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Monday Notes: Lottery approaches, Bogut talks, more workouts

  • The Bucks' odds of moving up in tonight's draft lottery (7:30 ct, ESPN) are slim, but fortunately hope is free of charge.  Besides, the lottery is the first real event to happen since the season ended a month ago, so it's better than nothing, right?

    To recap, the Bucks have just 10 combinations out of a possible 1000, so the odds of winning the right to draft Blake Griffin are just 1.0%.  Overall the Bucks have a 3.6% chance of jumping into one of the top three spots, an 87% chance of staying put at #10, an 8% chance of dropping to #11 and virtually no chance of dropping to #12 or #13.  John Hammond will be joined by assistant GM Jeff Weltman in representing the Bucks at the NBA's studio in lovely Secaucus, NJ. 
  • With his back healed, Andrew Bogut spoke to about his summer plans.
  • Gery Woelfel has info on which possible second round targets the Bucks are bringing in for workouts this week.  Plenty of local favorites to choose from.
  • Chad Ford watched DeJuan Blair, Jrue Holiday, and Earl Clark work out this week.  Given all three guys should be on the Bucks radar, it's definitely worth a look.  We discussed the intrigue of Blair a couple weeks back, and not surprisingly he seems to have shed some of the baby fat he carried at Pittsburgh.  Funny what guys will do when million of dollars are stake, eh?
    Last week, when I listed the prospects I'd see on my pre-draft workout tour, I got a number of calls from NBA executives with the same request: "Let us know how Blair looks." NBA GMs want to love this guy. They need players like him. But they're scared off by the physical limitations he has.

    I'm happy to report that the news is good. Blair looks closer to 6-6 than 6-8, but he has a huge 7-foot, 2-inch wingspan that makes up for his lack of height.

    As far as his weight goes, Blair looks considerably better than he looked at Pittsburgh. He has lost about 15 pounds during the first two weeks of training. His physique is much more chiseled. And most importantly, his athleticism has improved greatly because he has lost that weight and improved his conditioning.

    So how does that relate to the Bucks? Well, Ford mentions both Blair and Holiday as potential targets:
    Several teams in the lottery have shown much interest. Toronto is desperate for a beast to match with Chris Bosh or Andrea Bargnani. The Bucks are in desperate need of a physical low-post presence to pair alongside Andrew Bogut. (Plus, Blair really seems like a Scott Skiles type of player.) The Nets are looking for the same thing to put next to Brook Lopez. The Pacers didn't have any real paint presence last season.
    I don't follow college basketball closely enough during the regular season to feel passionately about any of these guys, but the Bucks' lack of toughness at PF has made Blair one of the guys I'll be watching most closely over the next month.  The trap is obviously if you draft a guy for need when clearly better players are available at other positions--as we saw last year, the Bucks simply don't have enough talent to be passing on potential stars at any position.