Mock drafts fascinate me. I think they provoke a certain amount of interest from every NBA fan. None of us expect mock drafts to give us a perfect look into the future, but I think they are a source of interest because on some level they claim, either implicitly or explicitly, to have at least a piece of the information we all want. Who do NBA GMs like? In what range are players expected to be drafted? Who is getting hyped? Who is getting snubbed? We all have our hunches and theories about which players will succeed and fail at the NBA level, and a mock draft provides a comfortable and practical framework for draft discussion by linking the players with actual teams. With that in mind, I decided it would be fun to take it a step further and study how well the guys who do mock drafts can predict the actual results.
The draft is over (it has only been a week, but in internet time, it already feels like an eternity), and every team in the NBA, including the Bucks, is preparing to sell their fans on the idea they have improved their roster and are primed for a successful season...that is, of course, if we have a season. Before all conversation is dominated by the CBA and everyone gets depressed, let's take some time to have one last laugh. Hit the jump to see how well different mock drafters performed in predicting the 2011 NBA Draft lottery picks.
Before I get to the breakdown, there are a few things to mention: (1) some mock drafters made last second changes to reflect the three-team trade between the Bucks, Kings, and Bobcats, while others did not. As far as I am concerned they all had an equal opportunity to make changes right up until the draft, so final mocks will be treated equally, (2) I understand that getting one or two picks wrong could create a string of incorrect picks, but this is why I limited results to the draft lottery in the first place. I presume they pick a certain player at a certain spot with the idea of being correct, so it should be fair game to hold their predictions up to the light.