With the Bucks leading Indiana 70-49 in the third quarter, you might reasonably have turned off the radio and hit the town feeling confident of a Bucks' victory.  Afterall, the Bucks, for all their shortcomings, have been pretty much automatic against lesser teams this year, especially at home.  And if you came home and saw the Bucks' 121-103 win roll across the ticker, your first reaction would probably have been that it seemed about right.  Think again. 

A sudden fit of cold shooting allowed a presumed blowout to turn into a back-and-forth nail-biter down the stretch, as T.J. Ford's 27 and Brandon Rush's 16 helped the Pacers take a 103-102 lead with 4:41 left.  But then...well, you can do the math from there.  The Bucks suddenly woke up and scored the final 19 points of the game, as Richard Jefferson scored eight of his 20 in the final five minutes.

Three Bucks

• Andrew Bogut.  Bogut has been candid of late about his need to improve offensively, and Saturday was a damn good start.  Bogut matched his season-high with 20 rebounds (six offensive), but also tied his season-high with 20 points--including a rather shocking 8/9 from the foul line.  Bogut again coughed it up four times, but two blocks and another couple charges drawn also helped. 
  
• Charlie Villanueva.  It was vintage Villanueva, as CV went off for 15 in the second quarter and 24 by halftime, making circus shots and three of six from deep.  Naturally it didn't last, as Villanueva took just three shots in the second half and missed all of them, scoring his only two points on a pair of free throws with a minute left.  Still, when you get 26, 10 boards, and three blocks from your mercurial sixth man, you don't want to ask too many questions.  We know CV is going to be up and down, so at this point let's just take the good when we can get it. 
  
• Richard Jefferson.  Not a huge game from Jefferson--20 points on a very meh 7/17 fg, three rebounds, three dimes, and three steals.  Fortunately he saved his best for last, helping the Bucks off the mat by aggressively looking for his shot and scoring 10 points in the final seven minutes.  Before the year Alex noted that the Bucks were likely to benefit down the stretch from having a second player who could create his own shot and get to the line, and tonight that's exactly what Jefferson did down the stretch.
  

Three Numbers

• .512.  They did it!  For the first time since April the Bucks made over 50% of their field goals, a span of 25 games.
• 19. Even with leading scorer Danny Granger saddled with foul trouble most of the second half, the Pacers managed to claw back into the game and even take a lead on T.J. Ford's jumper with 4:41 left.  Fortunately, the Bucks somehow flipped the switch and scored the next 19 points, with Villanueva's feed for a Bogut dunk and foul offering the perfect exclamation point to an eventful night at the BC.
  
• 93.  The Bucks' top four scorers really brought it: Redd (27), Villanueva (26), Jefferson (20), and Bogut (20) simultaneously cracked 20 points for the first time this season. 

Three Good

• 20/20 vision.  There's been justifiable concern over Bogut's offensive malaise thus far, so we can only hope that tonight's effort might give the Bucks' anchor a bit of a boost.  Bogut simply doesn't have the arsenal right now to be a consistent 18-20 ppg guy, but it's amazing what being active around the hoop and making free throws can do for a big man's game.  This was Bogut's second career 20/20 game, as he also scored 20 along with 24 boards in Philly two years ago.
  
• Downright offensive.  The Pacers aren't known for their slow, defensive style, but it's still not every night that the Bucks put up 121 points.  In fact, there hadn't been any of those nights yet this year.  With Redd back in tow the Bucks don't have much of an excuse for being a well-below-average offensive team, so let's hope this is a hint of improvement rather than a one-game outlier. 
  
• Closing time.  While this was an absolutely crucial game for the Bucks to win, for some reason I wasn't all that nervous when Indiana fought back to take the lead midway through the fourth.  OK, so part of that is just getting used to disappointment as a Bucks fan; it's been a long couple years.  But as mediocre as they've been overall, the 08/09 Bucks have been fairly reliable, too--since dropping two of their first three to the Bulls (10-12) and Raptors (10-12), the Bucks have beaten every sub-.500 team aside from their road setback against the Warriors (eight games by count).  So obviously they were going to figure out a way to send the BC crowd home happy.  I mean, did you have any doubt?  Yeah, uh, me neither.

Three Bad

• Bogut's ups, Bogut's downs.  While it's true Bogut hasn't been getting as many shots this year, it has less to do with the guards and coaches (who have usually been the fall guys for Bogut's lack of involvement) and more with Bogut's struggles from the line and in holding on to the ball.  While he may make a tidy 54% of his shots, Bogut has shown no ability to harm opponents outside five feet--and that includes uncontested one-pointers from 15 feet.  Given Bogut's sub-50% ft shooting and struggles with double-teams, he's simply been too easy to guard. I doubt tonight's effort will magically change all that, but we know Bogut has more talent than he's shown offensively thus far in 08/09.
• Drama.  Seriously, can we just have a regular blowout where the scrubs can come in with six minutes remaining and the impatient people can leave 10 minutes early without fear of missing something?  We could use a few of those. 
  
