Brandon Jennings 2012 Mid-Season Report Card

by Steve von Horn on Mar 1, 2012 11:40 AM CST in Originals

Brandon Jennings. I've probably said enough already. Yet the fate of the Milwaukee Bucks is largely tied to the third-year point guard's development, so here we are back at the drawing board. I created a series of statistical benchmarks using NBA point guard averages from the last five seasons before the start of the 2011-12 campaign, and the mid-point of the season is a great time to check in Jennings to see how much progress he has made.

It's entirely possible that too much has been written about Brandon Jennings. From my story on whether the Milwaukee Bucks should make him the core of a rebuilding project, to a further explanation of why I don't think so, to Mitchell's passionate retort, to Mitchell's concern about the big market comments, to my last best hope for turning Jennings into a centerpiece player, there are more than enough words to cover every angle of his role with the team. Even so, let's keep ourselves honest and check in to see how he is doing in 2011-12.

If you've forgotten about the whole project (or are new to it), make sure to check out the introduction and the preview for Jennings. In essence, here is what I did:

Positional averages for shooting efficiency tend to be pretty consistent year-to-year, so I jumped on hoopdata.com and looked up the average values at both positions for the last five seasons. I then used the lowest and highest average values to create thresholds for success, tolerable performance, and failure.

For example, with FG% for PGs, I used the lowest overall average (42.9%) and the highest overall average (44.2) to mark the thresholds for success and failure. Simple enough, right? Since we can't know the actual season averages for the upcoming year in advance, this allows us to use the most reasonable values for our benchmarks. The basic idea for Jennings is that below average efficiency should be considered a failure, while anything above positional averages should be considered a success.

Here's why I did it:

Logicians refer to the stated problem as the multiple endpoints phenomenon. The idea is that if you have a specific measure of success or failure, they become more difficult to achieve, but if success or failure remain generalized concepts, they become much easier to achieve because they include wider sets of outcomes. The problem is magnified when a specific criteria is either implied or asserted, but a generalized criteria is actually used. The phrase "Brandon Jennings will have a solid season" leaves a very generalized criteria that could mean many different things to many different people. Without attempting to specify the meaning of all possible outcomes, the test is no longer objective, and we expose ourselves to the risk that the claim will receive support too easily.

Here's how Jennings' first half of the season rates out relative to positional averages in the NBA:

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Comments

Dammit, Steve

I’m convinced you’re trolling me now.

I would be interested to see the timeline for each of these stats over the course of the season. For example, when did the wheels start falling off? Because for a while there, Brandon was at least tolerable on all those metrics (save perhaps defense).

Is this possible? Can we pinpoint a game or stretch of games when Brandon went from making me look smart to making you look smart?

http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.

by Mitchell Maurer on Mar 1, 2012 12:04 PM CST reply actions

Has to be..

The week when the All-Star reserves were announced. That’s when the change most noticeably took place. After the 2nd Heat win I believe

by jtcooky on Mar 1, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions

I think it's games in months that started with "F"

IIRC the Miami game was 02/01/2012 and since then http://soundbible.com/30-Bomb-Dropping.html

And really ~~Victor S.~~ Steve, I was expecting an “A” from you.

They've got just enough talent and skill that teams will keep signing them and hoping they put the pieces together, until all of a sudden eight years have passed and they're John Salmons.(Rafe Bartholemew)

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions

Lol. I'm still not victor s.

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by Steve von Horn on Mar 1, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions

He did have it all together for about 15 games, but it slowly deteriorated from there, Mitchell.

He’s just basically doing what he has done his whole career.

When I wrote the big, time to move on piece, that was after 2500 NBA shots. How many do we really need before we know what kind of shooter/scorer he is?

SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest - News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | SB Nation Basketball - Scores & More | Twitter: @stevevonhorn

by Steve von Horn on Mar 1, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions

My whole thing on BJ has been

Last summer was not the time to trade him. I was hoping to get his value up this year(worked for a bit)and then make a decision. he is nowhere near being worth anything close to a max contract so I’d start(slowly)working the phones. He has value to other teams but I wouldn’t trade him for a pick lower than 10(at this moment). Just for clarification I am guessing that a team cannot trade a draft pick twice i.e. Chicago owns Charlotte’s 1st but it is lottery protected. Once Charlotte is officially eliminated ffrom the playoffs, can the pick be traded?

