• We break down the Andrew Bogut extension.
  
• If you're curious about what sort of contract incentives might be in Bogut's deal and how they're handled for cap purposes, check out the source for all CBA-related questions.  I wouldn't mind seeing Bogut's incentives tied exclusively to team wins, rebounds and free throw percentage.  If those things work out, everything else should fall into place quite nicely.
  
• The Bucks didn't waste time signing their picks, inking Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to a two-year deal, only one day after signing Joe Alexander.  Last year the Bucks waited until September 11 to sign Ramon Sessions, but that was in part because the Bucks had cap space to work with and unsigned second-rounders don't count against the cap.  The Bucks have no cap space this summer, so they don't have that same incentive (I probably should have realized that earlier).  Still, Mbah a Moute is just the fourth second rounder to sign, following Chris Douglas-Roberts (Nets), Patrick Ewing, Jr. (Kings), and Sean Singletary (Kings).
  
• Speaking of Luc, Truman Reed at Bucks.com put his terrific investigative skills to work with an insightful profile of the Bucks' new Cameroonian prince.  As with all of Reed's pieces, there's plenty of insight straight from the subject, and it's great to find a young player focused on things bigger than basketball:
  

  "Hopefully with the position I'm in with the Bucks, I can work hard and have enough success so I can help my government and my people overcome those hurdles and any others they encounter," he said. "I know I'm not the only one; there are lots of other people doing that, too.
  
  "The biggest thing is to reach out and help, and I'm willing to work in order to do that. It's hard for some of the countries in Africa. They're younger countries -- my country just won its independence in 1960. It's hard for young countries to keep up with others, such as those in Europe and America, which have been around for hundreds of years. Things have changed a lot already, though, and I'm hoping I can work hard and have enough success that I'll be able to continue to help bring about change there."

• Lots of talk over at RealGM about former Hornets big man/Birdman Chris Andersen possibly joining the Bucks. Andersen hasn't really played much the past two years after a length drug suspension, but he seems like he's turned his life around.  On the court, he's an athletic big man who can rebound and block shots, similar to Dan Gadzuric without the big pricetag.  A long-term answer at PF?  Nope.  A decent guy to add to the frontcourt rotation? Sure. Stay tuned.
• Nets Daily has Yi/Simmons coverage.

Here's the third part of our interview with Bucks GM John Hammond. Check out Part I and Part II here.  Thanks again to John for so generously providing his time last Friday.

Viewed individually, it was easy to like the three players John Hammond acquired on draft day. Richard Jefferson provided the Bucks an athletic, high-scoring forward. Joe Alexander brought athleticism and upside in spades, as well as the attitude and coachability to reach that potential.  And in the second round, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute gave the Bucks another athletic forward who prided his game on defense--a novel concept for pro basketball in Wisconsin.

Taken together however, the acquisition of three small forwards in one day begs the question of whether the Bucks would have been better off giving more weight to positional need, especially given the power forward shortage created by Yi's departure.  Not surprisingly, Hammond is unapologetic over acquiring the guys he felt were the best players available and sees his forwards' flexibility as key attributes going forward.

"Our goal is to have the best players you can possibly have.  Someone told me years ago that you are what you guard, and I think Richard Jefferson can guard multiple positions.  I think Joe can and I think Luc can.  So I think those guys are all multiple position players."

Continue reading this post »

John Hammond appears to have made the first big statement of his tenure as Bucks GM, agreeing in principle to trade Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons for Nets small forward Richard Jefferson. Both ESPN and SI are reporting this deal as being close to done. No draft picks are apparently involved.

Initial reaction: wow. We won't really be able to draw any final conclusions on this until we figure out if Yi can be a legitimate NBA big (still a major question mark), but for the time being it's clear the Bucks are shifting into win-now mode while the Nets are making a play for 2010 cap space. While Simmons is owed $9.92 and $10.56 million over the next two years, the 28-year old Jefferson will earn $13.2 and $14.2 million and has an early-termination option for $15.2 million in 2010/2011--don't expect him to opt out at those dollars.  Still, this doesn't change the Bucks' potential luxury tax issues all that much in 2009/2010. 

