So Long, 2009-10 Season: A Kneejerk Reaction to a Dislocated Elbow
by Mitchell Maurer on Apr 4, 2010 2:47 AM CDT
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PrintFirst things first, I hope Andrew Bogut makes a quick and full recovery. ESPN.com reports that Bogut suffered a dislocated elbow, sprained wrist, and broken hand, all on his right arm. Get well soon, big man.
Now, on to the impact this has on all the other involved parties:
On the 2009-10 season and playoffs: I usually don't let myself make grim predictions on par with Chicken Little, but with Bogut out for the forseeable future, the Bucks' sky has fallen. With only six games left in the season, I would be shocked if the Bucks finished any better than 2-4. And regardless of their first round opponent, Bogut's absence all but guarantees the Bucks being on the wrong side of a first-round sweep. Maybe Atlanta's poor performance on the road could allow the team to steal one at the Bradley Center, but remember: Dan Gadzuric and/or Primoz Brezec will be playing more than a handful of minutes at the 5. Almost as frightening as the injury itself.
On Bogut's rehab: I've never dislocated an elbow, but I have dislocated a knee and a shoulder (twice!), so I have some idea on how painful the rehab will be. Thankfully, Bogues is far tougher than I am, so working through the pain won't be an issue. What will be an issue is regaining the muscle memory and finesse that allowed Andrew to shoot, score, and pass the ball with ease. In a few months, when the swelling is completely gone, the offseason gives him an excellent opportunity to get it back, which is a good thing.
On Amar'e Stoudemire: While I may have immediately cursed the name "Stoudemire," I don't think that the contact Amar'e initiated deserved a flagrant. That call was clearly based on the gruesome result of the foul, not the foul itself. Bogut did the smart basketball thing by releasing the rim (therefore ensuring that contact would affect his descent to the floor, meriting a foul shot), but the smart safety thing would have been to hang onto the rim for a second until his momentum brought him swinging back towards the court. I'll be the first to say that I think that Amar'e is immature enough to do something like this, but that's based entirely on my opinion of him before this game, not the play itself. Just the wrong place at the wrong time for Amar'e.
On the tangible effect on the team: With Bogut out, there are several holes the team needs to fill. First, of course, is low post offense. We can safely assume that no one on the roster will be able to recreate Bogut's scoring punch near the basket. On the other side of the court, Kurt Thomas is a good defender in spurts, but he can't be expected to bring 'Drew's level of defense for an extended period of time. And let's just forget that Danny G. and Primoz will be involved at all.
Actually, let's not. Their involvement will further highlight the need for bringing in an effective backup center in the offseason, and communicating that need to the front office means that they'll actually do something about it. As if they didn't know already, of course.
On the intangible effect on the team: This might be the most positive point in the whole situation. Whereas Thomas, Stackhouse, and Bell are solid veteran presences, Bogut is the leader on the court for these Bucks, so someone will have to step up and take his place. Looking at the roster, I see more role players than anything else. That's just how the team is built, meaning we can immediately disqualify players 3 through 15.
So who's left? John Salmons and Brandon Jennings. Performance-wise, Salmons wins this contest easily, bringing consistently high effort and excellent results on both sides of the ball. However, his contract situation makes casting him in this role problematic, since there's no guarantee he'll be here next year. Plus, his emotional disposition all but prevents him from rising to a leadership role. I love that Salmons operates as a silent assassin without emotion, but he's not going to fire you up.
That's where the massive silver lining comes in. We all know that Brandon Jennings has the makings of a leader. He's not afraid to speak up, take responsibility, stand up for teammates, and his emotions seem to fuel his game. He's left an impression on this team since arriving on the Milwaukee scene, ever since he got the green light from Scott Skiles to start at PG. He's someone that you will follow into battle, thinking to yourself that there's nothing you and your teammates can't overcome. He's young, he's brash, and he shows off, but he also knows that this is Bogut's team, and he has deferred all year long. For the rest of this season, he gets the chance to make this "his" team. It's almost like an audition, and I have no doubt that Brandon will live up to the challenge.
* * *
So, yes, 'Drew's injury is poorly timed and scuttles our chances for the playoffs. But it will further Jennings' development, galvanize the young players on the team together, and put the Milwaukee front office in prime position to make improvements in the offseason. The deer will be OK, Bucks fans. Just keep it together.
Let's just keep rooting against Chicago so we can get as good of a pick as possible. Every little bit helps.
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A BSOTS member.
