Brian Windhorst in Cleveland says it's done: the Bucks, Cavs, and Sonics will be completing a trade shortly that sends Mo Williams to Cleveland, Luke Ridnour, Damon Jones, and Adrian Griffin to Milwaukee and Desmond Mason and Joe Smith to Oklahoma City.

As we broke down yesterday, Ridnour's been disappointing the past two seasons but is owed far less on his current deal than Mo: $13 million total for the next two seasons compared to Williams' $43 million over the next five.  Jones had a quasi-breakout season with the Bucks in 03/04 following the injury to T.J. Ford and has an expiring deal worth $4.46 million. Griffin is a journeyman swingman who previously played for Scott Skiles in Chicago, but his $1.711 million 08/09 salary is reportedly non-guaranteed. 

In sum the Bucks would be shipping out $13.653 million while adding $12.671 million, providing about  $1 million additional room under the 08/09 luxury tax.  If Griffin is cut then the deal would net them about $2.7 million under the tax this year, but they probably won't be able to spend it all anyway.  Since Mason was expiring, the 09/10 benefit is simply the difference between Williams' and Ridnour's deals, which is $1.853 million.  The bigger cap benefits would come the following summer when Ridnour's deal comes off the books.

Acquiring two point guards for Williams leaves the Bucks with a logjam in the backcourt--Ramon Sessions, Tyronn Lue, Jones, and Ridnour would all be battling for time.  And if the Francisco Elson signing still happens as expected then the Bucks would be at the maximum roster size of 15.  That might suggest the Bucks aren't done dealing, but in moving Williams and Mason's expiring deal they now only have Charlie Villanueva left as an obvious trade chip--and they might be too thin at PF to deal him anyway. 

Meanwhile, Jones, Ridnour, and Griffin, cannot be traded with any other players for two months, but could be traded individually at any point.   So hypothetically if Miami decided they wanted Luke Ridnour tomorrow, they could have him for Udonis Haslem straight up (not that I'm expecting that to happen).  The current roster assuming the deal happens and Elson is also signed:

PG: Sessions/Lue/Ridnour/Jones
SG: Redd/Bell
SF: Jefferson/Alexander/Mbah a Moute/Griffin
PF: Villanueva/Allen
C: Bogut/Elson/Gadzuric

The guard situation in particular seems a bit odd, so I'm curious to see what the spin ends up being from the Bucks' perspective.  Clearly Mo Williams was viewed by the Bucks as deadweight in spite of his offensive productivity, and one can only assume that the trade market for him was minimal given the lack of discussion up until now.  Most Bucks fans would agree that the Mo/Redd combination just wasn't going to work--having two scorers in the backcourt who don't defend is awfully tough to pull off.  And since the Jefferson trade there's been a clear message that Redd was staying, which left Williams as the odd man out.

Talent-wise the Bucks would clearly get the short end of the stick, but then again the questions about Mo have never been related to talent.  Clearly the Bucks view this as addition by subtraction, though that might be tougher to sell to the average fan. The Bucks will get some financial benefits over the next two years and then even more flexibility once Ridnour's deal is up in 2010, but the near-term benefits won't be the same as they would have gotten in a straight salary dump. That suggests Hammond and Skiles do see Ridnour as more than just cap relief, though it's not clear what the point guard pecking order will look like once the dust settles.

As for Mo, he could be a terrific fit next to LeBron in Cleveland, where he'll also be surrounded by a more defensive starting lineup than in Milwaukee.

Three for the road? (rotobob.com)

Ryne Nelson at Slam lists Charlie Villanueva among seven talented players who don't deserve big contracts.

The problem with Villanueva is his flaming inconsistency. Most nights he won’t be anything on the court. He’ll be a complete non-factor. Write him off. Forget about him. Pretend he’s from Milwaukee and never give him a second thought.

Then, there’s other nights when he literally doesn’t miss a shot. On these nights, Villanueva looks like Lamar Odom…with much less hair and a game that’s 10 times better.

VNuv's seeming inability to string together multiple big games is often lamented by Bucks fans, so we know where Ryne is coming from here. One of the issues is that the nights Nelson refers to when CV doesn't miss a shot are often characterized by deft three-point shooting. Yes, that is a problem.

In his only two 30+ point games this past season (March 5 and April 9) Villanueva made a combined 10-18 from downtown. Since his best games come when he pours in threes, it's a little easier to understand why the power forward hoisted 2.4 three-pointers per game last season. Even if that doesn't sound like a ton, it is.

