The Big Picture For Our Small-Town Team
by Mitchell_M on Mar 15, 2010 3:05 PM CDT
in Polls
22 comments
Stop me if you've heard this one; a seven-foot tall Australian with a "bust" label, a (barely) 6'1" Comptonite who can't shoot, and a head coach who was once fired on Christmas Eve walk into the Cousins' Center, and...
As of yet, there is no punchline to this joke. But as a fanbase, we're used to the ending being seriously unfunny, no matter how laughable the on-court product demonstrated itself to be. After the downfall of the George Karl era, we were treated to efforts like 41-41, 30-52, 26-56. We had the distinct honor of enjoying the signing of Dan Gadzuric, Bobby Simmons, and Michael Redd, not to mention the drafting of T.J. Ford, Yi Jianlian, and Joe Alexander. And let's not forget the Terry Stotts and Larry Krystkowiak experiences.
Starting with the Eastern Conference Finals loss to Philadelphia back in 2001, the last decade was downright dismal. We were among the NBA's whipping boys, along with the Clippers, the Knicks, the Grizzlies, and most recently, the Nets. Of those teams, only the Grizzlies have shown any hope of escaping the league's cellar, thanks to a boon of young, exciting talent.
Thankfully, all signs point to the Milwaukee Bucks making that rise from poor to mediocre to above-average to potential contenders. It's difficult to figure out how they've done it unless you've been paying close attention to them. As it turns out, the addition of a brash facilitator (Brandon Jennings) and the subtraction-by-injury of a woefully overpaid shell of a scorer (Michael Redd) were the two catalysts to this season's surge. Most recently, it was the deadline trade for John Salmons that sparked two six-game winning streaks, a flood of national exposure, a 36-29 record, a number eight spot in the latest ESPN power rankings (no, really!), and most importantly, a firm grip on the fifth seed for the 2010 playoffs.
But here's my question to you: as a fanbase, do we really expect this to last?
Think about it for a second. At the end of the season, the Bucks will have won over 40 games, twice as many as most would have predicted. They'll have a ton of momentum for the playoffs, and they might even knock off a team like Boston or Atlanta in the first round. But do you really believe this current team can take down a healthy juggernaut like Cleveland or Orlando in a seven-game series?
Unfortunately, the likely answer is a resounding "no". This year, the league belongs to the two conference's top couples: Cleveland and Orlando in the East, Los Angeles and Denver in the West. But what of next year? Certainly, the Cavaliers' dominance hinges solely on the ability to keep LeBron James away from potential suitors. They lose him, they lose everything. Likewise, the Magic need to keep everybody happy in their established roles. If someone rocks that boat, it just might tip over.
What about the second tier of teams in the East? Boston is on it's way down, but Atlanta is on it's way up. Charlotte can be a perennial 45-game winner if they shake their home/away schizophrenia. Miami might be able to keep Dwyane Wade and put decent players around him. Toronto is Cleveland-lite: they lose Bosh, they're next year's Nets.
At present, Milwaukee is at a crossroads. Either they're a talented team that managed to get red hot at a good time and are not as good as advertised (kind of like Dallas), or they're a team that slummed it out for a few years in order to make their move to a higher rank during the shifting of the conference (kind of like Oklahoma City). But which route is it?
The basketball fan in me screams in favor of the latter. The formula of Bogut + Jennings + five role-players who complement each other extremely well + Scott Skiles' infusion of a defensive-oriented culture results in a team that just needs one more piece to put it over the edge. Perhaps a power forward who can both run and stretch the floor (I hear Chris Bosh wants to take a 75% pay cut!), or a shooting guard who does exactly what John Salmons does, except better and more consistently (Evan Turner, come on down!).
But the Bucks fan in me is more reserved, more pessimistic, and more concerned. The likelihood of getting a player that both meshes with the current core's skill set and is willing to buy into the program that John Hammond and Scott Skiles have implemented is iffy, at best. Remember, just because we're happy with marginal success this year doesn't mean we should accept anything less than exponential improvement in the following years.