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions

He's not a primary scorer on a bad team

But as a secondary scorer? I would love to give it a shot.

http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.

by Mitchell Maurer on Mar 1, 2012 3:31 PM CST up reply actions

If you get a big that can score down low

I think it helps BJ in more ways than one. That’s why I liked the Bogut/Jefferson scenario from a couple nights ago. As I said, I’ll deal now for a possible top 10 pick but nothing less(not likely happening)

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 3:41 PM CST up reply actions

yikes....

by jtcooky on Mar 1, 2012 12:04 PM CST reply actions

An alternate title:

BRANDON JENNINGS Y U NO SHOOT GUD

http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.

by Mitchell Maurer on Mar 1, 2012 12:13 PM CST reply actions

Ok I got a question(Palomba don't read this)

I understand why BJ takes flack from the fans and why there’s such a division on him but how does Carlos Delfino escape the bashing. He is a career 40% shooter(don’t know what league averages are at his spot)better at 3s than BJ I know, but barely gets to the line, doesn’t get a ton of assists or boards although his steals/minute are good. I know people always refer to him as “a glue guy” but what does he do to escape scrutiny? The other night during the game thread someone suggested a trade to LA and people were getting upset. Help me understand this, I have nothing against Delfino just think he’s a 8th or 9th guy getting way too many minutes(And I have suggested that Skiles bench Jennings or sit him at the end so it’s not just Delfino).

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 1:11 PM CST reply actions

I think it's a pretty simple answer...

Jennings is a hot button because he takes the most shots on the team, the Bucks will likely have to pay a ton of money to keep him, and he actually has some positive trade value. That means keeping him has a high opportunity cost, so the debate about what to do with him is especially important.

Meanwhile, no one wants to build around Carlos Delfino, he’s only paid $3.5m per year, and there would be no political fallout if he was benched. He’s just a useful role player, which is why I personally don’t get too bent out of shape either way about him. I’m not big on trading him simply because he wouldn’t bring back much in return.

www.BrewHoop.com

by Frank Madden on Mar 1, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions

Ok fair enough, I personally think he's Skiles security blanket

By the way I don’t want to pay a lot of money too keep Jennings, explore options for the summer unless you can get a top 10 pick for him now.

Just wondered because Delfino rarely generates any talk.(that might be a good thing)

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

It's ok, Canada

I’m not bothered at all. As you seem to dislike Carlos, I disliked Boykins and now I’m disliking Jax and I realize my critical disposition goes beyond what their game objectively show. Why? Maybe because they don´t have what I would normally expect on players like them: I couldn’t bear Boykins lack of vision and I cannot stand the abysmal difference between Jackson’s blah blah and the reality of his game. Or maybe taste. Or I don´t know.

Going to Carlos, I obviously don’t believe he is a superstar and, for worst, he’s not having a good season. And even If he was having one, it would not be enough to change the Bucks current status. A similar case for me is Ersan who´s having the NBA season of his life but his impact at changing Milwaukee’s fortune is nil.

But, believe me, I don’t know if you’ll find such a good second fiddler as Carlos. Put him alongside with a good first guitarist and he will be happy to keep the rhythm and find a way to brighten his partner’s solos. I believed that was what happened with Bogut. Now that the big man´s out, I don´t see he has find a role for him in the team other than defending.

Feel free not to answer me if that was the true reason you didn’t want me to read :)

by palomba on Mar 1, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions

It's nothing against him

Just think he gets too much burn for what he does, it started last year and keeps going on. If he was getting 10-20 mpg, I wouldn’t say anything.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 5:21 PM CST up reply actions

I agree...

I really like Carlos – but he’s a role player who is getting too many mpg, considering his production IMO.

I love his defense and versatility – but it’s time for T Harris to start seeing 20+mpg.

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

Canada/Victor

Lets imagine that Carlos comes from the bench and plays 10/15 minutes. In which game scenarios will you throw him in? What deficiency will him eventually help to fix?

by palomba on Mar 2, 2012 8:51 AM CST up reply actions

I think he has value as a shooter and defender

In the second unit.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 2, 2012 9:11 AM CST up reply actions

fair assessment?

I wonder if this kind of statistical analysis is a worthwhile predictor of actual value given the utter disarray that is the rest of the roster. Who does BJ have to feed the rock to? Who else is going to take the shots? Like others have said in other threads, BJ seems like the kind of guy that will thrive in an uptempo system as a 2nd or 3rd option. For the past three years, he’s been saddled with being The Guy (or at least The Guy We Expect To Be The Guy Very Soon).