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Here's the third part of our interview with Bucks GM John Hammond. Check out Part I and Part II here.  Thanks again to John for so generously providing his time last Friday.

Viewed individually, it was easy to like the three players John Hammond acquired on draft day. Richard Jefferson provided the Bucks an athletic, high-scoring forward. Joe Alexander brought athleticism and upside in spades, as well as the attitude and coachability to reach that potential.  And in the second round, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute gave the Bucks another athletic forward who prided his game on defense--a novel concept for pro basketball in Wisconsin.

Taken together however, the acquisition of three small forwards in one day begs the question of whether the Bucks would have been better off giving more weight to positional need, especially given the power forward shortage created by Yi's departure.  Not surprisingly, Hammond is unapologetic over acquiring the guys he felt were the best players available and sees his forwards' flexibility as key attributes going forward.

"Our goal is to have the best players you can possibly have.  Someone told me years ago that you are what you guard, and I think Richard Jefferson can guard multiple positions.  I think Joe can and I think Luc can.  So I think those guys are all multiple position players."

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• Check out the video above and get to know Bucks second rounder Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Given Luc's native Cameroon is fighting for a spot in Beijing, Jill Painter of InsideSoCal.com asked him about his Olympic plans:

  ``I don't know about that,'' Mbah a Moute said. ``Right now, I'm just trying to focus on making the team and getting accustomed to the team. I'll think about Olympic stuff after that.''

  Makes sense.  Given the Bucks' crowded small forward position he'll no doubt want to get off on the right foot with the coaching staff, so expect him to be in Vegas with the Bucks' summer league squad in a couple weeks. And as much as I love that name, I'm going to be using a lot of "Luc" and "LRMaM" from here on out. 
  
• Few expected Charlie Villanueva would outlast Yi Jianlian as a member of the Bucks (myself included), but Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News writes that Villanueva is likely to be shipped out soon as well.

  No surprise that the Bucks are looking to send Charlie Villanueva to the first place they can find. He'll never last with Scott Skiles.

  Not many people would argue with that last point, though the problem is that Villanueva is now the only true power forward currently on the Bucks' roster. Given their lack of cap space and the threat of luxury tax issues in 09/10, the Bucks are unlikely to find more than a stop-gap solution to their power forward problem in free agency this summer.  Especially given that Joe Alexander is expected to sign within the next week or so, thus making him untradable for 30 days, that leaves John Hammond with Villanueva, Mo Williams and Desmond Mason as assets he can use to solve his PF shortage (yes, I'll assume Redd is unlikely to be moved at this point).  Trading Mo for a PF leaves the Bucks a bit short at the point, so in simplest terms Hammond would probably have to pull off a pair of trades (Mo for a PF and CV for a PG), and even then he'd still likely need another PF.  I'm less optimistic that Desmond Mason's expiring $5.4 million deal would fetch a quality 4. 
  
• How about bringing back Michael Ruffin on another minimum-level deal?  No, he can't do anything offensively and you don't want him playing a lot of minutes, but he still provided enough rebounding and defense to be a very good value last year.  In fact, Ruffin led the Bucks in net +/-, and his lack of offensive ambition isn't as problematic with the likes of Redd, Jefferson, Bogut and Williams (if he's around) on the roster. You don't want to sign him with the intent of making him a starter, but the Bucks don't have that many options right now.
  
• Michael Hunt writes that Mike Redd and his fellow Olympians have only one option: gold.
• Joe Alexander's rise from probable first rounder to mid-lottery pick has been well-chronicled, but if you have ESPN Insider be sure to take a look at Chad Ford's report on Alexander's pre-draft work with Joe Abunassar. Given the debate about whether he can play PF, I found it interesting that Alexander measured 6'7.25" without shoes and 6'8.25" with shoes in Orlando, yet Ford reports that he measured 6'7.75" in socks and 6'9" in shoes during his pre-draft training.  Why am I not surprised?  And aside from some nice workout video, Ford also does his part to add to the legend of Joe:

  Steve said that Alexander would spend hours in the basement dribbling a basketball with headphones on. One time, he and his wife left to go shopping. He yelled at Alexander in the basement and told him they'd be right back. Three hours later they returned and Alexander was still in the basement, dripping with sweat, still dribbling the basketball.
  
  "Joe didn't really have a girlfriend in school," Steve said. "If he could've dated his basketball, then I guess, he would have dated. Basketball has always been his one true love."

