Ilyasova - getting a bum rap?
by rulesofredd on Dec 21, 2011 5:52 PM CST
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I'm willing to admit that I'm relatively green when it comes to saber metrics, but I had some time to look at the statistics on 82games.com and came to an interesting conclusion. Perhaps others have seen it as well.
I continue to hear that the Bucks need to trade Ilyasova, which I understand due to his disappointing year. In the end, I disagree with those sentiments. Ilyasova is not a stat stuffer, and his 3 pt. percentage has been extremely disappointing. However, when looking at the top 5 most productive lineups the Bucks used last year (based on Win %), it becomes pretty clear that the Bucks are better with Turk Nowitski on the court than without him.
See, the Ersanator is someone who makes his teammates better - he works hard, he gets extra possessions, he rebounds well, and he is another solid defender (as long as he's not against a very quick 4). Here are the best lineups from last year.
| # | Unit | Min | Off | Def | +/- | W | L | Win% |
| Dooling-Douglas-Roberts-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 89.9 | 1.06 | 0.91 | +23 | 7 | 2 | 77.7 |
| Jennings-Salmons-MbahaMoute-Ilyasova-Bogut | 41.2 | 1.22 | 0.97 | +18 | 6 | 3 | 66.6 |
| Jennings-Salmons-Douglas-Roberts-Ilyasova-Bogut | 32.5 | 0.97 | 0.88 | +7 | 2 | 1 | 66.6 |
| Jennings-Salmons-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 97.8 | 1.05 | 1.00 | +16 | 8 | 6 | 57.1 |
| Dooling-Salmons-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 34.0 | 1.05 | 1.02 | -2 | 4 | 3 | 57.1 |
So maybe the Bucks should be looking at Ilyasova at starting the 4, instead of all the other candidates, (LRMAM, Gooden, Harris, etc.). Ersan may not seem like a contending starting 4, but the stats seems to bare otherwise.
I'd love some guidance from the more savvy sabermetric people on this blog. It's been a blast reading a BrewHoop on a consistent basis. I know I don't often comment, but it is out of respect for the knowledge here, not because I don't want to participate.
Look forward to your responses!
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I agree
I’m not a stats guy, I trust my eyes. Ersan is an energy guy, we can use that energy at tip off and off the bench. I’d prefer Luc out there most of the game, but Ersan can provide energy at particular points in the game and the first 5 minutes or so is one of those times. So I agree we should start Ersan, but not necessarily play him like a typical starter.
Good post
To be clear, I think the main motivation for trading Ersan would be the belief that he’s leaving next summer, not that he’s no longer a useful player. At $2.5 million he’s a really good value, especially considering that he’s not on a rookie contract.
Should he start? I’d say no, but honestly the Bucks don’t have anyone else who I think qualifies as a clear starter at PF, so I wouldn’t find it particularly aggravating if he did. In an ideal world you wouldn’t start Luc or Gooden at PF either, but this is the Milwaukee Bucks, not an ideal world.
Having watched Ersan over the years, I think my biggest complaint—and what makes me prefer him as a bench guy—is consistency. The effort is there, but his confidence shooting the ball seems to come and go, which is an issue for a guy who doesn’t get to the line much and generally lives and dies by his jump shot.
Thanks
Thanks for the response from both of you. I guess I still see Ersan as more valuable on our team than as trade bait. What could we possibly get for him – a future 2nd round pick? I don’t see anyone that we trade for helping us more than he can.
I hope he sticks around, and if he leaves for greener pastures at the end of the year, so be it. And let’s hope he finds some semblance of a stroke. Watching him clank free throws last night was a little disconcerting for sure.
Nice work RulesofRedd.
Like Frank noted, I’d also say the trade rumors are propped up by the murmurs about Ersan wanting to leave the Bucks after the season, which would leave the team empty handed. In a way, wanting a trade kind of circles back on your argument here…you don’t want to lose a guy who you know has value. He’s on a cheap contract and his style is complementary in nature and could fit with many other teams, so maybe the Bucks are better off getting a like-kind asset under a longer contract or otherwise willing to stay in Milwaukee.
The other things to be careful with would be (1) the small sample sizes of these lineups, as some are less than one complete game of play, and (2) the fact that all of these lineups also happen to feature the team’s best defensive player [Bogut] and most posted above-average defensive efficiency. It might be a bit of the Bogut effect here, too.
All in all, I think you are right to focus on the value of Ersan. Did he ever take the next step? No. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good rebounder, tough defender, and occasionally dangerous pick and pop option. All good things the Bucks can put to good use.
SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | Twitter: @stevevonhorn
by Steve von Horn on Dec 22, 2011 9:55 PM CST up reply actions
Clearly a Bogut effect ... but there's more
Check the hoopsdata line on the Bogut-Ilyasova-Mbah a Moure lineup, which Skiles doesn’t use much, as he tends to platoon Ersan and Moute (wish he wouldn’t do that so much). Very difficult lineup to score on, and their rebounding rate is off the charts. The Maggette-Ilyasova rotation was often the most productive offense the Bucks had last year, and it was only after Ilyasova went out with a concussion that Maggette was benched. They ran a good two man game.
Other Ilyasova behind the box score data: He was a 50 percent jump shooter inside the arc, best on the team and easy offense when he had it going. He was also a Top 20-rated defender for most of the season and was third in the league in taking charges, which doesn’t enter into any of the win share or EZPM defensive metrics, which deny him a half a point score or more.
His save of that wild Jackson pass last night at the end of the T-Wolves game is the sort of thing that Ilyasova does on a regular doesn’t get measured (it led to Leuer’s and-one lay-in) though it will show up in his offensive and defensive ratings.
Ilyasova being traded is partly a function of his feeling that the Bucks don’t want him, evidenced by the Drew gooden signing, Skiles handing Gooden the starting PF job last season, and then yanking him constantly 10 of the first 14 games. Skiles is handling it differently this season, but still, Ersan’s gotta be wondering how he’d play for somebody else.
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