Not to say I would be against moving him for the right price – though I think ever getting a top 10 pick for him is a pipe dream given the way most NBA GMs view the world. I just think we’re never going to realize his true value while he’s wallowing on a weak team in a system that doesn’t seem to fit his skill set.

by swilldog on Mar 1, 2012 1:54 PM CST reply actions

For the record

I don’t think you get a top 10 pick either, just saying I’m not trading him now unless I can get that, otherwise I wait.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

I'll be the first to ask.

Brandon Jennings and Ersan(?) for Rondo?

Would you do it/would the Celtics do it?

by Connor Roberts on Mar 1, 2012 1:54 PM CST reply actions

Even though I don't think Rondo is the right PG for this team atm

I take that in a Moosonee minute.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 2:07 PM CST up reply actions

Yep.

I’m curious how much the C’s are demanding for Rondo.

www.BrewHoop.com

by Frank Madden on Mar 1, 2012 9:03 PM CST up reply actions

Is today supposed to be the

D12 decision? Might this mean something for Jax?

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 2:00 PM CST reply actions

it all starts today

dallas has a handful of guys that weren’t eligible to trade until today, same with orlando, i think maybe jersey had a few

but yeah pretty much every team that has a shot for D12 is free to rock and roll now.

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by Charlie_Buckets on Mar 1, 2012 3:21 PM CST up reply actions

I thought I read somewhere

That he was talking to Otis Thorpe today re: his intentions to stay/go etc.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 3:28 PM CST up reply actions

I am not sure if Otis Thorpe cares one wit whether Howard stays with the Magic or not ;)

Otis Smith may have some concerns on the topic, though. Got your 90s era lunch pail power forwards mixed up, eh? I wonder what Thorpe is doing these days.

by Brick's house on Mar 1, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

My bad, thanks

I really liked Thorpe having seen a lot of Big East basketball when I lived in the Syracuse viewing area.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

LOVED Otis Thorpe!

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 5:23 PM CST up reply actions

Very underrated guy.

www.BrewHoop.com

by Frank Madden on Mar 1, 2012 9:04 PM CST up reply actions

Really fast PGs who shoot like crap and are mediocre passers are a dime a dozen...

I’d be easier on BJ if he was an elite defender – but he’s not. He also seems to be a flake.

And for those who say there is no one on the team to pass to…. Nash is avg over 10 apg on a horrible Suns team – and Beno [yes, BENO!] avg over 5apg on a reeeealy bad Kings team last yr.

So there! ; )

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 5:22 PM CST reply actions

Steve Nash is on a whole 'nother level.

And Beno isn’t bad…just not that good.

http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.

by Mitchell Maurer on Mar 1, 2012 5:43 PM CST up reply actions

I'm just sayin that a lot of folks blame BJs lack of apg on his teammates

And while there might be a sliver of truth to that – I was simply stating that a legit PG can get apg if he really wants/knows how to, even on a bad team.

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 6:06 PM CST up reply actions

Good take on Beno, MM ; )

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 6:07 PM CST up reply actions

I know he's having a bad yr in Portland - but Felton was playing like an all-star w/ NY last yr

I guess he’s been out of shape all season. I’ve always liked his game, though.

I think he’ll be a FA after this yr. Wouldn’t mind seeing him in Milw.

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 5:27 PM CST reply actions

Raymond Felton?

He’s the same as BJ, except plays better defense at the expense of worse outside shooting. Plus, he thrives in an up-tempo environment…which we are unfortunately not.

http://twitter.com/WhalesLarry ...but only if you want to see someone still trying to figure Twitter out.

by Mitchell Maurer on Mar 1, 2012 5:46 PM CST up reply actions

Felton is terrible. He's been benched. Product of the system in NY.

They can do better.

SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest - News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | SB Nation Basketball - Scores & More | Twitter: @stevevonhorn

by Steve von Horn on Mar 1, 2012 5:52 PM CST up reply actions

Would you do BJ for Felton?

Didn’t think so

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 6:10 PM CST up reply actions

No.

Nobody is allowed to think so. I’d shut em down.

SB Nation Brew Hoop - Editor | SB Nation Midwest - News Desk Contributor | SB Nation Chicago - Writer | SB Nation Basketball - Scores & More | Twitter: @stevevonhorn

by Steve von Horn on Mar 1, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions

we seem to be pretty uptempo this year (5th in pace?)

but no i don’t really fancy mr. felton either.