Who knows, maybe that difference-maker is already here. Maybe John Salmons can get re-upped and have a late-career renaissance a la Chauncey Billups or Vince Carter. Maybe Ersan Ilyasova really can turn into Turk Nowitzki. Maybe Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can remain a scorer's worst nightmare, but add a long range jump shot to his arsenal. More likely than not, though, these players will remain what they are: role-players. That leaves the best option to add the missing piece coming either via trade or the draft.
With the right to swap first rounders with the suddenly-reeling Bulls, there's a shot of getting a difference maker in June, like the aforementioned Evan "The Villain" Turner (even though the only way the Bucks can get him is by trading into the top-3). Also, the mammoth expiring contracts of Michael Redd ($18.3 million), Salmons ($5.8 million) and Dan Gadzuric ($7.3 million) are outstanding assets that could be the foundation of a blockbuster trade that brings that difference-maker.
Or maybe we don't make any trades at all. Maybe we bide our time through 2010-2011, let those contracts expire, and try to make a move in the 2011 offseason. Maybe Brandon Jennings becomes the Iverson/Nash hybrid we think he can become and carries the team on his skinny back, or Bogut further becomes the uber-skilled foil to Dwight Howard's physical brawn. There's a dozen different ways where "Fear the Deer" could be the mantra for the next five years.
But these are all best-case scenarios. Hypotheticals that work out all too perfectly. For every possibility that goes right, there are three or four ways it can go horribly wrong. After all, Michael Redd was supposed to be the man. T.J. Ford was supposed to be the point guard of the future. Dan Gadzuric was supposed to be Anderson Varejao before Anderson Varejao was Anderson Varejao. Yi Jianlian was supposed to challenge Dirk Nowitzki as the premier finesse forward. Larry Krystkowiak was supposed to give the team the defensive mentality and swagger that it needed to complement its offensive capabilities.
Don't get me wrong, I trust John Hammond with his plan to build Milwaukee into what the Pistons were in 2003. If there's any way the Bucks get to the Finals, that's how it's going to happen, and if there's a man to make it happen, it's Hammond. Likewise, I trust Scott Skiles to keep his excellent relationship with Jennings and Bogut intact while keeping all 15 players on the roster accountable. But I can't shake the feeling that the team's meteoric rise will taper off all too quickly, leaving us only with the broken pieces of what was supposed to be.
In other words, I'm afraid that it'll turn out to be business as usual; a short period of success followed by a tumble downwards, punctuated with misfire after misfire. Because, after all, we cheer for the Bucks. And the Bucks can't be a contender in the NBA...can they? Is the team's stigma too much to overcome? Or has my pessimism blinded me to the subtle brilliance budding on the shores of Lake Michigan?
So...a seven-foot tall Australian with a "bust" label, a (barely) 6'1" Comptonite who can't shoot, and a head coach who was once fired on Christmas Eve walk into the Cousins' Center...
How does this joke end?
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After 35 votes....
I love how no one has voted Yes we will fail. That is the spirit all fans need. Plus I’m glad I wasn’t the first one to vote Yes. Go Bucks
the choice of two paths
Great article!!
Does this situation, kinda draw a parallel ironically to New Orleans, they have two young solid stars Chris Paul & David West, and they attempt to fill in the gaps around them with complimentary role players, Ty Chandler, Pagero George Shin tired of being labelled a cheapskate opens the checkbook they ink some experienced play off tested vets over a few seasons Mo Peterson, Bobby Jackson, Antonio Daniels, Peja. And it goes really nicely for one season then……Southwest Division champs, knock off the Mavs, go down to the Spurs but not before they give them a scare………then they sign Posey to a 4 year deal at 25 million……………I will mention Peja & Posey were seen as pretty solid moves from what I can recall
Now a few injuries later, and they realise wait we did overpay Peja & Posey, those contracts are killers stopping us from adding that third vital piece we are missing. Meanwhile George Shin is getting a bit gun shy about luxury tax so we try to flip a somewhat lackluster Ty Chandler for gee whiz Joe Smith & Chris Wilcox, is that how you spell salary dump, but justice is served and and a case of turf toe foils us.
