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First off, thank you all for your contributions to the first post; there was a lot of great discussion, a decent spread of votes for different positions or skill-sets, and (somehow) an Alexey Shved .gif. I appreciate how active this site gets, even weeks after the Bucks were drummed out of the first round of the playoffs.
Speaking of playoffs, let's recap the whole point of this exercise:
The Bucks are a good team...but they're not that good. Not yet. To take it to the next level, the franchise must both continue to develop players on the roster and bring in new faces that help take the team over the edge. With the rebuild still ongoing, it's hard to figure what the team will do next.To try to explore what the future may hold, we ought to figure out what we actually want. That's where you come in. What kind of player do you think will help push the Bucks to the next level? What weakness on the roster do you want shored up? Is there a guy out there who might be the perfect piece to add to our puzzle?
The votes are in, and here are the top-5 of what y'all want this summer:
- A center who can rebound
- A wing who can make threes
- A big man who can hit midrange jumpers
- A guard who can make threes
- A big man who can defend the rim
Not exactly a shocking list, in my opinion. The whole world knows the team needs more shooting, and most Bucks fans know that serious questions surround the center position. Thankfully, Bucks GM John Hammond seems to recognize these realities (emphasis mine):
"We're still a very young team, and we're still very much an unfinished product, so I would look and say probably we like a lot of other teams we need a lot of things. We still need size, we need shooting, we need to continue to add toughness and energy to our team. So we have multiple needs."
Zaza Pachulia performed admirably in his role, and John Henson had some more flashes of brilliance, but both of them have holes in their game that require closer examination, while Miles Plumlee appears best suited as an energy guy off the bench. More importantly, these traits are all complementary to the team's core (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Khris Middleton, assuming he re-signs). This reinforces the notion that Milwaukee is building the team starting from the middle of the rotation, thus embracing the team's current cadre of versatile forwards in a blitzing, switch-heavy defensive system.
I was a bit surprised to not see point guard as high on the list after the votes were tallied. We've had a number of discussions about Michael Carter-Williams and his placement on this team, and there's no small number of detractors who would prefer a point guard with a more conventional (and effective) offensive game. That being said, not as many of us are clamoring for a new project at PG, so for the time being we're willing (or resigned) to see what happens with MCW.
(Since the two biggest themes in the comments were for big men and outside shooters, I'll be breaking up the results portion accordingly. We'll talk about big men now, and I'll put together a follow-up post for available shooters in Part 3.)
* * *
Let's determine why rebounding is such a big issue when it comes to Milwaukee's bigs. Getting the obvious out of the way: the team struggled on the boards last year (49.5% overall, 19th in the NBA). This deficiency was particularly evident on defense, where Milwaukee tied for 24th (with Toronto) in Defensive Rebound Rate at 73.3%, and allowed over 11 offensive boards per game (11.4, 22nd overall). The Bucks themselves were middling on the offensive boards (Offensive Rebound Rate of 25.4, 14th overall) as well, though that's likely also somewhat strategic -- if they made a more concerted effort to crash the offensive glass, they probably wouldn't have allowed the fewest transition points in the league. The good news is that the team improved greatly after the trade deadline, ranking 14th in defensive rebound rate and sixth in offensive rebound rate after the arrival of MCW. Overall, only four players on the team averaged more than 5 total rebounds per game: Zaza (6.8/gm), Giannis (6.7/gm), Larry Sanders (6.1/gm), and Jabari Parker (5.5/gm).
Being a bad rebounding team is one thing, but we saw in the playoffs how a bigger opponent can simply bully the Bucks on the glass to create multiple possessions on one offensive trip. Chicago, Cleveland, Indiana, and Detroit are teams with playoff aspirations that the Bucks will be playing multiple times a year, and each of them gobble up defensive rebounds like Pac-Man. By controlling the glass, teams control the pace, and Milwaukee needs as many possessions (re: boards) for the offense to work. Without a steady offense to cancel out the disadvantage of losing defensive boards, Milwaukee simply can't win games if they can't control the glass.
The backcourt actually holds its own when it comes to rebounding. MCW, Middleton, and O.J. Mayo are plus-rebounders at PG and SG, and the system allows for them to grab the ball off a miss and immediately take it up court. So let's talk about the frontcourt. Giannis, Jabari, Jared Dudley, and Ersan Ilyasova make up the majority of the (current) forward rotation, with Middleton sometimes filling in, Damien Inglis set to eventually return, and Johnny O'Bryant as an end-of-the-bench project. A versatile group, as most of these guys are at least average rebounders relative to their role and size, with Giannis as the best of the bunch. However, the Bucks' small lineups often leave them undersized at the four, and the centers are decidedly below average...which can create difficulty when the defense is trying to snuff out the second (or third) chance for an opponent's possession.