On Amar’e Stoudemire: While I may have immediately cursed the name “Stoudemire,” I don’t think that the contact Amar’e initiated deserved a flagrant. That call was clearly based on the gruesome result of the foul, not the foul itself. Bogut did the smart basketball thing by releasing the rim (therefore ensuring that contact would affect his descent to the floor, meriting a foul shot), but the smart safety thing would have been to hang onto the rim for a second until his momentum brought him swinging back towards the court. I’ll be the first to say that I think that Amar’e is immature enough to do something like this, but that’s based entirely on my opinion of him before this game, not the play itself. Just the wrong place at the wrong time for Amar’e.
Thank you for not putting the fault of that gruesome injury to Amare. I can only hope that some Bucks fans would really look into the replay to see that there was no harm intended. I can only hope for a speedy recovery of Bogut.
"I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!" - Howard Beale, Network (1976)
Another party effected : Australia National Team
Hopefully they will get their leader back until September for the FIBA World Championship in Istanbul.
As much as I admire Hedo, Michael Jordan of Turkey is either an insult to the GOAT or to Turkish Basketball.
Personally,
I would love for Bogut to skip out on international play this year. But I’m not an Austrailian, just a Milwaukeean.
"Brandon Jennings needs a nickname before he gives himself one. Oh wait, Young Money, he already did."
by Mitchell Maurer on Apr 4, 2010 6:18 AM CDT up reply actions
+1 to that
I’m an Aussie and I was really looking forward to seeing Bogut lead a pretty solid team at the Worlds this year. Now Bogut’s involvement is looking a lot less likely. Still, more important to me by far is tha the big fella hasn’t done any permanent damage to his right arm or hand that might hamper his shooting in the long term. That really would be a tragedy.
I feel for you Bucks fans too. You’re team is finally playing great basketball after several horrible, injury plagued years and now Bogut has gone down within sight of a playoffs series you had every right to be enthusiastic about. Thats a tough break.
Ersan
This will also test Ersan’s mental readiness. The team can’t afford him have off days for the remaining teams. I believe he and Kurt can make up for Bogut for the remainder of the season and who knows may be for the playoffs if Ersan can add some more scoring to his contributions.
A cat playing basketball? With LeBron and Kobe? Sorry but I have to see it, to believe it.
remaining teams -> remaining games
A cat playing basketball? With LeBron and Kobe? Sorry but I have to see it, to believe it.
I want 2 wish Andrew Bogut a speedy recovery.You are 1of the best young players N the NBA, tonights event was unfortunate. I’m praying 4 U.
Amare’s tweet about Bogut. I’m from Australia so i’ve seen the injury replayed a whole lot of times on our tv and i don’t think Amare did anything on purpose, he seems remorseful.
As for you guys, it probably kills any chance you had at taking out one of the top 4 in the 1st round. But on the positive side, this will be good experience for Jennings. Not many rookies get to lead a team in a playoff series, so i think he’ll get a lot out of it.
Classy tweet from Amare
He’s just gone up in my estimation.
This feels like a curse
So much good could have come out of a respectable playoff performance this year. For the fan base. For the team. Setting the table for further improvements. Getting Skiles’ lessons across. Validating the approach that Hammond has adopted. Allowing Andrew to consolidate his strong development.
We don’t “know” that the season will end meekly. But Bogut did a LOT. The rest of the league ain’t likely to Fear The Deer. Instead, they’ll give us sympathy. And that sucks.
I think Thomas has been a very effective backup center
It won’t be easy to upgrade from what he can offer in limited minutes. His effectiveness will probably decline if he’s forced to handle starting minutes – and now he will – but I don’t care much about that. I’d like to add another big via FA or draft, but I think it’d be wise to keep Thomas as a 4th/5th big and lockerroom statesman. He still has basketball left in him.
Not sure who’s going to be the 4th big now. Probably Gadz, at least he can rebound. I think Skiles should start him though, keep bringing Thomas and Ilyasova off the bench and hope LRMAM/Ilyasova/Thomas can fill 85 minutes of the big man rotation. The refs tend to swallow the whistle a bit more in the playoffs, that should be a good thing.
I’d be surprised if this team doesn’t win 1 or 2 playoff games. Barring more bad luck they will, they’re too scrappy and composed not to.
I hope Skiles will experiment with more small lineups (like Ersan playing center) just to keep Gadz/Primoz off the court, but I’m not sure it’s practical to make up for Bogut’s 33 mpg with just small-ball. The Bucks have slowed down their pace a lot the past couple months so they probably don’t want to deviate too much from the general style they’ve had. Then again, desperate times call for desperate measures, and you want to play your best players.
I think I agree with Gadz over Primoz…Dan at least has the activity level to do some things defensively (help defense at least, not man-to-man) and grab some rebounds. Though I’ll surely feel differently at the sight of his first turnaround jump shot…
Admit it, the first time he hits the shot clock you will smile
Failure is just success rounded down.