Sleepy Joe: Alexander takes a snooze in the Cousins Center lobby. (Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

• Alex reports from Summerfest where Joe Alexander was in his element.
• Sportsbubbler delivers video from the Alexander press conference while Charles Gardner provides a recap.There's an allusion there to Alexander possibly wearing the same #8 jersey Marques Johnson wore, but it looks like the jersey they presented him was simply an "08" jersey printed up for whomever the Bucks picked in the 2008 draft. I'll guess Alexander ends up wearing #11, following in the miniature footsteps of T.J. Ford, whom the Bucks happened to pick eighth five years ago.  Chatting at ESPN before the draft, Joe warned it could get ugly if he doesn't get it:
  

  I chose 11 because it was a number I wore in middle school. I'm going to wear 11 if I can. If not, I have some serious thinking to do about whether I really want to play in this league.

  He's got a sense of humor, kids!  Needless to say, his first Braeger Chevrolet commercial should be awe-inspiring.
  
• Dave Heller at the JS has a survey of Bucks' draft grades. For the most part the spread in grades (C- to A) depend on how strongly the writers felt about drafting for quality vs. positional need. Aside from those, Jonathan Givony at DX also gives the Bucks an "A":
  

  With Jefferson in the fold, we definitely feel better about seeing Milwaukee take a chance on Joe Alexander with the 8th overall pick. He was always going to have problems stepping up from day one and justifying being drafted that high considering his lack of polish, but with Jefferson on board and minutes to be had off the bench at the 3 and especially the 4, Alexander can develop at a more reasonable pace, instead of being thrown straight into the fire.

• Ty at Bucks Diary is working overtime.  On a positive note, he breaks down the numbers and argues that Scott Skiles' defensive magic could pay immediate dividends:

  As I said above, all but one player improved his career defensive efficiency under Skiles, and the minimum improvement was 3 points per possession, with the average improvement being 5.5 points per possession. That means victories, especially in the Eastern Conference. If you project Skiles average improvement effect onto the Bucks roster from last season, and you assume that their putrid offense won't get any worse, then I estimate the "Skiles Effect" alone will add 11 wins to the Bucks record.

  It's a pretty startling stat, and there's no doubt that the 08/09 Bucks will provide a fascinating test of Skiles' incredible defensive record. In efficiency terms, Skiles' teams have typically been excellent defensively (2nd, 7th, and 1st from '04-'07 in Chicago) and below-average offensively (26th, 23rd and 21st over the same period) while playing at a fast pace.
  
  To me the question is 1) how much can Skiles really help the Bucks defensively and 2) can they still be a respectable team offensively. The Bucks were dead last in defensive efficiency last year, so there's no doubt some improvement will occur, but how much is reasonable?  The Bulls were 21st in 02/03, then 16th the following season when Skiles took over 16 games into the season.  So they were pretty bad and Skiles produced results rather quickly. I'd love to know the biggest improvement a team has made from year-to-year in that category.  For what it's worth, the world champion Celtics produced one of the best defensive performances of all time this year after ranking 16th last year. Maybe they could spare us Kevin Garnett?
  
  Secondly, the Bucks were below-average offensively last year, ranking 21st in efficiency, but I agree with Ty that as of now it's difficult to imagine the Bucks will be any worse than that. Normally you expect there to be a tradeoff of worse offense with improved defense, but it's possible the 07/08 Bucks were simply so poorly coached and unmotivated that those rules won't apply (well, we hope). Afterall, at the moment their worst starters offensively are Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, two guys capable of going for 20/10 on any given night (I'll ignore CV's offensive inefficiency for the moment). There's a solid chance Villanueva and/or Mo Williams aren't on the roster by opening night, but the addition of Jefferson alone gives the Bucks one of the most offensively potent teams in the East...at least on paper.
  
• On the flip side, Ty says Richard Jefferson's defense is in clear decline. That's somewhat understandable given he had ankle surgery two years ago, though he did play in all 82 games last season. Last year RJ's opponent PER was about the same as Desmond Mason's, but the key difference is that RJ's own production actually outpaced the guys he was guarding, which can't be said of Desmond. Both guys might suffer from having to guard the best opponent wing player more often than not, and the Nets were also better defensively when RJ wasn't on the court. Still, the Bucks were outproduced at every position in 07/08, so as long as Jefferson can be consistently better than the guy he's guarding--which wasn't true of Yi and Simmons--the trade could make a big difference.
  
• Speaking of which, how does Jefferson feel about moving to Milwaukee? Dave D'Alessandro writes he has yet to say anything about his new gig.