As a whole, center isn't a terribly impactful position in Jason Kidd's system. It's often the case that "good enough" is good enough, and Zaza and Henson were good enough pretty regularly. After all, Kidd values guards who can rebound and self-start the fast break, so it's not as important for the center to board and outlet to the PG. But the system doesn't change the fact that all three centers are poor rebounders, and in many ways it exacerbates their shortcomings; Zaza can't jump, Henson can't (or won't?) box out, and Plumlee struggles to position himself correctly. Because the other four Bucks defenders are either zipping around the perimeter or flat-out undersized (Giannis and MCW excluded), it falls to the center to try and gather some boards to jump-start an offensive possession. That might not be "fair," but none of Zaza (DReb%: 19.9), Henson (DReb%: 17.3), or Plumlee (DReb%: 19.4) are well-suited for the challenge.
* * *
Another wrinkle in our quest to fortify the center rotation is the fact that the guys currently in that rotation do very different things very well. Zaza can make the midrange jumper, whereas Henson is a talented roll-man and close-range finisher. Zaza can pass really well, where Henson cannot...just like Henson can actually protect the rim and cover space on the perimeter, where Zaza cannot (though he uses his strength and hoops IQ to good effect). Plumlee, the prospect that he is, looks to be more like Henson overall...just worse right now.
So we already know when you put in one guy for the other, you're gonna get different things. So if you're going to add another player into the mix, or consider replacing a current face with a new one, do you go for overlapping skill sets? Do you duplicate them to make your scheme more flexible with lineup changes? Do you look for something new? Does it even matter? As with anything, it's a matter of degree. There's a ton of candidates out there, both as free agents and draft-eligible players, and we have the time and opportunity to look through all of them.
I've compiled a list of all the players in the NBA who a) play a significant portion of their minutes at center or could play center in Jason Kidd's system, b) are available in free agency (restricted, unrestricted, early termination options, and player/team options all included), and c) have something they can realistically offer the Bucks. I also pulled the stats for how each individual performed in a few categories, and compared them to their Milwaukee contemporaries. Those stats are:
- Total REB per 36 minutes
- Defensive REB Rate
- Total AST per 36 minutes
- Assist Ratio
- Total BLK per 36 minutes
- FG% (10'-16')
So, based on what y'all put on the wish list and what I found, here are some of our options this summer. Some are good fits, some are not, but everything has something they can bring to the table.
|
Name |
Age |
2015 Team |
2015 Status |
2015 Salary |
2015 MPG |
REB per 36 |
Def REB % |
AST per 36 |
AST Ratio |
BLK per 36 |
10-16 ft FG % |
|
Brook Lopez |
27 |
BKN |
UFA (P) |
$15.72 |
29.1 |
9.2 |
17.2 |
0.9 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
47.0% |
|
Al Jefferson |
30 |
CHA |
UFA (P) |
$13.50 |
30.6 |
9.9 |
25.4 |
2.0 |
8.9 |
