Larry Sanders-bust?
by CanadaBucks on Dec 23, 2011 12:41 PM CST
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PrintI've noticed a few posts lately stating that Sanders was a)a bad draft pick or b0a bust. This got me wondering how the 15 players taken after larry have fared in their short careers so far and which ones might have been a smarter pick. Yes it's too early to tell and the lock-out did no developing players any favours but just for fun we'll look at 15 through 30 and compare.
I will use the following stats in order for comparison basis in this order:
GP, MP, PPG, RPG, APG, BPG(the last 4 per 36 Min),per and TS% because advanded stats are da bomb!
15. Larry Sanders 60 872 10.7 7.3 0.7 3.0 11.0 .448
16. Luke Babbit 24 137 9.5 7.9 1.6 0.5 1.0 .305
17. Kevin Seraphin 58 635 8.7 8.6 0.6 1.6 8.4 .479
18. Eric Bledsoe 81 1841 10.6 4.4 5.7 0.5 10.8 ,499
19. Avery Bradley 30 162 11.6 3.8 2.7 0.0 2.2 .360
20. James Anderson 26 286 11.8 2.9 2.3 0.8 8.5 .529
21. Craig Brackins 3 33 8.7 4.4 1.1 0.0 0.1 .250
22. Elliot Williams DNP due to a knee injury
23. Trevor Booker 65 1063 11.7 8.5 1.2 1.4 15.3 .582
24. Damion James 25 403 9.8 7.6 1.8 1.1 10.1 .477
25. Dominique Jones 18 135 11.2 6.7 5.1 0.8 10.6 .400
26. Quincy Pondexter 66 734 9.2 4.3 1.4 0.5 8.5 .482
27. Jordan Crawford 42 1027 17.2 3.7 4.1 0.1 11.8 .416
28. Greivis Vasquez 70 860 10.4 3.1 6.3 0.2 9.4 .493
29 Daniel Orton DNP
30. Lazar Hayward 42 419 13.7 6.0 2.4 0.6 10.8 .464
Of the players drafted in the second round only Landry Fields made much of a contribution.
I know this is a small sample size and means absolutely nothing but I make a few surmises from this data.
1. I could learn some lessons from Mr. Von Horn on how to present data better
2. Most of the players that made fairly significant contributions to their teams were on teams that were not playoff contenders
3. The other players that were talked about by BrewHoop posters prior to the draft(I remember Bradley and Anderson getting buzz)weren't any better than Sanders really
4. What was supposed to be a quality draft with a lot of depth doesn't seem to be as of yet. Even of the player taken 1-14 only Wall and Cousins(possibly Monroe) had really solid seasons
Is Larry Sanders going to be a quality NBA player? If you had a re-do on the draft what would have been your pick?
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I think waaaay to early to call Sanders a bust... he's an a very steep learning curve.
He was billed as a “project” coming out and I don’t think he even played HS ball until he was 16, or something like that. Kind of a big deal when you consider most in the NBA began playing ball in grade school and organized ball by middle school.
I doubt he’ll ever be an all star, but 6’11’ guys w/ his wing span are a rarity. I’ll be tickled if he becomes a solid PF/C off the bench. Didn’t he have a 14/10/8blk game last yr filling in for Bogut?
He seems a prime candidate for the D-league [along w/ Hobson], but we all know how the Bucks feel about that…
This post highlights the misery of NBA Hell. If you aren't drafting in the top 10 (okay, top 5), don't expect to get a difference maker.
This puts Sanders back into proper perspective just by noting there wasn’t much of an opportunity cost associated with picking Sanders. At least for the time being (and probably in perpetuity).
I suppose you could start to bring up different concepts of bust or disappointment, because one thing that has frustrated all of us is that Sanders hasn’t yet made the most of his talents on the floor. He has interesting potential as a shot-blocking threat, a finisher in transition and a pick and pop player, but nothing has impressed me thus far with his actual production. Maybe it will be a case of a project player that doesn’t pan out, but it feels like there is still some value beneath the surface.
SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | Twitter: @stevevonhorn
Also, perhaps I can help in presentation, but it depends on how you assembled the data? Excel sheet?
I have a quick fix for excel, but my cut and past from your post didn’t come out right.
SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | Twitter: @stevevonhorn
by Steve von Horn on Dec 23, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
We're big fans of Google spreadsheets for sharing data
Takes some experimentation to get the embedding right, but it’s probably the best solution IMO.
by Frank Madden on Dec 23, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions
The good news is, if he appears to be a bust, JH will get rid of him. Quickly.
But I’d like to see atleast one more yr from him before I call him a bust.
Certain players are just late-bloomers….
By the way
I am not calling him a bust yet, I was just responding to some of the posts I saw, it’s another case of saying he was a bad pick but not looking at the whole draft and seeing that there weren’t many better. I propose D-League for 20 games or so, then sink or swim baby. I’ll have to try google spreadsheets, thanks for the tip Frank.
"He always plays like he's a pit bull that hasn't been fed in about a year and that you've got pork chops in your pockets and that's the basketball." Of course, he's Canadian
Good post, CB
Amazing how poorly that draft has panned out so far…
Agree with Victor and Steve that we’re still a ways from calling time on Sanders—and to be clear, I don’t think Alexander’s departure had as much to do with his on-court production as his coachability and actions off it.
