I'm willing to admit that I'm relatively green when it comes to saber metrics, but I had some time to look at the statistics on 82games.com and came to an interesting conclusion. Perhaps others have seen it as well.
I continue to hear that the Bucks need to trade Ilyasova, which I understand due to his disappointing year. In the end, I disagree with those sentiments. Ilyasova is not a stat stuffer, and his 3 pt. percentage has been extremely disappointing. However, when looking at the top 5 most productive lineups the Bucks used last year (based on Win %), it becomes pretty clear that the Bucks are better with Turk Nowitski on the court than without him.
See, the Ersanator is someone who makes his teammates better - he works hard, he gets extra possessions, he rebounds well, and he is another solid defender (as long as he's not against a very quick 4). Here are the best lineups from last year.
# | Unit | Min | Off | Def | +/- | W | L | Win% |
Dooling-Douglas-Roberts-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 89.9 | 1.06 | 0.91 | +23 | 7 | 2 | 77.7 |
Jennings-Salmons-MbahaMoute-Ilyasova-Bogut | 41.2 | 1.22 | 0.97 | +18 | 6 | 3 | 66.6 |
Jennings-Salmons-Douglas-Roberts-Ilyasova-Bogut | 32.5 | 0.97 | 0.88 | +7 | 2 | 1 | 66.6 |
Jennings-Salmons-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 97.8 | 1.05 | 1.00 | +16 | 8 | 6 | 57.1 |
Dooling-Salmons-Maggette-Ilyasova-Bogut | 34.0 | 1.05 | 1.02 | -2 | 4 | 3 | 57.1 |
So maybe the Bucks should be looking at Ilyasova at starting the 4, instead of all the other candidates, (LRMAM, Gooden, Harris, etc.). Ersan may not seem like a contending starting 4, but the stats seems to bare otherwise.
I'd love some guidance from the more savvy sabermetric people on this blog. It's been a blast reading a BrewHoop on a consistent basis. I know I don't often comment, but it is out of respect for the knowledge here, not because I don't want to participate.
Look forward to your responses!