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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Notes: Bogut officially out of World Championships

Herald Sun: Bogut officially out of World Championships
As expected...

"This has been a tough decision, but given the nature of the injury I sustained a few weeks back I knew at that point that playing at the world championships in 2010 would be doubtful," Bogut said.

"I am certainly keen to contribute in any way possible to the team's preparations and look forward to working with (coach) Brett Brown and the team as we prepare for 2012 London Olympics."

Star-divide

JS: 2009-'10 Milwaukee Bucks team grades
I tried grading the Bucks' players a couple years ago, but even as you're doing it you start to realize how pointless it is to use a letter grading scale to judge players with wildly different expectations, salaries, and playing time. It's fun to debate, but at the end of the day it's too subjective to take take very seriously.

But ignoring all that for a moment...how can the defense and coaching staffs only get a B+? The defense ranked second in the league in points allowed per possession, which is easily the best overall metric of defensive performance. Yet you will never hear TV or print media mention that or other basic stuff like rebound rates and eFG%.  I'm continually amazed at the phobia towards pace-adjusted metrics--or anything else that's been thought of since the 1970s. Math is our friend, people...it's OK to tell the casual fan about it.

Woelfel: NBA draft winds starting to blow
Gery Woelfel is also thinking draft these days, and his latest blog post features some familiar names.

Based on a survey of nine NBA officials -- general managers, player personnel directors and scouts -- the Bucks would choose from either Butler small forward Gordon Hayward, Oklahoma State shooting guard James Anderson or Marshall power forward/center Hassan Whiteside.

Those aforementioned players each received three votes in a poll I recently conducted and tied for the 15th-best player in the draft, which will be held June 24.

What's interesting is that the nine personnel types unanimously picked Xavier Henry to go in the lottery, yet Chad Ford and DraftExpress both have Henry falling to the Bucks at 15. It's also pretty surprising to hear that two of the respondents picked Iowa State PF Craig Brackins in the their top fourteen. Brackins was considered a likely first rounder last year but had a disappointing junior season and has slipped into the second round in most mocks. So either the draft sites are out of touch with what teams are actually thinking or a couple of the survey respondents haven't been paying attention to what everyone else is seeing.

Courtside Analyst: The Truth Value of Andrew Bogut
Ty offers some analysis of Andrew Bogut's value to the 09/10 Bucks.

So, what does this mean for the new value calculation for a player like Andrew Bogut? Well, first my old calculation "Wins Above Average". By "Wins Above Average", Bogut’s estimated 7.9 wins and 1.3 losses produced this season would put his value WAA at +3.3 wins, implying the Bucks were something like a .500% team without him.

But "Wins Above Bench" puts his value at +5.7 wins, implying the Bucks were something like a 37 win team without him. (I think that’s what they were actually).

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Too bad about Bogut

But it’s probably for the best. He needs some time to heal.

And I don’t know about Woelfel, he rarely seems to be accurate, but I haven’t followed him for too long.

And I agree. The media needs to get a start on these “newer” stats. They’re heck of a lot more accurate then the simple ones that show up everywhere. I think the NBA itself is a bit cautious towards them, like they’re determined to “dumb down” the game for casual fans.

"There ain't nothing to do in Milwaukee"
--Josh Smith
OH RLY?

by Jacob Grinyer on May 10, 2010 6:57 PM CDT reply actions  

The main problem with advanced stats...

IMO the biggest stumbling block to wider adoption is the lack of an agreed-upon standard for calculating pace. Unfortunately the box score doesn’t provide actual possessions, so you have to back it out based on the number of FGA, FTA, offensive rebounds, turnovers, etc. Different sites (Hollinger, HoopData, Basketball Reference) tweak the pace calculation in different ways, which in turn leads to different numbers for offensive and defensive efficiency. As long as you use the same sources it’s fine, but I think the inconsistency makes people somewhat uncomfortable with the stats.

Still, that doesn’t excuse things ignoring thing like rebound rate (which is just the % of total available rebounds claimed by a player) and eFG%.

by Frank Madden on May 10, 2010 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

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