Extension considerations: A study of 5 young point guards looking for $$$

The 2009 draft class ended up being stacked with point guards. At least half a dozen of them are starters right now actually.

For the sake of this exercise I’ll be discussing possible contract extensions & hone in on five of them in particular:

Jrue Holiday - 76'ers

Jeff Teague - Hawks

Brandon Jennings - Bucks

Ty Lawson - Nuggets

Stephen Curry - Warriors

Who is the better player right now? Who has the bigger upside? Who is the most efficient? Who offers the most to their team as a facilitator?

In some ways beauty is in the eye of the beholder; especially when you take into account the natural phenomena of fan-bias toward their favoured home-team PG. But the reality is that the intangibles that most fans may be unaware of such as: locker room attitude; a players desire to stay or go; how much a player actually thinks they deserve etc, will significantly contribute to the outcome of whether they get their extension in advance of any RFA (restricted FA) process.

For a simplistic statistical comparison of these five players I’ll list each players ESPN PER per 40 mins (ranked) for the 10-11 season & also the 11-12 shortened season.

2010/2011 PER

  1. Curry 19.46
  2. Lawson 17.9
  3. Jennings 15.66
  4. Holliday 15.49
  5. Teague 14.62

2011/2012 PER

  1. Curry 21.23
  2. Lawson 19.43
  3. Jennings 18.46
  4. Teague 15.83
  5. Holliday 14.74

Comparing them this way seems to indicate that Curry has the edge over the other four guys in-terms of efficiency etc when he is on the floor. The problem is he has missed more games the others, especially last season where he played in only 23 of 66 games due to his ankle issues.

The other thing is that we are talking about the PG position, and Curry has one of the lower assist to turnover numbers in this group at 2.12, whilst Ty Lawson tops the group at 2.69. Interestingly though the spread isn’t particularly large, and considering that 1st yr PG (& Rookie of the Year) Kyrie Irving put up 1.72 & Jeremy Lin 1.71, these numbers are reasonably solid from scoring PG options such as these 5 kids.

Jennings scores more than the others, but he also shoots it more often and at a lower clip thus his efficiency rate is 3rd out of the 5 guys.

The assists per 48 mins stat is interesting with Ty Lawson & Stephen Curry both hovering around the 8.8 to 9 barrier the past 2 seasons, and Jrue Holliday, Jennings & Teague around the mid 7’s.

So all in all, I’d probably rank them this way right now & perhaps that’s how their salaries should / will play out. I think that Curry’s ankle affects his price somewhat & Denver rarely overpays someone it seems, so I think they’ll likely end up with the best bang for their buck (per year) with Lawson. Ty also hasn’t performed for as long as Jennings & Curry at a high level (across 3 yr career to date).

Jennings will get a good deal as Milwaukee are desperate to keep him (I don’t blame them). Holliday & Teague are less flashy then their three other colleagues + they have more fancied superstars on their teams (Bynum, Josh Smith) so I think that drives their price down a bit.

  1. Curry 4 yrs – 50 million
  2. Lawson 4 yrs – 44 million
  3. Jennings 4 yrs – 48 million
  4. Holliday 4 yrs – 42 million
  5. Teague 4 yrs – 38 million

Now as this is a "fan post" this is simply my opinion, and in theory all 5 of these young PG’s could be seeking the max (4 yrs, 58 million) like Hibbert & Eric Gordon got. Remember that Batum also got $46 million for 4 yrs.

Keen to here how you rank these guys & what you think their worth. Remember that if teams lets them slip to RFA, they may end up paying a stack (or not).

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