Jefferson bounced back from ankle problems in 2006/2007 to post 22.7 ppg in 82 games last year, and he's clearly a defensive upgrade for the woeful Bucks. So it's really all about time horizon--if you want the sure thing, then the Bucks clearly win this deal.  If you want a younger prospect with upside, then you'd prefer to have Yi, though opinions of him will vary a great deal.  The Nets seem content to rebuild (albeit with Vince Carter around) and then make a run at LeBron in the summer of 2010, and so they've been understandably shopping Jefferson. In the meantime, Yi should be a great marketing fit for the Nets and he'll certainly be thrilled to be near NYC (and a real Chinatown, too).

Andy Katz reports the Bucks still like Joe Alexander with their 8th pick, but the move does raise more questions about the Bucks' interest in Alexander and Anthony Randolph, both of whom John Hammond has referred to as small forwards.  Alexander could play a bit at PF right away because of his strength and athleticism, but would probably be a bit undersized, while Randolph has the length to be a PF but is far too light (197 lbs) to play there in the next year .  Chad Ford suggests the Bucks could also look to go guard, depending on the availability of Jerryd Bayless and Russell Westbrook.

Another obvious conclusion is that the Bucks might believe they can get UCLA big man Kevin Love with their 8th overall pick to replace Yi, a possibility that will largely hinge on Memphis' decision at number five.  Many expect them to trade the pick.  However, if the Yi trade was dependent on the Bucks acquiring Love, then you would expected the Bucks to wait until they actually have Love on the board to pull the trigger.  I'd say Alexander might be the guy in theory, but I'd have to go with Love if he was on the board. Alternatively, perhaps the Bucks will continue to shop their pick as well--we just know they won't be looking to acquire a veteran small forward.

• It seems like ever since Yi Jianlian was drafted, the good people at ESPN have been talking about getting him out of Milwaukee. Fortunately the latest rumor from Chad Ford is not that Yi wants out but that the Warriors are still very interested in the guy they were hoping to get last year when they traded Jason Richardson to the Bobcats for the eighth pick.

  While Wright played well for the Warriors toward the end of the season, they still covet Yi, according to sources. If the Warriors were to offer Wright and the No. 14 pick for Yi, that might be too much for the Bucks to pass on. The team is in rebuilding mode and might be ready to accept a two-for-one deal.

  Wright rarely got off the bench last year, but to his credit put up a rather exceptional 17.29 PER in just 376 minutes (in contrast, Yi was at just 11.28). He was mostly a garbage time guy, playing in just 15 games that were decided by 10 or fewer points. More importantly, at 6'10" and only a shade over 200 pounds, it's unclear if he'll ever have the body to be an effective PF.  I prefer Yi to Wright, but even so Wright AND the 14th pick is a lot of value considering how little Yi's accomplished so far.
  
  Of course, there's probably a reason why Golden State would be eager to package Wright with another lottery pick in spite of Yi's tumultuous first season. That reason might be Don Nelson, who was reportedly very high on Yi last year and barely let Wright get off the bench--perhaps to the chagrin of GM Chris Mullin. Personally I'd like to see Yi get at least another season in Milwaukee, though if Kevin Love slipped to the Bucks at eight I'd be willing to reconsider.  Check out GSoM for discussion from the Warrior viewpoint.
  
• Speaking of the Warriors, Wright and Love, the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami blogs that Mullin might be willing to give up Wright for a chance at the UCLA big man.

  I’d trade Wright–painful as that might be for Mullin–to get a shot at Love. I would. I’d want something more back than just the 8th pick from Milwaukee to do it, but I’d do something like that.
  
  I’m told the Warriors will not be trading Wright, period, this summer, but Mullin also said on the record twice last year that he wouldn’t be trading Jason Richardson… then he traded Jason Richardson for Wright.

  I'm not sure why the Bucks would prefer Wright to Love in the first place to be honest. Kawakami also notes that John Hammond could be more interested in Golden State's $9.9 million trade exception, which could be used to ship out a bad contract (he says Bobby Simmons, I prefer Dan Gadzuric) as part of a swap of the 8th and 14th picks.
• ESPN analyst (and UW grad) Andy Katz profiles West Virginia forward Joe Alexander, who isn't about to speak ill of a potential lottery suitor:

  "I really like Milwaukee, and I think I'd be a good fit for them," said Alexander, who said West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told him to find a spot that fits so that he can get the playing time to be productive. "When I look at the way I played at the end of the season, I look at that as my game now. It wasn't just a fluke. I know what I can do. I can play with anybody at any time and have enough skills to go with anyone. I think I can make an immediate impact."