Then shock of all shocks we make a bad trade Chandler for Okafor, Whose own team had to be arm wrestled to dish out a 5 year $63 million, and whom hasnt improved one bit since his rookie year, has a growing reputation of being banged up & past it. Then we follow that up by salary dumping clutch shooting & Paul favourite Rasual Butler…..hmmm
the moral? My new rule is 95% of the time your better off not signing THAT guy to THAT contract……whomever it is
we love the core of Bogut/Jennings love the contract of Ersan 3 years at $7, love the Prince for a 2nd round pick, love scooping Delfino from eastern european exile, love filling the other spots with savy vets, Thomas, Stack, Love song & dancing the Bulls for Salmons & fingers crossed the number 11 draft pick…
Id personally like them to back Bogut/Jennings to be the tandem that gets them to an Orlando level, then when Redd & Gadz are off the books, then maybe blow your load on a Rashard Lewis type whom is perfect for that third banana role. And cos ur team is well run, well coached you’ll manage to find value in late first round 2nd round role player draft picks ie Courtney Alexander, anyone the Spurs have ever drafted, continue to get savy min wage vets and hungry role players, but when they want to re-up for that 4 year 20 million just pass…….
I was just looking at a list of 2011 unrestricted free agents and it seems the only guys worth “blowing our load” for would be Carmelo Anthony. Otherwise, the list is littered with older players like Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince, Caron Butler and David West. I hope to god we don’t overpay for anyone once Gadz and Redd are out. One intriguing guy is Tim Duncan. I wonder how he’d fit playing next to Bogut.
Big thank-you's to Vin Baker, Shawn Respert, Tractor Traylor, and Anthony Mason; you ruined my childhood.
I think the thing is if ur the Hammonds & the Bucks its worth taking that risk on a Rashard Lewis type If your 120% sure a) it’ll help push you right right into contention get into the conference finals and some b) Bogut next season backs up & continues to show he is second only to D.Howard in the Eastern c) your willing to realise your over paying Rashard Lewis type anyway which they are d) he compliments your core players Bogut/Jennings e) this all isnt a dream f) never ever ever ever sign anyone named Tim Thomas to a 6 year $66 million dollar deal ever
yeah tthats why unless your right there ie/ conference finals why bother over paying someone so guess its see how this plays out next 17 games, playoffs im inking them in ;)
possible first round upset, if we play the Celts, More improvement next year, Redd/Gadz contracts off the books, amazing how by doing small things well, your suddenly one of the best run, best placed teams for the next year……thanku Clipps, GSW, Indiana, Nets, Minny, etc etc you make us look good
Id imagine Tim Duncan on one knee would still be pretty damned good, Prince kinda intrigues me if the price is right not as a major signing but as a mid level exemption he is banged up though, but he can play D & is pretty efficient………..
with Bucks record of 2nd round picks im assuming there better off saving money always and finding role players that way, let Skiles mould em into what he wants, its the first round picks that always worry cue Yi Jianlian, Joe Alexander credits
Plethora of 2nd Rd Picks
I seriously think we’re going to load up on European players over the next two years, in hopes of flipping them later in a bigger deal. Future assets. And next year’s rotation is already going to be stretched thin.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
shore up the pf & centre
I have heard Hammonds & Skiles agree that they are looking for a athletic power forward who rebounds & plays defence (obviously ;)) and that they were pretty close at the deadline to getting that someone so looks like during the summer that’ll be a priority, and you’d figure guys like that are not to hard to get plenty of athletic guys who just need a bit of guidance & a good situation to be pretty useful, cos yeah once you get past Bogut its pretty thin
should get it done, yeah euro bargains does seem to be a theme, have to fight Colangelo over them though
Wonderful Article
First of all, thank you to this blog and all Bucks supporters who have stuck with this team. It’s really special when a season like this happens. I’m 22, the only Bucks team I remember being this excited for was the 2001 season. Growing up, my friends went to the Bradley Center to see the opposing players, never to witness the likes of the great Johnny Newman and the almighty Brad Lohaus stink up the place. So, while it may be expected to taper our excitement, let’s all make sure we’ve taken a moment to witness the high point of Milwaukee basketball in at least 3 years.
That being said, I’m not sure about the future of this team. I still feel they’re 3 years away for being serious championship contention (never thought I’d put a single digit of years before the words “bucks” and “serious playoff contention”) I still feel like they need a tall athletic small forward who can shift to the post when Bogut is out. Josh Smith or a type like him is a guy that comes to mind. Do you guys feel a star 3 is the answer? Or do you think we can go the 02-06 Pistons route and not have a true star but above average defensive players with someone to handle the rock and make those clutch shots (Jennings)?
