Free Agent Scenario

The big issue with a S&T is that the Bucks have to send out a ton of salary to bring Bosh in (you’re obviously accounting for that with Redd), while teams with cap space don’t have to match salaries. They can structure something where they send out much less salary (like a young player on a rookie contract, draft picks, etc—no deadweight salary.), which is probably much more preferable to the Raps, who could also get a huge trade exception if they do a lopsided deal.

The main wrinkle with a Bucks deal is that Redd’s contract will be 80% covered by insurance as long as he’s out, so if they can keep him from playing it’s a good thing. And it also means the cost of doing business with the Bucks in a trade is much less. But I’m sure the Raps would prefer a big trade exception to one year of Redd’s ugly salary (even if it’s mostly insured).

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bosh ends up in a S&T, but I imagine it will be a case where he says he’s interested in signing with a team that has max cap space, but then won’t sign until they first try to do a S&T—in order to get the bigger annual raises and sixth year that only the Raps can offer (b/c of Bird rights). So for instance he might tell the Nets he’s interested but wants a six year deal and they need to talk to Toronto. The Raps could then try to force Jersey to give up some assets in order for them to facilitate getting Bosh more money. It’s kind of messed up when you think about it, since Bosh would be getting a monster contract even without the Raps being involved and instead he makes New Jersey give up players/picks who would otherwise help Bosh win games down the road. I doubt Toronto could get that much out of the deal since he’s likely gone anyway, but if Bosh has multiple teams competing to give him max deals you could see a team bend over backwards in a S&T. Who knows.

If I’m understanding this correctly, what you’re saying Frank is that in the case of a Sign and Trade deal we’d have to match dollar for dollar whatever we’d be signing Bosh for. And teams with more cap space would not? So in the case of the Nets, they could do a S&T with Toronto that is Bosh for their number one pick, and that would work?

If so, that hurts our cause greatly. Not that the Nets would ever dump the #1 pick for the right to sign Bosh, but as appealing as a #15 pick would be, the added baggage of Redd’s contract would probably be a dealbreaker. Then again, the Raptors are absolutely going to lose Bosh, and let’s face it, they don’t have the pieces to attract another top free agent. It wouldn’t hurt to turn a bad situation into a draft pick in Toronto’s eyes, and we could turn Michael Redd and a draft pick into Chris Bosh. Someone please forward this to Hammond :)

Posted the link over at Raptors HQ:

http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/5/7/1462427/chris-bosh-the-raptors-and-the

does he see himself as the number 1 guy or as the side kick robin to say Wade’s Batman? It’s kinda an ego thing as well I guess………If he goes to the Net’s that’s as the main guy right? Do they have enough for two max guys? Im not sure that is appealing to him again…if it;s not only a financial thing which it cant totally be otherwise he could just stay in Toronto……….Im not sure he is really interested in helping Toronto out much either?….that relationship seems to be going down hill fast

in pure basketball terms and potential you look at Bogut & Jenning’s and say yup great fit Bogut does the heavy banging and alot of the hard work, a great young point guard, good coach………

but the bright lights and championship lights shine brighter elsewhere…….Miami makes alot of sense, Houston seems like they are going to be players because they have alot of pieces since they moved T-Mac, cant count out Cuban with Dampier’s contract as the bargaining chip, but like you said Nowitzki & Bosch doesnt seem to quite mesh but has that ever stopped Cuban………….funny all this tinkering he has done if he just kept Nash & Nowiztki together who knows what they could have done

Why would the raptors trade arguably the best Power Forward in basketball for a draft pick?not even a lottery pick? If they trade Bosh it’s for another big name superstar or 3or 4 high draft picks.

I’m sure Hammond has read it by now, as we all know he runs the Bucks Twitter account.

The overall tone of this thread, outside of completely blind optimism by Frank and myself is that there is no way Bosh comes here. And if that’s the case, well I obviously wouldn’t be surprised, but let’s deviate from the Bucks then, and discuss where Bosh might prefer to go. Here’s a quick list.

Amount under the salary cap according to NBA.com (older data captured right after trade deadline. Cap assumed at $53.6 mil):

New York $32,028,263
New Jersey $26,429,341
Miami $21,345,674
Washington $18,943,379
Chicago $17,937,884
Sacramento $17,145,870
L.A. Clippers $15,364,727
Minnesota $12,595,844
Oklahoma City $11,495,849

The Bucks aren’t much further down on this list, with Frank estimating the Bucks are about $10.2 million under the cap. Without accounting for which team lands Lebron, Wade, or JJ, I’d say that the Bucks have to be in the top 5 list of preferred cap-friendly destinations.

OK City is on the brink, and I would imagine Bosh would send them right to the forefront. I’d put them at the top of the list, although I’m not sure what tradable assets they have.

Chicago has quality young pieces in Rose and Noah, and is the right up there as a top NBA city thanks to the Jordan era. Their current lack of a coach hurts their cause, however.

Miami is a destination, so even without a shell of a team, ballplayers want to play there.

New York is the “mecca” of basketball, although for being such a touted destination by the media, the team has been a joke for quite a while. However, there is the Mike D’Antoni affect that could bring superstars back to MSG.

I think Milwaukee is somewhere on this list of five. Same as Chicago in that we have Bogut and Jennings, and we have the edge in coaching with Skiles. No Jordan era to back us up, however.

This list is most definitely incomplete because I’m only really looking at the top cap-friendly teams. There are the Dallas’ of the world that have a $13 million dollar non guaranteed contract (Dampier), and a solid SF in Caron Butler that has a contract expiring in 2011. Even with all that said, I think we have a shot at it, albeit a small one. John Hammond needs to spend some of the team’s Playoff revenue on beefing up (or creating) the free agent recruitment department.

can get a real idea of where we are at as well……..Redd and Gadz contracts are there to utilise have some draft picks to use to add some cheap talent rotation guys……….Hammonds works the phones for some more value deals

I was thinking about the plausibility of this deal actually going down, and I put myself in the Raptors shoes. What if the Raptors countered with this offer:

Bosh S&T/Turkoglu

for

Redd/#15 pick/Gadzuric/Bell

Turkoglu’s production was anything but what Toronto was hoping for (11/4/4 on the year) based on his ginormous contract. Best case scenario for Toronto would be to drop him, and it might actually benefit Hedo for a fresh start. Gadzuric would be another expiring for Toronto, so the complete rebuilding process would start sooner rather than later. Bell would be the Thank you from Toronto for taking Hedo’s awful contract.

In an effort to be as realistic as possible, I think this scenario is much more likely. I’m not at all keen on the huge Hedo contract, but if he could get re-focused on the game and get back to his Orlando form, we’d have a clutch shooter for close games. Our starting lineup would like as such:

Jennings
?
Turkoglu
Bosh
Bogut

Plug in any serviceable shooting guard, and we suddenly have a killer starting lineup. This would probably kill our future salary outlook, as our 3, 4, and 5 starting spots will be earning 9-17 million each. Another pipe dream, and this one would benefit the Bucks much less, but something probably more realistic. Would the Bucks pull this trigger?

He will draft a couple guys, make a couple small to medium sized signing… maybe make a small trade or two and stay the cap-friendly course…