As Steve was alluding to, Sanders’ advanced stats are mind-bogglingly bad. His rebound rate is poor, TS% unacceptable for a big man, and his on/off differential is by far the worst on the team. Thankfully it’s not a question of physical skills or basic talent (well, his hands will probably always be bad, but…). He’s got terrific length, he’s quick as a cat and we’ve all seen him show off that nice jumper in fits and starts. You hope it’s just a matter of finding his niche, having the game slow down a bit and developing good habits. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t. But it will probably be a couple years before we know if he’s going to be quality NBA player or not.
Sleepy Sanders
He needs to wake up and realize he is in the big time. HIs play at the end of the MACC fund game was disturbing. He looked lost. He makes the play and it is game over.
He is clearly a major project and we do not have time for that in a shortened season.
Oh, right, wait until next year.
With young players,
They get at least 3 years to figure things out (barring injury). Sanders is no exception; his development this year will determine his ceiling.
The D-League could work wonders for his offense, his defensive discipline (i.e. avoiding fouls), and his overall confidence. Whether or not Skiles/Hammond choose to use it is another story (who else is going to reliably fill in at the 5?) When I ran a franchise in NBA 2K11, I put Sanders in the D-League and he tore the place up. Honestly, any pick after #12 should start their season in the D-League unless there’s a major shortage at their position on their NBA squad.
I would have loved Jordan Crawford, but at 15 it wouild have been a bit of a reach. Plus, his inexperience mitigated his already-inefficient game, so he wouldn’t have helped the offense until he figured things out.
http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.
by Mitchell Maurer on Dec 23, 2011 11:53 PM CST reply actions
So quick
I know it’s what have you done for me lately, but people are calling a guy who was acknowledged as very raw on draft day a bust after one year in the league? If he doesn’t develop during his rookie contract, maybe it was a bad pick, but what expectations were there to be busted?
I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.
That's the reason I posted
What were people expecting? Kid played 800 minutes last year, has had no meaningful basketball since April, missed the first exhibition game and some people freaked out because he didn’t play well at crunch time on Wedensday. If he hasn’t developed any further next year maybe he’s a bust but right now, he is still a project with some great gifts.
"He always plays like he's a pit bull that hasn't been fed in about a year and that you've got pork chops in your pockets and that's the basketball." Of course, he's Canadian
by CanadaBucks on Dec 24, 2011 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
I have been disappointed in his poor decision making on the floor.
Perhaps if he would have had another summer league and a full training camp, this is something Sanders could have developed. It is difficult to simulate game situations when working out on his own or with a trainer. He needs game time experience to know how to react in certain situations. That is why I have advocated D league. His physical tools are great, but he just has to learn to be a player in this league.
by Brick's house on Dec 24, 2011 4:29 PM CST up reply actions
Sanders BLK% = 6.5%
McGee lead all qualifiers w/ 6.7%
Serge Ibaka was 2nd w/ 6.5%
He’s not a bust. He will contribute defensively at the NBA level, and will be starting material if he finds an offensive game.
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by Real 2K Insider on Dec 25, 2011 8:43 AM CST reply actions
BLK% is an interesting stat that I'm not sure exactly what to do with.
I certainly signals a skill at seeking out shot attempts and making sure they don’t reach the rim, but often times there is an element of selfishness at play too with the highlight shot-blockers. Rather than stay home and give proper help, guys like Sanders and McGee roam for the next highlight block, and it leads so countless defensive breakdowns on the interior.
McGee has been especially egregious in this regard when I have watched Wizards games. Too many easy dunks and layups when an opponent makes the extra pass. Not to mention the fact that McGee has been a part of some terrible defensive units, which is enough for skepticism right off the bat.
I’m not writing off Sanders, and I see his potential as an interior defender, but his shot blocking needs to come within the context of disciplined defense to mean much to the team.
SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | Twitter: @stevevonhorn
by Steve von Horn on Dec 25, 2011 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
Not only that but body position
And a charging foul give guaranteed turnover where a blocked shot might be a 50/50 proposition. Blocked shots look great but sometimes they are overused as a defensive stat.
"He always plays like he's a pit bull that hasn't been fed in about a year and that you've got pork chops in your pockets and that's the basketball." Of course, he's Canadian
Agreezied for sheezied.
SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | Twitter: @stevevonhorn
by Steve von Horn on Dec 25, 2011 6:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
do they record charges taken? they should weigh one charge for every two or three blocked shots
BLOCK – ball either goes out of bounds, for either team, or stays in play.
Commentary says – “get that sh*t outta here” “not on my court baby” “no way jose”
CHARGE – guaranteed turnover, racked up another foul on the opposition, makes the cutters and slashers think twice about doing it again and puts them offside with ref after whining like someone stole their christmas present from under the tree.
Commentary says – “hmmm, lets look at the replay, oh yeah that was a charge…yawn”
by mbox on Jan 1, 2012 2:31 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree, Dwight Howard is the worst about blocking shots into the third row.
A guy as athletically gifted as Howard should have the ability to swat his blocked shots to team mates or tip them to himself like Bill Russell. He just looks stupid every time he blocks a shot out of bounds.
by Brick's house on Jan 1, 2012 6:35 PM CST up reply actions
IIRC there was some study done a year or two ago that looked at post-block possession
I believe Howard was the worst in the league in terms of creating team possessions from blocks, Duncan the best.
Also, it looks like HoopData is tracking charges again this year—I know they couldn’t last year because the NBA changed the way it tracked its play-by-play stats.
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