Keep the BC loud!
Big thank-you's to Vin Baker, Shawn Respert, Tractor Traylor, and Anthony Mason; you ruined my childhood.
Timmy was clutch in those 2001 playoffs and I got mad love for him....
but we shoulda let the Bulls sign him away that year.
kinda reminds of Josh Smith before the penny dropped this year
I think Ray Allen said about Thomas he could be the best player in the NBA….If he wanted to
Its like I kinda appreciate the veteran savy wise Jerry Stackhouse now more than I ever did the guy chucking in 20 odd points a game back in the day
Confidence that Hammonds will fill in roster holes this summer...
… through free agency, trades and draft. He has the opportunity to fill in backups at shooting guard and center in 2nd round of draft and shoot for potential starter at small forward in first round. At least find a player who can be a long term upgrade over Delfino, who has been a great role player this year but doesn’t offer much upside.
they make me confident
I also like that you have some really poorly put together teams, and poorly run even though they seemingly have a few talented guys who dont seem to mesh, should be plenty of guys with upside that you can pick up without having to give much up at all that can fill those roles
Well, some setbacks may happen
if they do, the important thing is to stay on course.
Hammond knows the kind of team he wants to have – the philosophy, the culture, the style. That’s what matters. Under that framework, keep adding value. And, very important, don’t try to go too fast. That’s a recipe to disaster. Going too slow because you fall in love with the talent you have is another one, but it’s less dangerous and I suspect Skiles is very alert for it.
Probably the Bucks still need an infusion of high-level talent to give the next step, but if one keeps making good decisions in terms of talent evaluation opportunities will arise. At this point I wouldn’t worry if it’s via FA, trade, the draft; if it’s a 3 or a 4. I doubt Hammond loses much time thinking about that. He needs to worry about making this team better next season – that is what will widen his options further.
For now, I think we need to wait until the end of the season to see how the rest of this year enfolds for the Bucks. I think the information that will become available will be the essential to evaluate the type of moves we do next Summer.
doing nothing is the smart play
I think with the state of the league, the upcoming free agency face off this off season, the CBA negotiations at the end of next season most likely meaning a upcoming lock out the season after, and what could be a game changing agreement……when it gets agreed to eventually in terms of contract length, value, guarantees etc etc
it all means the smart move is unless that high-level once in a generation talent is somehow available ie a great chance to trade up in the draft to get a player you really love, your best bet is too sit back and just not do anything major. Already his plan is in place with the chance to swap picks with Bull, adding those 2nd round picks
with the turmoil, upheaval alot of the teams will go through this summer im looking at Philly, GSW, Clipps, Indiana there are some valuable players that just seem buried in a por situation and who you figure that if we could grab we could really be valuable role players
anyway you gotta love the position Hammonds has put himself in
potential make yourself look good move
one move that seems like the smart move, is looking at a guy like Josh Childress………….versatile player, does alot of things well, good team guy, lotsa of length……then I did see the contract he got from Olympiakos, the equivalent of 3 years at 32.5 million egads!!! Now wonder why he passed on the 5 years at 33 from Atlanta….anyway if you could get him back into the league at a reasonable price?????
They tried last season
Fortunately they didn’t succeed.
In my opinion, Delfino is a better player than Childress: better defender, better rebounder, better shot-creator, better shooter, better ball-handler, better passer. And way cheaper. Childress has much better shot-creation but that doesn’t justify the difference in salary.
That’s the more important thing for me: at this point, adding talent is not the more important thing. Adding underpaid talent is what matters. Later on the time will arrive where you can add talent without worrying about the cap implications/future trade value.
correction
Childress has much better shot-selection.
Anyway, if they want a FA from Europe there are more interesting players than Childress, IMO.
ah right yeah they did try to get Childress, okay yeah at that price Delfino is a much better bargain
yeah I think if Hammonds continues to play it like he did with the Salmons deal, just wait till the other team shows their hand, and that they are looking to dump a contract, there is plenty of value around once you get past some of the more fanciful contracts around
I think Joana mentioned in another comment thread that putting together detailed “plans” is kind of a waste given how quickly things are always changing, and I think there’s a ton of truth in that. The most important moves are often very opportunistic and impossible to plan in advance—think of the Pistons nabbing Rasheed from the Hawks, the Lakers getting Pau, etc. You can’t just “plan” to get a franchise-altering player, but you can figure out what types of players make the most sense and then give yourself flexibility to be ready in case big opportunities do arise.