  I'm not sure Alexander would be a good value at eight, but you gotta love his insane athleticism and killer work ethic. Katz's article suggests he had a workout with the Bucks on Wednesday, but Alexander was actually in New York that day. According to Gery Woelfel, he will be in Milwaukee on Sunday to work out along with Syracuse's Donte Greene.
• According to HoopsHype, Xavier guard Stanley Burrell (no, not that Stanley Burrell) will be working out in Milwaukee tomorrow. A 6'3" combo guard, Burrell earned Atlantic Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors and was named to multiple national all-defensive teams as a senior last year. Of course, he doesn't have much to offer on the offensive end (9.7 ppg and 3.8 apg on .391/.393/.823 shooting), which is why he's getting next to no attention. Strangely, he averaged over 12 ppg in each of his first three years before slumping to single digits last year on a very good Xavier team. In Orlando he showed great size (6'6.5" wingspan) and strength (21 reps of 185 lbs) for the PG position, but whether he can run an offense with a vague degree of competence seems to be another question.

  The first thing you notice about him is his chiseled frame—clearly indicating the amount of time he’s spent in the weight room. Beyond his strength, he looks very fundamentally sound, mature, and is also a very good shooter. Defensively, he is off the charts as you would expect considering his status as Atlantic-10 Defensive Player of the Year. He might have been the hardest working player here in the various drills, and seemed very genuine in the way he cheered his teammates on. He’s a confident guy, and also very well spoken. As a very undersized shooting guard, without incredible ball-skills or athleticism to compensate, it’s probably going to be tough for him to make the NBA. But it’s not tough to envision him finding a lot of success overseas, and continuing to improve over the next few years thanks to his work ethic.

  Sounds very Charlie Bell-ish to me.
• The Bratwurst writes Wright/14th pick for Yi probably makes the Bucks better next year, but the long term is more complicated. Also check out Brett's defensive IPM rankings, which are pretty cool. Between that and Ty's defensive win score stats, Bucks fans have no shortage of number crunching being done for their fave team.  It also means I feel no obligation to do this sort of thing myself (thanks, guys).
• I didn't hear it myself, but apparently Gery Woelfel mentioned on WSSP that a team ahead of the Bucks in the lottery could be interested in packaging their lottery pick for Michael Redd. Memphis should have zero interest in a veteran, high-priced guy like Redd, while New York would seem an unlikely destination given they're supposedly trying to clear cap space for the summer of 2010 when LeBron, Wade and company are free agents. The Clips make a lot more sense given they are in desperate need of a shooter and are possibly losing Corey Maggette this summer. In the longer term it's probably easier to just pick Indiana Eric Gordon and save their money for someone else, but with Brand and Kaman in their prime the Clips could throw caution to the wind and gamble on a more proven commodity like Redd. Not likely, but possible--and it's the best chance we've got of bringing Bradley Center favorite Tim Thomas back to Milwaukee.  Awkward!
  
• While it might seem like Milwaukee's history with Chinese basketball began at the 2007 draft, Don Walker reports that the Beijing Ducks discovered Milwaukee way back in 2005--well before anyone Wisconsinite knew the name Yi Jianlian. They're now back in Milwaukee for a month of training with US coaches.

Ilyasova's defense has been a bright spot in Spain.

When Bucks' forward Ersan Ilyasova signed with Barcelona last summer, it would have been easy to close the book on him as simply another second round pick that washed out.  Which might not seem like a big deal until you consider that in 2005, Larry Harris and Dave Babcock chose the Turkish teenager over now-familiar names like Monta Ellis, Ryan Gomes, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche and Amir Johnson. Fortunately, Ilyasova's relative youth (he just turned 21...we think) and the progress he appears to be making in Spain suggest that he could yet become a productive player in the NBA--whether it's in Milwaukee or elsewhere. 

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Scott Allen Skiles pretty consistently succeeded as a head coach in the NBA, something you wouldn't necessarily believe given he was sent out of town from his only two head coaching gigs within four years. But the numbers speak for themselves: in Phoenix, he was over .600 two of three years, and the Bulls added 28 wins in his second season coaching.

This is really worth being optimistic about. Truly.

As long as we understand that it's still, in the end, almost all about the players on the floor. Thankfully, that's where John Hammond should come in handy, because we all know by now that Skiles could channel the coaching knowledge of Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, and John Wooden and still miss 45 wins with current player personnel.

This leads us into a discussion about Skiles and the small forwards he's coached.