  Still no first-hand word from R. Jefferson on his life being turned upside down. We could tell you third-hand that he's pretty flummoxed by the whole thing, which we've heard from two of his closest friends. But he dutifully ran his camp yesterday and is at a charity golf tournament today, so we'll hold off on the rest until we hear from him personally. Which, knowing Richard, could be in October.

  D'Alessandro also mentions that the Nets could use a wing player and now have a logjam of bigs following the acquisition of both Yi and Brook Lopez. Which makes you wonder if the Bucks tried to include Desmond Mason's expiring deal and one of the Nets' young big men (Josh Boone, Sean Williams) in order to balance the trade out positionally. Of course, at the time the deal was made the Bucks hadn't actually drafted Alexander/Mbah a Moute and the the Nets didn't yet have Lopez.  So perhaps Rod Thorn and Hammond will be talking again soon.
• Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes that draft day said a great deal about the direction the Bucks are headed in.
• Jim Paschke might not have a reason to learn Chinese any more, but that doesn't mean he's not excited about the draft day wheeling and dealing.
• The Salt Lake Tribune writes that Andrew Bogut could miss Beijing entirely if he doesn't sign a new contract extension with the Bucks. Bogut has been saying that he won't play until his extension is finalized, but something tells me he might revise that stance if negotiations stall. Afterall, he's still under contract for 08/09.  From a Bucks standpoint it would be nice to lock up Bogut before he has a breakout fourth season, but you can bet agent David Bauman won't be looking to give the Bucks a bargain. The earliest Bogut can officially sign an extension is July 9 when the free agent/trade moratorium ends.

Cruising around the net, here are some of your latest notes and rumors with less than 24 hours to go until the draft:

• Sam Amico at the Pro Basketball News has a bit about Minnesota being interested in Joe Alexander, which I hadn't previously heard.

  Reports say the Timberwolves are aiming to use their third overall selection to land a veteran, or at the very least, trade down and select West Virginia forward Joe Alexander. Expect Milwaukee to get involved in these talks (if it isn’t already). The Bucks are also very high on Alexander and are considering selecing him at No. 8. That is, of course, unless the Wolves get to him first.

  The interesting part is that Amico contends the Heat will take Mayo and then trade him (maybe to the Clips?), which would leave Beasley available at the third pick. The Bucks last week were rumored to be interested in trading up for Mayo, but keep in mind that Hammond has a number of times referred to Rose/Beasley being the top two players in the draft. The Bucks landing Beasley? Apparently not as ludicrous as we thought. But still pretty ludicrous I'd guess.
  
• With all the the talk about Alexander and Randolph, I've been a little surprised that there's been no mention of Kevin Love, who could slip outside the top seven if Memphis (or whoever has their pick) passes on him for Eric Gordon or Danilo Gallinari at five. In a radio interview on Monday, Hammond mentioned the possibility of one of the "smalls" being available, but didn't say anything about Love. However, Andy Katz writes that the Bucks have "interest" in Love, but he still expects the them to go with Alexander, whom he terms "the "safest pick in the lottery." I'd have to disagree with that description, but whatever.
  
• Chad Ford still has Alexander locked in at eight, though he acknowledges Randolph is also in the mix. Ford also has a breakdown of which teams are interested in each of the prospects; the Bucks are only mentioned for Love, Randolph and Alexander. He has Randolph going no higher than the Bucks' pick but writes that Alexander could go as high as sixth to the Knicks, who "seem to be really intrigued."
• On the trade front, check out some back-and-forth over at RealGM about a rumor of Kirk Hinrich for Villanueva, Mason and the eighth pick.  As you might guess, most people aren't thrilled. Trading Mason would also mess up the Bucks' draft party at Summerfest, since Desmond is the only Buck who's supposed to be there. Quick, where's Awvee Storey?
• Dan Walsh and Jim Ganzer at the Sportsbubbler again provide some good video footage from the workout yesterday. Most notably, John Hammond sounds pretty content to stay with the eighth pick. Or at least he wants us to think he is.

• Charles Gardner catches up with Michael Redd. Redd says that John Hammond called last month and told him that he had not initiated any trade talks, but Hammond isn't making any promises either.

  "It's the least you can do, to speak to someone, because of who he is and what he means to the organization," Hammond said of his call to Redd and Skiles' visit to Ohio. "The purpose of the discussion was just to talk to him about the player he is and has been for the organization.
  
  "We are going to continue to look to improve this team, through the three procedures of the draft, free agency and trades.
  
  "The free-agent market is not as available to us, so for us, the most realistic way to improve our team is through trades, if and when a trade becomes available."