• Give it away now.  For a free-scoring game, the Bucks still delivered plenty of frustrating moments, most of them involving careless turnovers.  Bogut, Redd and Villanueva accounted for 12 of the Bucks' 16 turnovers, and it seemed like the Bucks had a lot more than that.  But fortunately the Pacers did them one better in that department with 17 TOs.
  

Terrance Jerod is back in town. (via nytimes.com)

Pacers (7-15, 2-10 road) @ Bucks (9-15, 5-4 home)

Gametime: 7:30 p.m. central time

Injuries:

Pacers: Travis Diener (foot) has missed four straight games.

Bucks: Malik Allen (ribs) has missed two straight games. Charlie Bell (ankle) has missed six straight games.

07/08 Series:

Jan. 24: @Bucks 104 Pacers 92

March 2: @Pacers 128 Bucks 106

April 4: Pacers 105 @Bucks 101

08/09 Advanced Stats:

Pacers: Offense: 22nd (103.5 points/100 possessions) Defense:  15th (106.5)  Pace: 4th (95.2)

Bucks: Offense: 26th (102.7 points/100 possessions) Defense:  14th (106.4) Pace:  12th (92.2)

Three points:

• S.O.S. Not Morse code distress signals, but strength of schedule. Indiana has the most difficult strength of schedule (.575) in the NBA so far this season. The Bucks (.533) have played the fourth most difficult schedule, and a couple more road games than the Pacers. Indiana might be happy to play Milwaukee after their December sked thus far: Lakers, @Celtics, Cavaliers, Celtics, @Raptors, @Pistons. Then again, they might not be so happy to see the Bucks; the Pacers play far better against good teams than bad ones and far better at home than on the road. They have slayed the Celtics and Lakers at Conseco. Yet they are just 2-10 on the road, though Indy did top the Rockets in Houston.
• Central problem. Last season, the Bucks (6-10) and Pacers (5-11) struggled badly against division foes. So far this year, they are even worse; the Bucks are 1-4 and the Pacers are 0-5.
  
• GRANGERMAN. Mo Williams isn't the only former Buck starting at point guard in the Bucks' division. T.J. Ford joined the Pacers this offseason in a trade with Toronto for Jermaine O'Neal, and he's doing quite alright. But the brightest star in the Hoosier state is Danny Granger, the small forward who dropped 42/7/6 (and six turnovers) in a 114-110 loss to Detroit last night. Granger is just another excellent small forward in the East. Richard Jefferson and the Bucks have faced Gerald Wallace, Luol Deng, LeBron James, Tayshaun Prince, and Hedo Turkoglu -- all in the last two and a half weeks. And that list doesn't include Josh Smith, who was out when the Bucks played in Atlanta. Okay, so Granger isn't just another small forward in the East. I'll let Skeets take it from here.

  Ball Don't Lie: You're big into superheroes. I read that you actually want to build a hidden cave in your house like Batman.

  Danny Granger: Yeah ... (Laughs) I'm building a house in New Mexico and actually the builder called me and told me he found a nice little feature, a lift for my car, kind of like Batman had. It's in the works, it's a process. [The Superhero stuff] is just a big thing I've been a part of. I love Superman, love Batman. It's just the way I've been always.

Coverage:

Bucks.com / Indy Cornrows

Team USA take Australia down, under some pressure.

• The Bucks released its 2008-09 regular season schedule today. They open on October 28 on the road against the Bulls, coach Scott Skiles' former team. The second game of the season is listed as at Seattle, but let's hope the Bucks don't make that trip. That's the home opener for Oklahoma City. (Update: the schedule is now updated/correct) The Bucks' home opener is Saturday, November 1 against the Raptors, who notably dealt former Buck T.J. Ford for Jermaine O'Neal.
  
• Getting off to a fast start won't be easy: the Bucks play 10 of 17 in November on the road, and 13 of 17 November opponents made the playoffs last season. They play the Celtics twice, and have road contests against the Pistons, Jazz, Cavaliers, and Magic. The Spurs and Suns are a couple teams that will visit Milwaukee. However, the schedule softens some at the end, as they finish the year with 13 of 21 at the Bradley Center, so they'll need to remain in contention through February. 
  