1.5 |
39.1% |
|
Timofey Mozgov |
28 |
CLE |
UFA (T) |
$4.65 |
25.4 |
10.4 |
21.4 |
1.0 |
6.7 |
1.7 |
27.0% |
|
Tyson Chandler |
32 |
DAL |
UFA |
$13.60 |
30.6 |
13.6 |
27.4 |
1.3 |
11.3 |
1.4 |
46.2% |
|
Marreese Speights |
27 |
GSW |
UFA (T) |
$3.66 |
15.8 |
9.7 |
18.5 |
2.1 |
8.4 |
1.0 |
50.0% |
|
Roy Hibbert |
28 |
IND |
UFA (P) |
$14.90 |
25.2 |
10.2 |
21.9 |
1.6 |
8.4 |
2.3 |
32.5% |
|
DeAndre Jordan |
26 |
LAC |
UFA |
$11.44 |
34.4 |
15.7 |
32.4 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
2.3 |
50.0% |
|
Jordan Hill |
27 |
LAL |
UFA (T) |
$9.00 |
26.8 |
10.7 |
23.4 |
2.0 |
9.9 |
1.0 |
34.3% |
|
Marc Gasol |
30 |
MEM |
UFA |
$15.83 |
33.1 |
8.4 |
21.8 |
4.2 |
17.8 |
1.8 |
42.5% |
|
Kosta Koufos |
26 |
MEM |
UFA |
$3.00 |
16.7 |
11.3 |
25.5 |
1.0 |
7.5 |
1.7 |
33.3% |
|
Alexis Ajinca |
26 |
NOP |
UFA |
$0.98 |
14.2 |
11.8 |
24.8 |
1.8 |
9.6 |
1.9 |
50.8% |
|
Omer Asik |
28 |
NOP |
UFA |
$8.37 |
26.0 |
13.7 |
29.0 |
1.3 |
10.6 |
1.0 |
20.0% |
|
Cole Aldrich |
26 |
NYK |
UFA |
$0.92 |
15.8 |
12.3 |
28.7 |
2.8 |
16.5 |
2.4 |
33.3% |
|
Andrea Bargnani |
29 |
NYK |
UFA |
$11.50 |
27.1 |
5.8 |
14.4 |
2.1 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
45.2% |
|
Enes Kanter |
22 |
OKC |
RFA |
$5.69 |
28.4 |
11.3 |
20.4 |
0.9 |
4.4 |
0.5 |
41.0% |
|
Henry Sims |
25 |
PHI |
RFA |
$0.92 |
18.9 |
9.2 |
19.4 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
0.8 |
40.9% |
|
Joel Freeland |
28 |
POR |
RFA |
$3.01 |
12.6 |
11.3 |
22.3 |
1.0 |
8.3 |
1.1 |
37.5% |
|
Robin Lopez |
27 |
POR |
UFA |
$5.34 |
27.9 |
8.7 |
13.2 |
1.2 |
8.9 |
1.8 |
39.5% |
|
Chuck Hayes |
31 |
TOR |
UFA |
$5.96 |
8.8 |
7.2 |
14.9 |
2.8 |
25.4 |
0.6 |
50.0% |
|
Kevin Seraphin |
25 |
WAS |
UFA |
$3.89 |
15.4 |
8.4 |
17.7 |
1.7 |
9.2 |
1.7 |
44.0% |
|
Pero Antic |
32 |
ATL |
RFA |
$1.25 |
16.5 |
6.6 |
14.0 |
1.7 |
10.9 |
0.5 |
27.3% |
|
Brandon Bass |
29 |
BOS |
UFA |
$6.90 |
23.6 |
4.9 |
14.9 |
1.3 |
10.8 |
0.4 |
40.0% |
|
Kevin Love |
26 |
CLE |
UFA (P) |
$15.72 |
34.0 |
10.4 |
26.3 |
2.4 |
12.1 |
0.6 |
40.8% |
|
Greg Smith |
24 |
DAL |
UFA |
$0.95 |
8.6 |
7.8 |
10.4 |
0.9 |
16.1 |
1.1 |
0.0% |
|
Greg Monroe |
24 |
DET |
UFA |
$5.48 |
31.1 |
11.9 |
25.1 |
2.4 |
11.0 |
0.6 |
32.1% |
|
Ed Davis |
25 |
LAL |
UFA (P) |
$0.98 |
23.2 |
11.7 |
23.1 |
1.8 |
13.3 |
1.9 |
35.3% |
|
Jason Smith |
29 |
NYK |
UFA |
$3.23 |
21.8 |
6.5 |
15.0 |
2.8 |
15.5 |
0.9 |
47.5% |
|
Kyle O’Quinn |
25 |
ORL |
RFA |
$0.92 |
16.1 |
8.7 |
21.4 |
2.6 |
15.5 |
1.7 |
40.0% |
|
Brandan Wright |
27 |
PHX |
UFA |
$5.00 |
19.3 |
8.0 |
8.4 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
42.9% |
|
LaMarcus Aldridge |
29 |
POR |
UFA |
$16.25 |
35.5 |
10.4 |
22.9 |
1.8 |
6.8 |
1.0 |
39.2% |
The Pipe Dreams
DeAndre Jordan (UFA)
Marc Gasol (UFA)
Kevin Love (player option)
LaMarcus Aldridge (UFA)
There is a universe in which one of these players would sign with the Bucks. We do not live in that universe. The Clippers are committed to Jordan, likewise for Memphis and Gasol. Aldridge is a flight risk in Portland, but I doubt Milwaukee would make his short list of destinations. Kevin Love certainly has a more tenuous position in Cleveland, but opting out of the last year worth $15.7 million before the cap explosion next summer is unlikely.
