We're T-minus 48 hours until the trade deadline arrives and so far--predictably--it's all talk and no action. Expect that to change by Thursday afternoon, though it's not yet clear how big or small a role the Bucks will play in all that deadline deal action. To date there's been plenty of talk about the Bucks moving spare parts, though Chad Ford seems to be hedging his bets about the Bucks' plans in his latest column at ESPN.
It sounds like it's going to be a pretty quiet trade deadline for the Bucks. The most likely players to go are Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour, but neither will have an impact on the team's night-to-night performance and the Bucks would not likely get a great asset for either. Caron Butler has generated significant interest from other teams, but the Bucks are reluctant to let go of the local product. If they make a bigger move, Ersan Ilyasova will likely be the guy to move, though I'm told that right now there isn't anything major cooking for him.
So what do we think? Read on below for our best guesses, and be sure to tell us in the comments what you think.
Frank Madden:
Odds the Bucks do a deal by Thursday?
85%. I'm guessing we don't see any big moves, but it's tough to see the Bucks standing pat when they have so many pieces that a) want out of Milwaukee and b) don't matter to the team's long-term future. Neal, Ilyasova, Udoh, Butler and Ridnour could all be useful to teams looking for depth to make playoff pushes, and only Ilyasova might have any use after the summer in Milwaukee.
Over/under on number of deals the Bucks make? 1.5. I'd guess one deal is certain--most likely something involving Neal--but that could be either a stand-alone or involving another player or two.
List the Bucks most likely to be dealt, starting with the most likely (limit 5):
Gary Neal, Luke Ridnour, Caron Butler, Ekpe Udoh, Ersan Ilyasova.
Neal seems like the easiest call because a number of potentially interested teams (namely Golden State and Oklahoma City) have trade exceptions that they could use to absorb his modest salary ($3.25 million) outright. Ilyasova is the toughest player to gauge in terms of value, but he's the only guy who might be a major-minute difference-maker elsewhere. Ridnour might be less likely to move if Neal departs, simply because Luke's deal is expiring and the Bucks will need somebody as a third point guard for the rest of this season.
Then there's Udoh, who no one seems to talk about despite the fact that he's a serviceable, mobile big man with an expiring deal. For all of Udoh's box score shortcomings, you'd think someone with a need for frontcourt depth would want him, right?
I'll list Ilyasova last simply because he's the most difficult to value, but he's also arguably the only guy that might fetch something interesting in return.
Predict the deal most likely to happen:
Gary Neal to Golden State (absorbing via trade exception) seems doable, assuming it doesn't put the Warriors in luxury tax peril.
The Bucks will presumably be poking around to see if they can pull off a bigger deal that allows them to dump Neal along with another move that delivers something resembling an asset, but in a worst case scenario you'd think they could at least get rid of Neal and his guaranteed salary next season without taking back 14/15 salary. That appears to have been the motivation behind talks the Bucks reportedly had with Charlotte:
Charlotte had traction on deal to bring it Milwaukee's Caron Butler and Gary Neal, but talks crumbled in recent days, league sources tell Y!
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) February 18, 2014
Ben Gordon's expiring $13 million salary is the only obvious way that sort of deal could have worked with Charlotte, so we might speculate that the deal broke down over draft picks. The Bucks have a slew of second rounders this year while Charlotte will have Portland's first (projected 27th) in addition to a top-nine protected pick from Detroit (currently 10th), so there are plenty of ways to potentially bridge valuation gaps.
If the Bucks did get something back from Golden State in a hypothetical Neal deal, combo guard Nemaja Nedovic is a guy they worked out ahead of the draft who has struggled as a rookie but might still be intriguing to take a flier on.
Dan Sinclair:
Odds the Bucks do a deal by Thursday?
90%. I think Gary Neal is almost certain to be traded, and it wouldn't at all surprise me to see another vet or two go as well. What's really interesting, though, is the prospect of the Bucks going after a talent upgrade because so many teams are trying to sell even their productive players. I don't think such a deal is likely, since the Bucks' most valuable trade assets are also the most important elements of their future plans, but the weird way the market is leaning right now makes conditions ripe for some strange happenings.
Over/under on number of deals the Bucks make?
I'd set it at 2.5 with the under being favored. Aside from my predicted Neal trade, I think the Bucks could try to ship out other vets, though it's also possible that multiple guys will get swapped for one large expiring contract (a la the rumored Caron Butler/Neal-to-Charlotte deal, which was presumably centered around Ben Gordon's expiring deal).
List the Bucks most likely to be dealt, starting with the most likely (limit 5):
Gary Neal, Luke Ridnour, Ekpe Udoh, Ersan Ilyasova, Zaza Pachulia.
In my mind there's a big drop-off in likelihood from Ridnour to Udoh, and then from Udoh to Butler. But I could also be overrating the Bucks' attachment to Butler's "veteran presence" and underrating his value to other teams. Ilyasova is a tough guy to peg, but I don't think another team will offer the kind of value the Bucks are comfortable taking. I also think there's some confidence in the organization that he'll improve his stock in the second half.
Predict the deal most likely to happen:
Gary Neal gets absorbed into a trade exception for a contender with little-to-nothing coming back to Milwaukee. Golden State, Memphis, and Oklahoma City are all possibilities.
Eric Buenning:
Odds the Bucks do a deal by Thursday?
100% It could be a very small move that leaves you feeling pretty unfulfilled, but I can't imagine the deadline passing without someone switching uniforms.
Over/under on number of deals the Bucks make?
2. I think at least one will happen, and two is pretty likely. Three seems like too many for one team to pull off at the deadline. Also keep in mind that three or four players could be sent out in those two deals. So yeah, I think two is a safe number to set the line at here.
List the Bucks most likely to be dealt, starting with the most likely (limit 5):
Neal, Ridnour, Ilyasova, Udoh, Butler.
Ugh, that list looks disgusting. WHY DID THE BUCKS SIGN/ACQUIRE/GET STUCK WITH THOSE GUYS (save for Ilyasova)?!?
I think that the first three on that list are the most likely to be on different rosters by Thursday. The other two guys would make sense, but I can't imagine teams really blowing up John Hammond's phone asking about them. I would like to see their names (and O.J. Mayo) pop up in discussions though, as that would reiterate--to me, at least--that they are serious about a youth-led rebuild.
Predict the deal most likely to happen:
Gary Neal to a contender with a need for a heat check bench guy (Thunder, Pacers, Suns...Clippers?) for something relatively insignificant (future second round pick?).
Honorable pipe-dreamy mention: Neal, packaged with Ersan to a contender (say, Phoenix) for a big expiring deal and a late first-round pick (fingers crossed!) or a stuck-on-the-bench young player (read: Archie Goodwin). Maybe wishful thinking, but there's no compelling reason for the Bucks to outright give Ilyasova away either.