Continue reading this post »

• You can probably count on one hand the number of people who watch as much basketball as Yahoo's Kelly Dwyer, so when KD speaks, we listen. This week he's chiming in with an excellent column on the Skiles hiring, a topic KD is particularly worth listening to since he's a Bulls fan.

  The newest Milwaukee coach might not do wonders in his first year, but he will improve the team. And in his second year, even with the same rotation (immovable contracts being what they are) that won just 26 games for Skiles’ good friend Larry Krystkowiak, a playoff appearance is likely. Skiles is that good.

  And, with time and growth and eventual lottery picks and the guiding hand of a new GM (well-regarded NBA lifer John Hammond) who isn’t married to anyone on Milwaukee’s roster, the Bucks will eventually double up that 26-win mark during Skiles’ term. In fact, move the expected plan up a year and nobody would be surprised that he could have this team in the playoffs next year. Again, he’s that good....

  This is not a coach who will see a lavish retirement ceremony some 10 years down the line. Skiles will burn through Milwaukee in four or five years as he did in Phoenix and Chicago before eventually flaming out and moving on. It’s a trademark of certain coaches (Hubie Brown and Doug Collins come to mind) that never seems to go away even as age and a supposedly increased sense of tact takes hold.

  It’s a pity, but even a graying leopard can’t change his spots. This doesn’t mean Skiles won’t be successful. He’ll be quite successful because formidable talent and a strong work ethic usually lead people to greatness. Skiles boasts both those qualities. Just beware of the flipside, and the inevitable fallout likely coming in 2012 or so.

• Gery Woelfel cautions that Skiles will need to learn from his often tumultuous stints in Chicago and Phoenix.

  At Monday’s press conference at the Bradley Center, Skiles said he was a better coach in Chicago than he was in Phoenix and that he expected to be a better coach in Milwaukee than he was in Chicago. If that is to happen, Skiles will have to tone down his act. He’s going to have to show more restraint. He’s going to have to embrace his players rather than distance himself from them. And, if he doesn’t, the inevitable will likely take place for him — just like it did in Phoenix and Chicago.

• Plenty of good notes in Woelfel's column: the Bucks might have focused on Skiles after being unable to coax a quick decision out of Rick Carlisle, and Hammond will likely add a director of scouting and cap expert soon (good). However, the most intriguing gossip is that Woelfel describes an unnamed player who recently cringed at the thought of Skiles being brought in. The Bratwurst wisely deduces it has to be either Bobby Simmons or Charlie Villanueva, though the word from reliable sources at RealGM is that Simmons has already spoken to Skiles and is working hard to be in better shape for camp. Villanueva's maddening inconsistency and defensive meekness would likely drive Skiles nuts, so given that Villanueva has probably heard plenty about Skiles from his high school teammate Luol Deng and college teammate Ben Gordon, he's the most likely mystery man.
• Jim Paschke offers a terrific story of Scott Skiles' first day at Bucks' training camp in 1986, which happened to be Jim's first season calling Bucks' games. Jim recalls having lunch with the rookie and veteran Jack Sikma, who had been acquired that summer:

  I don’t remember what we talked about, but I do remember listening and watching the veteran indoctrinate and make Skiles as comfortable as possible. Jack used humor to open the door. Scott laughed easily and without pretense. I remember being impressed that a former NBA champion would reach out the way Sikma did that day, and also the ease with which Skiles fit into his new life. I was convinced that both guys were perfectly suited to their line of work. I also think that while both men have grown, neither has changed appreciably in the years since. The substance I saw in both on that October day long ago is still very visible.

• Bucks Diary crunches the numbers and says don't be surprised if Skiles produces a winner in year one. I normally love stats, but I can't help but be skeptical about a Bucks team defending--after all, I was only ten years old the last time the Bucks were an above-average defensive team.

  If Skiles does it again in Milwaukee next season, one can estimate the result will be about 62.1 defensive half wins. If that is the case, then even if the offense produces the same anemic 26.2 half wins it did this season, the Bucks are still a 44-38 team in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Is this all fanciful theorizing? Can Skiles really come to this barren defensive wasteland and conjure such a dramatic transformation? Given his compelling track record, I believe he can. In fact, the evidence clearly suggests HE WILL... and by no later than year two.

• With all the talk about Skiles not lasting more than four years, The Bob Boozer Jinx notes that would be pretty good considering what we've seen lately.