• Head over to 540 ESPN audio library for a bunch of recent Bucks interviews, including Michael Redd, Desmond Mason, Charlie Bell, and Jon McGlocklin.
• Jim Paschke writes about the Bucks' tailgate at Miller Park last week.

  Both Hammond and Skiles were very moved by the number of fans that would endure bad weather to talk Bucks basketball during the off-season. Hammond told the crowd that it was unsettling in a great way that they had this much interest in a 26-win team. John said that their loyalty and dedication should be paid back with a hard-working, successful team.

• Ty at Bucks Diary is all about Kevin Love.

  I know I'm sticking my arms, legs and everything else into the buzzsaw by recommending Love, but I'm more than willing to do so. If he flops, you can rip me forever, because you know what? I'd rather be wrong about a guy with a proven track record of production than some skinny guy from Louisiana who hasn't done diddly in his career but is in the lottery because he's "long" and seems athletic.

  As you might have noticed over the past few weeks I've been coming around on Love in a big way, especially given his promising combine results in Orlando where he also confirmed that he's got the size to play power forward in the NBA. But at this point I'd have to guess that Love's probably going to be gone by the time the Bucks pick--Minnesota could pick him as high as third or trade down a few spots, while Memphis could also use a big man to pair with Rudy Gay and their slew of young PGs. Moreover, it's unclear whether the presence of Yi Jianlian (and to a lesser extent Andrew Bogut) will have a tangible impact on the Bucks' willingness to take another big man.
  
• Not to be gossipy, but our buddy Chuck over at RealGM reports that Anthony Randolph had dinner with Scott Skiles and Kelvin Sampson at the Capital Grill last night. No word if any of the other players were also there.
• It's official: former Bucks coach Terry Porter is now the man in Phoenix. Good luck, Terry.

The Pistons/Celtics draft lottery is almost here, so if you haven't already, do check out our Viewer's Guide to the Draft Lottery.

What follows is a Bucks-based breakdown to help lend perspective on the probability the Bucks will nab the Rosey, first overall draft spot.

In short, the odds of winning this lottery are kind of like Bogut converting on an attempted three-pointer (sorry, no video), except worse. Which is to say, we'll gladly approve if it works out in the Bucks' favor.

• Games the Bucks won on the road in 2007/08: 17.1 % (7 of 41)
• Games in which Charlie Bell shot above .500 from the field in 2007/08: 14.7 % (10 of 68)
• Games in which Mo Williams had double-digit assists in 2007/08: 9.1 % (6 of 66)
• Three-pointers Andrew Bogut has made in his career: 6.7 % (1 of 15)
• Minutes Awvee Storey spent on the court for the Bucks in 2007/08: 6.6 % (258 of 3900)
• Odds the Bucks had of winning the first overall pick when they did in 2005: 6.3 % (63 of 1000)
• The probability of the Bucks winning the first overall pick: 4.3 % (43 of 1000)
• Games in which Desmond Mason led the Bucks in scoring in 2007/08: 3.4 % (2 of 59)
• Seasons the Bucks have won the NBA title in franchise history: 2.5 % (1 of 40)
• Games in which the Bucks outscored their opponents in each of the four quarters in 2007/08: 1.2 % (1 of 82)

Ilyasova's defense has been a bright spot in Spain.

When Bucks' forward Ersan Ilyasova signed with Barcelona last summer, it would have been easy to close the book on him as simply another second round pick that washed out.  Which might not seem like a big deal until you consider that in 2005, Larry Harris and Dave Babcock chose the Turkish teenager over now-familiar names like Monta Ellis, Ryan Gomes, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche and Amir Johnson. Fortunately, Ilyasova's relative youth (he just turned 21...we think) and the progress he appears to be making in Spain suggest that he could yet become a productive player in the NBA--whether it's in Milwaukee or elsewhere. 

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Scott Allen Skiles pretty consistently succeeded as a head coach in the NBA, something you wouldn't necessarily believe given he was sent out of town from his only two head coaching gigs within four years. But the numbers speak for themselves: in Phoenix, he was over .600 two of three years, and the Bulls added 28 wins in his second season coaching.

This is really worth being optimistic about. Truly.

As long as we understand that it's still, in the end, almost all about the players on the floor. Thankfully, that's where John Hammond should come in handy, because we all know by now that Skiles could channel the coaching knowledge of Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, and John Wooden and still miss 45 wins with current player personnel.

This leads us into a discussion about Skiles and the small forwards he's coached.

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