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by Charlie_Buckets on Mar 1, 2012 5:53 PM CST up reply actions

I'd take a flyer on him in the off-season [provided his in shape] could probably get him cheap

He’s always been a plus defender and good passer.

And his last yr in Cha was pretty damn good – 46%fg, 38%on 3’s, 12ppg & 6apg – and he was very good in NY, as well.

I’d still be fine w/ Milw trading BJ for a pick and going w/ Beno & SL [if they keep him] for next yr – or getting a guy like Felton at the right price.

by victor s on Mar 1, 2012 6:02 PM CST reply actions

Here is something we need to do

Call Tim Duncan and verify him as a work reference for Stephen Jackson.

“Tim Duncan always steps up for me and says I was the ultimate teammate”-Multiple Interviews

Some media folks seems to be taking this verbatim where as I believe Mr. Jackson may be, just slightly, a little bit, sort of, COMPLETELY taking this out of context AKA he averaged 12/3/3 for one season with a team that opted not to resign him and managed to win 2 of the next 4 NBA championships without him.

BTW SJax full name is Stephen Jesse Jackson. that is awesome

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by Charlie_Buckets on Mar 1, 2012 6:55 PM CST reply actions

Real conversation

Jax repeatedly tweets Duncan saying “aren’t I the greatest teammate ever”……after the 100th time Duncan tweets back “ya w/e stfu”

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 7:03 PM CST up reply actions

Why Trade Brandon?

Brandon Jennings is clearly a work-in-progress. It is his 3rd year in the league and he came in with no college basketball experience. To everyone’s surprise, he helped lead the team to the playoffs as a rookie (regardless of the statistics). He brought real excitement to a dormant franchise and showed flashes of brilliance. With the iffy health of Andrew Bogut, he has had the burden of trying to carry a pretty bad team to the playoffs. That shouldn’t be his burden at this stage in his career.

What do the Bucks have to lose to play this one out and see if he can grow into a very good pg? I would like to see if the magic can be recreated with a truly healthy Bogut. Raymond Felton, Beno Udrih and Shaun Livingston are not going to make the Bucks any better and have little upside. I am afraid that if we trade Jennings, we are looking at a major rebuilding project. Bucks’ management doesn’t have the appetite for that (nor do most of the fans). Even if we get a top draft pick (which isn’t likely), who is to say that we will draft anyone better than Brandon Jennings? I think that the odds are clearly less than 50:50 evident in the Bucks’ recent draft history.

by bwpngold on Mar 1, 2012 7:30 PM CST reply actions

Why trade Jennings

If he’s looking for a max contract down the road would be my reasoning.

by CanadaBucks on Mar 1, 2012 7:43 PM CST up reply actions

Not At This Point

Brandon Jennings has certainly not earned a max deal at this point. He will need to be a top pg to earn that type of contract. If he gets to that level of play, I expect that the Bucks will gladly pay him.

by bwpngold on Mar 1, 2012 8:53 PM CST up reply actions

You can bet some people in the NBA probably think he can get better for the reasons you mentioned, which is also why the Bucks have to at least consider dealing him. The older he gets, the less you can hide behind the youth/potential/upside argument, and after the last month it’s hard to say how much he’s really improved since he first entered the NBA.

It’s tough, because he was so good in January and then he follows it up with an absolute stinker in February. What comes next?

www.BrewHoop.com

by Frank Madden on Mar 1, 2012 9:09 PM CST up reply actions

I think that it is far riskier to trade him. I am afraid that he will make us look very bad if he gets on a good team where he isn’t asked to carry the team. Milwaukee needs to build that type of team around him.

by bwpngold on Mar 1, 2012 9:58 PM CST reply actions

all sp/grammer aside

you make a good point. but the reason you give veterans a longer leash is because you know exactly what to from them. gooden doesnt request a max salary (although IMO is about 10-12% above his pay grade) BUT
A. Gooden isn’t responsible for d-ing up PG..that would be your boy brandon.
and
B. The problem with Brandon, as mention before, is he is turning into Mo Williams instead of the Iversonesque player that people have anticipated out of him. So yeah I wouldn’t mind keeping him, but anything more than 6-7 a year over 3-4? Nah. I’ll stick with Livingston and Udrih and spend money elsewhere

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by Charlie_Buckets on Mar 2, 2012 12:01 AM CST reply actions