• Fortunately, the Bucks travel to Boston only once with two more games in Milwaukee.  Other East teams the Bucks face only thrice: Philadelphia (one home), Miami (one home), and Washington (two home, sorry Gilbert).  Aside from those 12 games, the Bucks play four times against the remaining ten Eastern Conference teams (40 total), and twice against each of the Western teams (30 total).
• Charles Gardner offers Bucks' schedule observations. Here's just one: the Bucks have one nationally televised game: February 27 against the Hornets. 
• ESPN.com's Marc Stein unveils schedule highlights from around the league. Along with mentioning the Bucks will be the first team to visit Oklahoma City this season, the Bucks/Nets game on February 3 is highlighted as RJ's homecoming.
• Jim Paschke offers more insight into the schedule, too.

  Due to NBA team re-location and league realignment in recent years, 7 of the 15 teams in the Western Conference are currently in the Central Time Zone. The Bucks will play just 5 of 82 games in the Pacific Time Zone, which is an advantage for our television viewers.

• Team USA completed its pre-Olympic schedule a spotless 5-0 with an 87-76 (recap/quotes) win over Australia on Monday morning in Shanghai. Despite playing without top player Andrew Bogut, the Aussies hung tough and even outscored Team USA in the second half, ignited by St. Mary's point guard Patrick Mills, who netted 13 points in 21 minutes off the bench. Dwyane Wade continued his stellar play, leading Team USA with 22 points. The Americans shot an ice-cold 3-18 on three-pointers, with Michael Redd contributing an 0-3 effort from outside. Playing the percentages, it's only a good thing to get a bad shooting night out of the way in a tuneup game, but the narrow victory showed Team USA's fragility nonetheless. They begin their road to gold on Sunday at 9:15 a.m. against China on NBC.
• Kelly Dwyer looks Behind the box score at Team USA/Australia.

  This team (and I'm looking at you, Carmelo) just turns its head too much. These guys aren't used to watching for back-picks and defending cuts to the front of the hoop. Back-door screens still kill Team USA, and though the men still have the athleticism to recover and sometimes make up for it, Coach K's crew is still getting beat way too much by teams using Team USA's pressure against itself.

• Chris Sheridan also finds problems with Team USA.

  Remember last summer when Mexico scored 100 against Team USA in the Tournament of the Americas and the players shrugged it off as nothing? Well, it wasn't nothing. It was a sign that too often they are beaten for open looks, and they should have taken it as a warning sign.

• Randy Hill of FoxSports.com takes a closer look at Team USA's offense and defense.
• Charles Gardner reports Andrew Bogut expects to play in Australia's Olympic opener against Croatia on Sunday.
• The Bob Boozer Jinx adds that Bogut is available to play in Australia's opener against Croatia according to coach Brian Goorjian. J.D. Mo also wonders how Team USA would've fared with Bogut on the court.
• Dime reflects on USA/Australia.
• Dime also poses the question: who is the best player on Team USA? There is some debate in the comments about the difference between the most valuable player to the team as its comprised versus best player overall. Going forward, I vote LeBron James to hold both titles.
• NBA.com's John Schuhmann writes Michael Redd helps Team USA shoot for success off the bench.
• Check out NBA.com's photo gallery from a recent Team USA visit to Shanghai Children's Medical Center.
• Hardwood Paroxysm notes that one-time Buck and permanently 5'5" Earl Boykins signed with Virtus Bologna in Italy for $3.5 million, making him the highest-paid (basketball) player in the country.

Sleepy Joe: Alexander takes a snooze in the Cousins Center lobby. (Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

• Alex reports from Summerfest where Joe Alexander was in his element.
• Sportsbubbler delivers video from the Alexander press conference while Charles Gardner provides a recap.There's an allusion there to Alexander possibly wearing the same #8 jersey Marques Johnson wore, but it looks like the jersey they presented him was simply an "08" jersey printed up for whomever the Bucks picked in the 2008 draft. I'll guess Alexander ends up wearing #11, following in the miniature footsteps of T.J. Ford, whom the Bucks happened to pick eighth five years ago.  Chatting at ESPN before the draft, Joe warned it could get ugly if he doesn't get it:
  

  I chose 11 because it was a number I wore in middle school. I'm going to wear 11 if I can. If not, I have some serious thinking to do about whether I really want to play in this league.

  He's got a sense of humor, kids!  Needless to say, his first Braeger Chevrolet commercial should be awe-inspiring.
  
• Dave Heller at the JS has a survey of Bucks' draft grades. For the most part the spread in grades (C- to A) depend on how strongly the writers felt about drafting for quality vs. positional need. Aside from those, Jonathan Givony at DX also gives the Bucks an "A":
  

  With Jefferson in the fold, we definitely feel better about seeing Milwaukee take a chance on Joe Alexander with the 8th overall pick. He was always going to have problems stepping up from day one and justifying being drafted that high considering his lack of polish, but with Jefferson on board and minutes to be had off the bench at the 3 and especially the 4, Alexander can develop at a more reasonable pace, instead of being thrown straight into the fire.