Appreciating Kurt Thomas
For the first time this season, I’m glad he’s on the team. It’s good to have a veteran of a thousand and more NBA wars around in the playoffs under these tough circumstances.
I don’t see Skiles relying too much on Gadz or Brezec, though I agree Gadz is the better option of the two. I think it’ll mostly fall to Thomas to stay out of foul trouble and for Ersan and Luc to hit the glass hard. Against the Hawks (if Atlanta is the Round 1 opponent) things could get interesting. The Bucks are scrappy enough and apply enough defensive pressure that Atlanta might crack. And Horford and Zaza are undersized enough to give the Bucks a fighting chance in the paint.
Bigs rotation
I was thinking about possibly breaking the minutes like this:
4: LRMAM 28/ Ilyasova 20
5: Gadz 10/Thomas 25/Ilyasova 13
with some tweaks depending on the matchups and foul trouble.
Starting Gadz/Luc may put a lot of pressure on the backcourt to get something done offensively but it probably allows Ilyasova and LRMAM to play with their customary energy and Thomas to not be gassed by the end of the games while keeping most rotations intact. So we take all of our medicine at once and get it out of the way for the rest of the halves. Or maybe Gadz/Ilyasova start – it was Skiles’ option when Bogut missed those games early in the season.
As for the pace, it makes sense to slow it down and play low possessions games considering our current level of talent. But with the personnel available now I think running must be considered. Bogut going down erases a big chunk of the half-court offence. It depends on the matchups but, for example, if we’re facing Boston and they’re trotting out Sheed/Perkins/Davis for 65 mpg combined then I think our best chance of stealing a couple of games is by going small and running on them. Agree with JD Mo re: the Hawks, there’s little defensive risk in going small vs, them as long as you contain JJ and Crawford dribble drives.
Atlanta
still has a lot to worry about with the Bucks. Ersan stepped up quite a bit in a starting role when Bogut missed those six games early. He’s a problem for the Hawks, as is Luc’s ability to stick Joe Johnson.
If the Magic game at the BC during that stretch was any indication, keeping in mind that Luc was also out during those games, Gadz will start, play only a few minutes and we’ll play small with Thomas doing what he can for about 25 minutes. I do like this line of thinking more than saying so long to the season and worrying about Chicago’s draft pick. There’s still a lot to think about and a lot to play for.
But our biggest problem (beyond Bogut’s recovery) seems to be getting to a series with the Hawks. The Celtics are a much better possibility than they were a couple of days ago, and that loss to the Bobcats Friday kept their hopes alive for 6th.
Lets not forget
Um i wouldnt expect the bucks to finish as badly as 2-4 they showed last night they can still win and lets not forget the thing that was special about the bucks they truley were one of the few NBA teams that are 9 deep, well now they are 8 deep expect to see erson playing center in relief of kurt thomas which will create problems defensively for the other team because its hard to defend a 5 shooting 3 pointers on the trail also he can get out on a break, delfino will have to crash the rim more which he has shown he can salmons can get inside with ease and BJ showed last night an ability to move in the land of the giants and score while its horrible to lose him i cant see them getting swept by atlanta or boston they may lose in 7 but they wont get swept, this is won of the hardest teams in the NBA they arn’t soft like 90% of the other teams. the people who really need to step up are thomas erson and delfino because they will be seeing much more playing time, jennings and salmons need to stay in rythem and score not turn ball over, and mah a monte needs to continue being without a doubt the best defensive player in the game right now
Sad
Lifelong Celtics fan. Come to the Milwaukee every year to watch the C’s play. Last game wasn’t a lot of fun to watch with Bogut eating us alive inside. Bogut was starting to look like a healthy Bill Walton.
Hope he recovers quick. If anybody can find a way to get through this, it’s Skiles.
Hey, I'm an author over at "Posting & Toasting," the Knicks SBN page.
Just wanted to say that I, along with pretty much everyone else over at P&T, am horrified by Bogut’s injury and we all wish him as speedy a recovery as God will allow. We have been pulling for the Bucks since the All-Star break and personally, I was looking forward to them doing some damage in the playoffs.
Don’t give up hope yet!
Never underestimate the spirit of the underdog!
Good luck, gentlemen.
Great Season, Rough Night
I have a terrible feeling that the Bucks Playoff performance will look like the Bucks VS Nets again. Coulple years back…. Really is sad for Bogut. He was having an amazing season. We’re going to have to put alot on Ersan I think at C. Kurt really isn’t very good.. And if Gadzuric or Brezec take a step off the bench, even to get a drink…. The T.V goes off… Still a Buck’s fan and next year, with added depth… Playoffs again. Hopefully Redd can produce something, anything before his Contract is up or he is traded.
