In & Out: Recapping the Bucks' busy trading day
by Frank Madden on Feb 18, 2010 6:23 PM CST
in News
26 comments
Are we done yet? I think so.
Two trades in the span of 24 hours sees four players shipped out and three players (and three 2nd round picks) heading to Milwaukee. No huge names in or out, but for the most part John Hammond made the Bucks somewhat better today without making them any worse in the future. In general I'd say that's a good thing, or at the very least not a bad thing. A quick recap:
In: John Salmons, Royal Ivey, Primoz Brezec, 2010 2nd (via Philly), 2011 2nd (via Chicago), 2012 2nd (via Chicago), right to trade 2010 1st rounders with Chicago (top 10 protected).
Out: Hakim Warrick, Joe Alexander, Jodie Meeks, Francisco Elson
In the end, the Bucks managed to add a likely starter in Salmons--perhaps not saying that much given Charlie Bell has been starting at SG--as well as three future second round picks. The only real cost was the as-yet-unrealized potential of 2009 second rounder Meeks, who struggled to find the golden shooting touch he showed at Kentucky and had barely played since the arrival of Jerry Stackhouse. He may yet turn into a useful NBA player, but that will largely depend on whether he can get comfortable as a shooter without big minutes (easier said than done). Thanks to their tolerance for Salmons' 10/11 salary, the Bucks lost little in the way of rotation players, especially considering that Warrick (for better or worse) has seen his playing time evaporate over the past month.
Overall the Salmons deal is the one that matters, and Charles Gardner talked to Scott Skiles about it earlier today:
"I don't think there's anything spectacular about his game," Skiles said of Salmons. "He shoots the ball well and it shoots it well from three. He leads their team in steals this year; he mixes in three or four assists.
"He can post up a little bit. There's a lot of different things he can do. He's a guy with size as well. The last two years we've been playing with a lot of small guards.
"And he's shown the ability to play the 2 and the 3 (small forward)."
The major question now is whether the Bucks have enough depth at power forward. Warrick was no longer getting regular minutes since Luc Mbah a Moute moved to the starting PF, so when everyone's healthy the Bucks should be able to cope with Ilyasova and Mbah a Moute. The Bucks will however miss Warrick's athleticism around the hoop and ability to score in spurts, even if his lack of defense had cost him Skiles' confidence.
The most notable non-mover is Luke Ridnour, whose career season made him the Bucks' best expiring asset. It's difficult to say what the Bucks might have been able to get for Ridnour--especially with the Knicks using Jordan Hill/1st rounder to get Tracy McGrady--but the Bucks likely viewed Ridnour as too important to their playoff push to let go without a major return. Kurt Thomas is also still the Bucks' backup center, just 24 hours after he was initially rumored to be part of the Salmons deal.
In case you're wondering, below is the Bucks' updated cap situation in spreadsheet form. Note that I'm including a 2010 first round pick salary slot, which would bring the Bucks' total roster spots to 10. The fat all comes off in 2011, but be aware that the "space below cap" figure doesn't include cap holds for free agents (like Salmons and Mbah a Moute), potential draft picks, and roster holds needed to get to 12. Still, there will be plenty of room to spend on free agents--for better or worse.
0 recs |
26 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Pretty good athleticism, got to the hoop more than I expected, and generally outperformed my minimal expectations in terms of his all-around game. But he never looked comfortable shooting and only had a couple games where he seemed to find a real rhythm, which is pretty ironic for a guy who got drafted for his abilities as a shooter/scorer. He’s got a very quick, well-balanced shot that looked great in Vegas, and from his college days we know he’s not as bad as he was in his first half season. I could certainly see him being a Redick-type shooter, similarly undersized but also a better athlete than JJ.
by Frank Madden on Feb 18, 2010 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
In his final game for Milwaukee, he was blocked four times and missed all four of his long-range attempts. Having said that, he consistently showed bursts of speed with the ball and was generally inclined to go to the hoop aggressively, which stood out on this team. And of course he was a deft shooter in college, over .400 on threes and over .900 at the line in his final season with Kentucky. The sample sizes with the Bucks are small, so there is some hope in that department.
by Alex Boeder on Feb 18, 2010 11:20 PM CST up reply actions
Building through Draft Picks an interesting strategy
Overall I still like the Salmons deal. I don’t particularly like the Sixers trade, because I felt we gave away the only good piece of the puzzle. Perhaps a DeJuan Blair type player falls to one of our 2 2nd round picks in the next year and makes it all better.
