FanPost

The Bucks and the salary cap

This is just a quick primer on the Bucks current salary cap situation, and what the Bucks would have to do if they want to clear enough cap space to sign a significant free agent in the future. All salary data is using B-Ref. The salary cap is $99M this year, with projections of $101M in 2018 and $108M in 2019. Beyond that the assumption would be the standard 4% cap increase as defined in the CBA. I included first round draft picks in 2018 and 2019, with the 2020 first round pick being sent to Phoenix to complete the Bledsoe-Monroe trade. Teams are also required to have a minimum of 12 players on the roster. If they fall below that number, the rookie minimum salary (just under $1M) is added for each open slot.

2017-2018 Season

The salary cap is $99M and the Bucks salary is $116.7M, which leaves the team $17.7M over the cap. This is still $2.2M under the luxury tax threshold.

2018-2019 Season

The salary cap is projected to be $101M, and the Bucks have $107M committed to 12 players. This assumes the team picks up Thon's option year. The pending free agents are: Jabari Parker, Jason Terry, Rashad Vaughn, and DeAndre Liggins. The team is $6M over the salary cap.

2019-2020 Season

The salary cap is projected to be $108M, and the Bucks have $88M committed to 10 players. This assumes the team picks up options for Thon and DJ Wilson. KM has a player option on his contract. The pending free agents are: Eric Bledsoe, Mirza Teletovic, and Malcolm Brogdon. The team could be $20M under the salary cap (if KM opts in) or $33M under the salary cap (if KM opts out).

2020-2021 Season

The salary cap is projected to be $112M, and the Bucks have $57M committed to 5 players. This assumes the team picks up the option for DJ Wilson. Tony Snell has a player option on his contract. The pending free agents are: Khris Middleton (if he opted into his player option), John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova, Thon Maker, and Sterling Brown. The team could be $55M under the salary cap (if Snell opts in) or $70M under the salary cap (if Snell opts out and they waive Wilson).

When does the team have cap space?

In the summer of 2018, the Bucks need to make a decision on Jabari Parker. He is a restricted free agent, which gives the team several options. If they give him the qualifying offer, which is a 1 year contract for $8.9M, they have the right of first refusal on any contract offer he receives. The team could also work out a contract extension, or waive him.

In the summer of 2019, the Bucks need to make decisions on Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, and most likely Khris Middleton. Brogdon is a restricted free agent. Bledsoe and Middleton are both unrestricted free agents, but the Bucks hold their Bird Rights. That means the Bucks can offer more money and more years on a contract than any other team. However, the Bucks do not have the right to match other contract offers.

What the Bucks choose to do with these four players will determine if they have the cap space listed above. A maximum contract offer starts at 25% of the salary cap for a player with 0-6 years of experience, 30% of the salary cap for a player with 7-9 years of experience, and 35% of the salary cap for a player with 10+ years of experience. The Bucks could open enough cap space to sign one max contract free agent in 2019 if they waive Jabari, Bledsoe, Brogdon, and KM opts. This is... unlikely to happen. The Bucks could open up enough cap space to sign one max contract free agent in 2020 if they keep only one of the players who reach free agency between now and then. Just for an example, let's assume it is KM. The Buck's roster would be: Giannis, KM, Snell, Wilson, two late first round picks, a max free agent, a mid level free agent, and seven minimum contract players. Let me repeat that: seven minimum contract players. That is... unlikely to happen.

Why can't the Bucks open up cap space for max contract free agents, like other teams did?

Miami is famous for being able to open up enough cap space for max contract free agents. They found a way to get three of them in LBJ, Bosh, and Wade in a year the salary cap remained basically flat. Philly has had max cap space for years. The Lakers have enough cap space for a max free agent next year, and are trying to get enough space for two max free agents. Why can't the Bucks do that? Because the Bucks arranged their contracts to specifically avoid it.

Having enough cap space for one or more max contract free agents is a risky proposition. A team needs to plan years in advance, so most/all of your player contracts end in the same offseason. Then you waive the rights to those players, to wipe them off the books. It leaves you with a roster of rookie contract players and cap holds. Then you sign your free agents, and fill in with minimum contract veterans willing to come play for you. You might convince the top players to sign, just like Miami did with LBJ and Bosh. You might end up with second options, just like New York did with Melo and Amare Stoudemire. You might end up missing on all of them, just like Phoenix did when they missed on LMA. There is a lot of risk, because most top players end up agreeing to free agent contracts in the first few days of free agency. You won't necessarily know that you missed on your first option until it is too late to pick up the second. If you miss out, you lose a whole season.

The Bucks avoided that risk by staggering their contracts, and using veteran contracts as placeholders to pay for future big extensions. Greg Monroe (since traded for Bledsoe) ended in 2018, just when Jabari is eligible for a big extension. Mirza comes off the books in 2019, just when KM is eligible for a big extension. Henson and Delly's contracts both end in 2020, just when Thon is eligible for a big extension - should he play well enough to deserve one.

With Giannis locked up long term and playing like a superstar, the Bucks won't take the risk of shedding enough salary to sign a big time free agent. They will take a more conservative route, that they have been planning for years. They will continue to build around him. That means making good draft picks, and signing value-added minimum contract players. It means finding the right players to use salary cap exceptions - the MLE for $9M or the BAE for $3M. And it means taking advantage of the trade market.

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