Typical Ama're
Actually, I was rooting FOR the Bulls last night — their win over the Bobcats will help the Bucks fight off the Bobcats for the 6th seed. The draft’s pretty far from my mind at this point — we don’t even know who’s in it yet.
As for Ama’re, I don’t think he’s the kind of player who could ever commit to bad intentions … or laziness for that matter.
http://bobboozerjinx.com/
As a Lakers fan,
I was saddened to see Andrew’s injury, and wish him a speedy recovery. He’s also been a good sport and a tremendous athlete. He was having a great season and it is a shame to see it end like like this. Hope you guys do well in the playoffs still.
Blazer fan here.
So sorry to see this. I’ll be praying for Bogut.
by Nick Van Excellent on Apr 4, 2010 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
Sympathies guys
What a horrific injury to such a great player and great guy and I am sorry for what this does to your playoff chances. I really thought you have a decent shot at getting out of the first round
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
Im still trying to process this...........
and how it even fits into to what was shaping as an amazingly positive season, and the utter shock and disbelief of seeing Bogut go down in such a horrible way is inexplicable, you cant sit down and convince yourself that there is anything fair and just about what happened in te sporting world, its just utter numbness and disappointment……..as much as Jennings hot start, streaky play flirting between horror shooting and clutch plays, and cockiness and irregular moments of contemplative self analysis, the surprise play and scrappy determination of Ersan & Delfino, the quiet offensive efficiency that Salmons has brought………this whole season mirrored so much of what Bogut and the current Bucks are all about…………
you felt Skiles had tapped into something and had a belief in Bogut that maybe he never had in himself, a potential to be a dominant guy on both ends of the floor that set the tone for his team with unselfish play, defensive nous, an pride in team mates achievements, and the belief that your part of something bigger than the indvidual, that together you can achieve some pretty damn good things on the basketball court thats maybe greater than the sum of all parts…………
and yeah there would games where the old Bogues would appear and he put up an inexplicable disappearing act, but yeah they were getting fewer and fewer, and heck it kinda made him all the more realistic, not some cartoon character super hero carved out of stone that Dwight Howard appears but like your next door neighbour who is kinda this down to earth normal guy who just happens to be pretty good as basketball, and who probably doesnt realise just how good he could be, but heck he is just having fun enjoying the teams success……….
that last couple of games against Charlotte & Cleveland kinda summed it up Bogues blew a lay up that could have helped nail it against the Cavs, but he was pretty clutch on the defensive end against Charlotte and he was out covering Felton on the last shot……….
and the playoffs. all that hard work would have been rewarded with a play off birth and you always felt well maybe not a 110% confident but you kinda knew there would be games where Bogut would put it together and give someone like the C’s a real damn headache……….
but as hard as it was watching that and as soon as it happened your heart just sinks not for anything else but for the guys cos your watching all his hopes and dreams for the season and the playoffs sink without a trace………….im not ready to give up on the guys this team has scrapped and fought for everything its has got this year, and I have no doubt that the guys will continue to do so for the remaining games, and Ill be right behind them
I dont want to go into what they will run and whom will get the minutes just yet, I know Skiles will work with what his has and continue to ride the guys regardless and if you keep working your guts out eventually good things will happen no matter how hard it is to see now
cmon bucks
What he said
Perfectly put.
It isn’t over yet. And even when it is, remember, next year we will be better and 2012 will be the year we have the hope of another albatross of a contract (’Melo! ’Melo! No Whammy!!! STOP!).
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Frpom Lakers fan
wish you all the best. keep faith…and play hard. any team you play in the playoffs will make the mistake of looking at you as weak underdogs because your star center is out. kinda like what the lakers did against houston last year. i hope the bucks will just fight hard and not give up. use your strenghts and play the best you can. do it for Andrew if nothing else.
As for Andrew, get healthy man…get back to be your dominating self.
I was excited to see how the Bucks did in the playoffs.
So much for that.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Condolences from a Blazer's Fan
Portland has had more than it’s share of injuries this year, and I know how much it hurts — as a fan — to wake up with that sinking feeling that your team’s season is done. In Portland, we’ve had that sensation at least 3 times this year. Still, the team we survived it and we are about to head off into the second season — where all it can take is one player getting hot at the right time to drag the team along.
I feel for you guys, but also part of being a fanatic is to not give up. Hang in there! You are in the playoffs. When Bogut comes back next year the team will have the experience to help them spring forward next season. You are still on the cusp, the injury hasn’t sent your team crashing into the NBA abyss. Enjoy watching how your guys respond in the post season and take the playoffs this year for what they are — and investment for next year.
I know it doesn’t help much, but it will all be ok. Peace.
I know it probably doesn't make you guys feel any better ...
but we know what you’re going through right now. Hopefully he recovers quickly. Best of luck in the playoffs.
Straight Independent.
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