I think the most overlooked mistake of GMs is that they “plan” to have a ton of cap space and basically bet the farm on that being their savior, and then they either can’t sign anyone (see the Bulls in the early part of the decade) or they end up blowing their load on guys who aren’t worth it simply because they feel like they HAVE to use it (see Dumars or Colangelo last summer). Afterall, it was in their plan to have cap space, they can’t just wait a bit longer. Yet spending too much is a mistake that almost ALWAYS takes longer to undo than not spending enough.
I worry a little because it seems like the Bucks have talked a lot about the summer of 2011 from a financial perspective, and I hope casual fans don’t assume there’s going to be some magical bean the Bucks get simply for having cap space. As noted previously, the odds of the Bucks having a superstar fall into their laps are virtually nonexistent via free agency, but that doesn’t mean cap space is useless. For one it’s great for the franchise financially not to be wasting $25 million a season on two guys who aren’t playing (Redd/Gadz), even if they don’t spend the money elsewhere. And even if they carry cap space into the season they’d be uniquely positioned to make trades without having to match salaries, and that by itself can be a big deal.
best laid plans
totally agree 100%……………I think the you have a basic idea of where your team is at and what it’s needs are. But your always look to change those if you can add talent, good role player locker guy, someone is giving the house away. What I don’t think is proper plan is stockpiling cap space whilst putting out a poor team on the floor with the excuse we are waiting for free agency and next season. It’s like a get out of jail card for poor management, alright we put together a bad team, lets blow it up and focus on getting free cap space for this off season.
I think that franchising changing player is fool’s gold. There are perhaps 3-4 guys in the league in that status ‘franchise player’ and even they cant do it on their own, getting Duncan transformed the Spurs, but that was from one season of mediocrity wedged in between consistent playoff runs, Lebron in Cleveland obviously but these guys are once in a generation maybe lifetime players.
Most times you’ll end up signing a guy to deals that cant carry your team, yeah they are nice players you can build a ‘team’ around I’m thinking Atlanta have done a pretty nice job, they paid down on Joe Johnson, surrounded him with young talent through the draft, traded for a smart vet pg, picked up Jamal Crawford from the scrap heap that is the knicks, didnt over pay Josh Childress…..pretty good model and it leaves room for mistakes, hit or missed the draft think Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams is a nice player but at number 2 maybe not what your looking for……………….did I just a long roundabout way end up complimenting Knight & Sund….who would have thought
else you sign a big star who doesnt quite turn out to be quite as bright as you thought…T-Mac anyone? Or even worse than that you sign Ben Gordon/Charlie V
maybe its patience as well how many teams would have stuck with Mike Woodson lets be honest no one really, maybe it’s just because they had ownership issues that delayed the process. But hey you cant hand a guy a useless team and expect miracles, just hope for small progress ie they play hard, defend, unselfish stuff like that…..look at Josh Smith Woodson and he butted heads for how many seasons….finally it gets through to J.Smith its good to see really……………………..
interesting the self control spending thing 95% rule…dont sign the guy 95% of the time, its the deals you dont make that can keep you in the game…………..but then I would have said the same about Pritchard and Andre Miller, they missed out on the pretty sister they really wanted Turkoglu, oh I know its ironic now, and when he blew them off they kinda thought oh we better sign someone….come one down Andre Miller, looked like a bust move earlier, but suddenly injuries et all now Miller’s steady game is looking ok……….moral? who knows patience I guess
I think the Bucks have seen the best moves are not always the big flashy signings, its the move that actually helps your team….and thats been seen with Salmons…..Id much prefer the buck to continue along these lines, add some pieces in the draft, maybe make a trade when Philly, Indiana, Clipps, Minny, whomever gets desperate and gives away some young talented guy/good role player………and hey when the summer of 2011 rolls around, your cashed away, have a look dont like what you see put the money in the bank, and look at what else you can do to improve
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