I may be wrong, but I’ve never seen a team build through 2nd round draft picks before. It appears this is the strategy the bucks are taking. With 6 2nd round picks the next 3 years, we have to get at least one or 2 impact players through that. Perhaps the bucks will use the D-league to develop these players.
Feels almost like the bucks are building a farm system to upgrade their talent. Not a bad idea considering no free agents want to sign in milwaukee.
I’m pretty indifferent to the Sixers trade. Ivey’s rep is as a defender but while he was here he just fouled a lot and hemorrhaged points—he gets in a good defensive stance and harasses guys as they come up to the court, so it looks like he’s defending well, but the Bucks were always much worse defensively with him on the court.
Meeks never earned consistent burn, but obviously that’s not atypical for a mid-second rounder. I don’t expect the Bucks to hit a home run with the 2010 pick they got for him but you never know (like Blair as you mentioned). And I think the more important thing is that the Bucks now have a bunch of extra 2nds they can throw into a trade to help close deals—or say there’s a guy at 30 you really want, you’ve got multiple 2nds you can offer for it.
by Frank Madden on Feb 18, 2010 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
Look at the D-League and their affiliated NBA teams, you’ll note the ones who are ahead of the curve; Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and the Lakers, all have their own team. Theirs and theirs only. Solo. This gives those teams more control, so that the team can be run with plays in mind for the Big Show. Hammond chose the Mad Ants and has shown a preference for big name veterans with his signings. I can’t think of any successful call-ups in the past.
by MadTown Hoops on Feb 19, 2010 1:03 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed. Given how badly Alexander crashed and burned, you can’t help but wonder if some time in the D would have helped him work on more basic stuff and build his confidence. But there’s no doubt the Bucks have been hesitant to use the D-League since Hammond/Skiles signed on and I have to think the lack of direct control/supervision is a major reason.
The irony is that the Bucks previously had success with Ilyasova and Sessions cutting their teeth in Tulsa. I think Gill is the only FA we’ve signed out of the D-League in the last two years.
by Frank Madden on Feb 19, 2010 1:33 AM CST up reply actions
it is as someone said a reset of sorts on the 2nd round picks...
Meeks may have developed but with a logjam at SG now we just didn’t have the minutes to give him…
The move for Salmons makes so much sense...
Alexander needed a change of scenery and Warrick was buried behind Mbah-a-Moute, Ilyasova, and even Thomas who can rotate down to the 4. Warrick seemed to lose his outside jumper which was definitely a negative.
Taking a look at the Hollinger PER, Salmons up at a respectable 12.88, while Bell and Meeks were withering away below a 9 (well below the league average). Salmons true shooting percentage at 53% much better than Redd’s 44%, Bell’s 50.2% or Meeks’ 45%.
Salmons production has fallen off from last season but a lot of that may have to do with the Bulls sliding off a bit. In general he’s still shooting the ball pretty well, using about 3% less of his team’s possessions when compared with last year.
In grabbing Salmons the Bucks solidified their biggest weakness without giving up a whole lot. Salmons is not gonna be a game changer, but he is an average shooting guard who when he’s on can drill shots from the perimeter and put up 20-30 pts.
A few defensive stats from Basketball Prospectus suggest he’s an above average defensive player (positive points saved [PS] and dMULT of 0.954) meaning he held opponents to about 95.4% of their normal production on average.
Overall I see a guy who is an average SG in the NBA, who is versitile and can play the 3 if needed. We can now field a lineup with diverse scoring options again (Bogut, Ilyasova, Jennings, Delfino kind of) – something that made us more effective when Redd was healthy on offense. Good news is that Salmons is a better defender than Redd (almost league average in PS and dMULT).
by dishingoutdimes on Feb 18, 2010 11:08 PM CST reply actions
thanks for the research, DOD
Also nice to add an athlete who’s shown the ability to get to the rim and finish with good efficiency. We did lose Warrick but I can live with it.
by Frank Madden on Feb 19, 2010 12:08 AM CST up reply actions
Salmons can be even better under Skiles as well...
Bell is more suited to come of the bench so it is nice we have a legit starting 2-guard now… i would love to see Salmons revert to 08-09 form, lead the Bucks into the playoffs over the Bulls by a game now
Ivey and Brezec are just bodies
Neither will make a big impact. Ridnour and Jennings are both having solid statistical seasons (Ridnour especially so). Ivey is insurance and there for defense against bigger PGs.