• Ty at Bucks Diary is working overtime.  On a positive note, he breaks down the numbers and argues that Scott Skiles' defensive magic could pay immediate dividends:

  As I said above, all but one player improved his career defensive efficiency under Skiles, and the minimum improvement was 3 points per possession, with the average improvement being 5.5 points per possession. That means victories, especially in the Eastern Conference. If you project Skiles average improvement effect onto the Bucks roster from last season, and you assume that their putrid offense won't get any worse, then I estimate the "Skiles Effect" alone will add 11 wins to the Bucks record.

  It's a pretty startling stat, and there's no doubt that the 08/09 Bucks will provide a fascinating test of Skiles' incredible defensive record. In efficiency terms, Skiles' teams have typically been excellent defensively (2nd, 7th, and 1st from '04-'07 in Chicago) and below-average offensively (26th, 23rd and 21st over the same period) while playing at a fast pace.
  
  To me the question is 1) how much can Skiles really help the Bucks defensively and 2) can they still be a respectable team offensively. The Bucks were dead last in defensive efficiency last year, so there's no doubt some improvement will occur, but how much is reasonable?  The Bulls were 21st in 02/03, then 16th the following season when Skiles took over 16 games into the season.  So they were pretty bad and Skiles produced results rather quickly. I'd love to know the biggest improvement a team has made from year-to-year in that category.  For what it's worth, the world champion Celtics produced one of the best defensive performances of all time this year after ranking 16th last year. Maybe they could spare us Kevin Garnett?
  
  Secondly, the Bucks were below-average offensively last year, ranking 21st in efficiency, but I agree with Ty that as of now it's difficult to imagine the Bucks will be any worse than that. Normally you expect there to be a tradeoff of worse offense with improved defense, but it's possible the 07/08 Bucks were simply so poorly coached and unmotivated that those rules won't apply (well, we hope). Afterall, at the moment their worst starters offensively are Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, two guys capable of going for 20/10 on any given night (I'll ignore CV's offensive inefficiency for the moment). There's a solid chance Villanueva and/or Mo Williams aren't on the roster by opening night, but the addition of Jefferson alone gives the Bucks one of the most offensively potent teams in the East...at least on paper.
  
• On the flip side, Ty says Richard Jefferson's defense is in clear decline. That's somewhat understandable given he had ankle surgery two years ago, though he did play in all 82 games last season. Last year RJ's opponent PER was about the same as Desmond Mason's, but the key difference is that RJ's own production actually outpaced the guys he was guarding, which can't be said of Desmond. Both guys might suffer from having to guard the best opponent wing player more often than not, and the Nets were also better defensively when RJ wasn't on the court. Still, the Bucks were outproduced at every position in 07/08, so as long as Jefferson can be consistently better than the guy he's guarding--which wasn't true of Yi and Simmons--the trade could make a big difference.
  
• Speaking of which, how does Jefferson feel about moving to Milwaukee? Dave D'Alessandro writes he has yet to say anything about his new gig.

  Still no first-hand word from R. Jefferson on his life being turned upside down. We could tell you third-hand that he's pretty flummoxed by the whole thing, which we've heard from two of his closest friends. But he dutifully ran his camp yesterday and is at a charity golf tournament today, so we'll hold off on the rest until we hear from him personally. Which, knowing Richard, could be in October.

  D'Alessandro also mentions that the Nets could use a wing player and now have a logjam of bigs following the acquisition of both Yi and Brook Lopez. Which makes you wonder if the Bucks tried to include Desmond Mason's expiring deal and one of the Nets' young big men (Josh Boone, Sean Williams) in order to balance the trade out positionally. Of course, at the time the deal was made the Bucks hadn't actually drafted Alexander/Mbah a Moute and the the Nets didn't yet have Lopez.  So perhaps Rod Thorn and Hammond will be talking again soon.
• Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes that draft day said a great deal about the direction the Bucks are headed in.
• Jim Paschke might not have a reason to learn Chinese any more, but that doesn't mean he's not excited about the draft day wheeling and dealing.
• The Salt Lake Tribune writes that Andrew Bogut could miss Beijing entirely if he doesn't sign a new contract extension with the Bucks. Bogut has been saying that he won't play until his extension is finalized, but something tells me he might revise that stance if negotiations stall. Afterall, he's still under contract for 08/09.  From a Bucks standpoint it would be nice to lock up Bogut before he has a breakout fourth season, but you can bet agent David Bauman won't be looking to give the Bucks a bargain. The earliest Bogut can officially sign an extension is July 9 when the free agent/trade moratorium ends.