums only 2 are on the road. So is 10-4 realistic for February? Probably not considering we only have 5 home games this month, but with the slew of low quality opponents there’s a great opportunity to make up some games.
March also looks good. While there are 6 Quality opponents there are only 3 Medium opponents and all three will be played in Milwaukee, combine that with 10 home games for the month and that’s plenty of chances to steal some wins.
That being said, I think the most important thing for the Bucks to do is win the games they're supposed to win. Maybe we can steal a quality win from someone but I believe avoiding those bad losses and taking care of business against those lower quality opponents will be the key to getting us back in the hunt.
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Agreed
Great work, Benny.
The Bucks predictability—lose to the good/beat the bad—is something we’ve talked about but this is the first I’ve seen in terms of systematically going through the schedule and confirming it. And it’s very interesting to see how that might project out for the rest of the schedule. The projected record is a little better than I expected, so that’s a good thing…I knew we had a bunch of road games ahead but didn’t realize the competition was so soft.
by Frank Madden on Feb 2, 2010 9:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting stuff. Milwaukee certainly needs to continue their strong February based on their schedule the rest of the season.
by Alex Boeder on Feb 7, 2010 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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