Brezec has barely played in the NBA in 2 seasons. He’ll ride the pine.
The thing I’m happiest about with that move was picking up the draft pick.
The big move is Salmons. The Bucks needed another scorer in the worst way. Sorry, but Charlie Bell is not gonna cut it.
by dishingoutdimes on Feb 19, 2010 3:14 AM CST up reply actions
So the Bucks have made their commitment. They’re preparing for a playoff run. Looking at the roster, things look solid, though the lack of a true takeover star or two is glaring. Now the Bucks have a few serviceable veteran bigs and maybe an outside threat. Mostly after today I hope we seed higher than Chicago.
After some time to think this over I absolutely love these moves...
We upgraded in talent, positioned ourselves to have cap room in 2011, and picked up 4 picks which may not all be used to draft players but to move up in the draft to acquire the players we want. Lets hope the Bulls get the 11th pick and we make the playoffs so the swapping of 1sts comes into play too.
Operating at the level of insects...
I’ve been supporting Hammond since his ascension here, reminding everyone that he would have 1.5 hands tied behind his back until 2011. But I’m pausing the support now in favor of just watching and waiting to see if significant moves are forthcoming eventually.
He seems to do smart things, but at the near-trivial level. Yesterday’s 2 trades are small improvements, perhaps more so if something comes out of the draft picks. But considering that the word was the the Bucks wanted to consolidate a drive for the playoffs (which I support more than tanking) they did little to achieve that goal. Someone said they had instead done a lot to support the drive for the 9th spot in the East.
And when a forgettable player like Ivey is talked up by management as an important move to consolidate the 3rd PG slot, I feel like the concentration is focused at the level of insects.
I realize that draft picks are hit & miss, but giving up on both Alexander and Meeks begins to look like a pattern of choices so bad that they need no on-going evaluation.
Hammond has NOT given this team definition. Up to now, I was hoping that was because circumstances weren’t allowing The Real Hammond to do his thing. Now I’m considering another possibility: perhaps the man is a entomologist with little skill set for things bigger than insects. Time, that slow moving dispenser of what-passes-for answers, will tell…
i appreciate that he is willing to cut his losses in Alexander and the man seems to have a plan...
He inherited a mess and now the team is less messy…
He seems to know how to construct a team as well….
I’m a fan of the minor moves for now and then picking your spots in the future…
by Superelkman on Feb 19, 2010 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
I think there’s a very real concern that 2011 is beginning to be viewed as an end to itself, when there’s absolutely no guarantee the Bucks will be able to use that cap flexibility productively. Everyone knows the list of big-name free agent signings that really worked is pretty damn short, even more so for small market teams. Even if you get a useful player, it’s almost always at an overpriced valuation. And in many cases it does more harm than good—see the Bucks’ signing Simmons mostly because they had money and he was there. Perhaps the best use of cap space is simply having the freedom to acquire a big contract.
In a basic sense it’s good to rid yourselves of the Redd and Gadzuric deals regardless of whether you can then spend money on anyone else—that’s just good business. But I think we need to be realistic about how improvement will be possible. Bogut becoming a bit better as a scorer, Jennings developing into a top 5-10 PG, and hitting another couple doubles or one home run in the draft are probably more realistic ways of taking the next step than expecting a big free agent signing.
by Frank Madden on Feb 19, 2010 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Cutting losses...
…and getting some return from them – that’s all good. The undecided question is whether his draft “batting average” will be at the major league level.
Too clever by half
How does the swapping first round picks work? Is it only the Bucks that have the call there? If so, is it possible that if the Bucks have a lower pick they would still decline with the idea of forcing the Bulls to use more cap room on their pick, hurting Chicago’s free agent aspirations?
Surely not enough separation of picks or that much of a cap room crunch to make a difference, but I like these crazy theories.
It’s the Bucks’ option…so basically we have even more reason to try to steal the Bulls’ playoff spot since we can get a lottery pick (provided it’s not top ten) even if we sneak into the playoffs. I doubt Hammond cares too much about denying them additional cap room at this point.
by Frank Madden on Feb 19, 2010 7:08 PM CST up reply actions
So far so good
Got to love Salmons already making 2 clutch plays to close out his first 2 games as a Buck. On a more random note, how about the ransom the Rockets got for T-Mac’s expiring contract. Even though the FA class is amazing, I would be happy to get half that next year when Redd’s deal comes into play.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Brew Hoop
Related FanShots on Brew Hoop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