The Questionable Fits
Roy Hibbert (player option)
Brook Lopez (player option)
Al Jefferson (player option)
Enes Kanter (RFA)
Besides the debatable availability of those in this group, all but Hibbert are either questionable defenders or high-usage offensive players, and none exactly fit the bill for what the team needs at the price they would command. Lopez is perhaps the most intriguing: ultra talented offensively, but he also brings injury questions, a lack of foot speed and a sketchy history on the boards. Hibbert is an interesting possibility, given his defensive acumen, but he's a behemoth who doesn't necessarily fill the mobility requirement, and certainly doesn't offer much on offense.
The Expensive Dates
Greg Monroe (UFA)
Tyson Chandler (UFA)
Omer Asik (UFA)
These guys project to fit relatively well in the Bucks' scheme, but their salary figures (and the timing of free agency) might prohibit the Bucks from landing them if retaining both Middleton and Dudley is a priority. Chandler and Asik would be the low-usage rebounding rim-protectors many of us covet; Asik struggled at times last year, while Chandler is a much better player but also on the wrong side of 30 (turning 33 before the season). Monroe is only 25 and offers a different set of talents (post scoring and rebounding), but will probably be the highest-paid of the bunch and isn't a strong defender. This group represents the most likely "big splash" the Bucks could make in free agency.
The Unlikely Possibilities
Robin Lopez (UFA)
Timofey Mozgov (team option)
Marreese Speights (team option)
Jordan Hill (team option)
Each one of these guys might fit pretty well on the Bucks, and could be gotten for a reasonable price. But their team situations make me doubt that they'd actually be available. Mozgov was part of the revitalization of the Cleveland LeBrons, and will likely meet Speights' squad in the Finals next week. Lopez is the most "available" of this group, but I think Portland will make an effort to promote continuity as they try to make another push with their current core.
The Backups
Kosta Koufos (UFA)
Alexis Ajinca (UFA)
Kevin Seraphin (UFA)
Brandon Bass (UFA)
Brandan Wright (UFA)
Henry Sims (RFA)
Pero Antic (RFA)
This group contains a number of backup players who may be interested in the chance to see more minutes or start games, though it's not clear any of them are even as good as the Bucks' existing bigs. Koufos and Ajinca would both be upgrades to the team's rebounding and rim protection, and they have the high wingspan/height ratio that the Bucks' front office loves. Seraphin has been around seemingly forever even though he's only 25, but doesn't do enough things well to really merit consideration. Bass and Wright are better as PFs and don't rebound well enough to be good fits.
The Long-shots
Kyle O'Quinn (RFA)
Cole Aldrich (UFA)
Andrea Bargnani (UFA)
Henry Sims (RFA)
Ed Davis (player option)
Jason Smith (UFA)
On this list, we have members of the Magic, the Lakers, the 76ers, and the Knicks. Not exactly what you'd expect when looking for contributors...but there's something there for each guy. Let's dive in!
Much has been written about O'Quinn and his prospective fit on the team. He's a strong guy with an impressive wingspan, and does a few things well, particularly passing from the mid/high post. He fell out of the rotation in Orlando, which could be either due to his performance or a subversive attempt to prevent any other teams from signing him to an offer the Magic wouldn't match. I'd be OK with seeing him brought in to compete for minutes with Zaza and Henson...but O'Quinn also duplicates a lot of what Zaza offers.
Not as much has been written about Ed Davis, but he scored, rebounded, and passed relatively well in a low-usage role for a low salary on a dreadful Lakers squad. Leaving Los Angeles isn't the easiest thing to do, but Davis' productivity and ability to opt-out could be his ticket away from Tinseltown and all the mean things Kobe Bryant has probably said to him. Whether or not he's on the Bucks is another story.
To me, Cole Aldrich is easily the most intriguing player on this list. He played limited minutes on an awful New York team last season, but the stats paint the picture of a guy who can rebound, pass, and defend the rim at a minimum salary. HIs teammate Jason Smith also rebounded well in limited minutes, as well as shot Zaza-esque from 10-16 feet (47.5%), while getting paid in the same ballpark as Jerryd Bayless. These guys somehow backed up former first-overall draft pick Andrea Bargnani, who is probably washed up and may never play in the NBA again.
BUT...
Wow, sorry, I almost went into a long diatribe about how everybody's looking for a center who can stretch the floor and do a little bit of everything, and how Bargnani might be motivated to dedicate himself to being a team-first big man in a system coordinated by a former player he trusts, and how it would be a great underdog story to see the "worst #1 overall pick in recent history" to reinvent himself as a versatile big on a team full of versatile wings. Man, that would be silly.
So that's what I've found over the course of my research. What does it say to you? Any choices on here that you hadn't considered before? Anybody who might be a better option over your preferred target? Let's talk about it!