FanPost

Bridging the Talent Gap - Age of Top 4 Players

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

(Editor's note: Many thanks to R983 for once again taking the time to put together an update to the "Bridging the Roster Talent Gap" series! We've moved this edition up to the front page for visibility. Enjoy!)

This is a follow-up to my Bridging the Talent Gap Part 2.5 article, which can be found at this link.

I wanted to compare the ages of the "big 4" players from that article, to see how different teams compare to each other in future potential and likely growth/progression. I also wanted to see if the Bucks really are a young team.

I don't think there's really a need to say much more, since this is a pretty simple concept, not much detail involved in this one, so here it is:

This is the color code key I will be using for player ages. Blue teams are Babies, Green teams are Young, Yellow teams are Younger-Prime, Orange teams are Older-Prime, and Red teams are Aging.

If you have a Baby team, you shouldn't be worried about winning whatsoever. If you have a Young team, you're probably stuck in the middle of winning and losing, but should be trending upward. If you have a Young-Prime team, you should be trending upward and seeing clear growth and potential to be a conference contender. If you're an Older-Prime team, you should be contending for your conference title and a spot in the Finals, because your window is shrinking. If you're an Aging team, you should consider blowing it up unless you are actively competing for a title.

Key
Below 24
24-25.9
26-27.9
27-29.9
30+

These are the same players from the Bridging the Talent Gap 2.5 article, with their ages averaged:

Total Score Team Average Age Top Dog Second Option Third Banana Fourth Wheel
296 Warriors 28.25 Curry - 2 Durant - 4 Draymond - 18 Klay - 20
270 Rockets 28 Harden - 3 C Paul - 6 Capela - 31 E Gordon - 97
266 Cavs 29.5 Lebron - 1 Love - 35 G Hill - 46 Nance Jr - 57
264 Pelicans 26 A Davis - 8 Cousins - 17 Mirotic - 41 Jrue Holiday - 44
256 Celtics 25.5 Hayward - 11 Kyrie - 13 Horford - 19 Tatum - 60
232 TWolves 27.75 J Butler - 10 Towns - 27 T Gibson - 54 Teague - 72
215 Nuggets 24.25 Jokic - 16 G Harris - 38 Millsap - 42 J Murray - 52
211 Raptors 28 DeRozan - 22 Lowry - 25 Ibaka - 53 Valanciunas - 74
191 Bucks 24.75 Giannis - 7 Bledsoe - 63 Khris - 66 Jabari - 80
189 Thunder 25.75 P George - 12 Westbrook - 26 S Adams - 73 J Grant - 174
183 Wizards 27 Beal - 21 Porter Jr - 36 Wall - 69 Gortat - 93
176 Spurs 31.5 Kawhi - 5 P Gasol - 76 Aldridge - 78 Gay - 86
175 76ers 26 Embiid - 15 Redick - 50 Simmons - 71 Covington - 77
173 Clippers 28.5 Lou - 28 Gallinari - 43 D Jordan - 47 T Harris - 81
171 Hornets 28.75 Kemba - 24 Howard - 48 M Williams - 55 C Zeller - 75
166 Pacers 24.25 Oladipo - 9 Collison - 62 M Turner - 94 Sabonis - 100
161 Jazz 25.5 Gobert - 33 Ingles - 39 Favors - 56 D Mitchell - 67
146 TBlazers 25.5 Lillard - 14 McCollum - 51 Nurkic - 106 Napier - 128
138 Pistons 26.25 Drummond - 34 Griffin 40 R Jackson - 65 Bullock - 115
132 Heat 28.25 Whiteside - 32 J. Johnson - 59 Dragic - 64 Adabayo - 117
118 Suns 23 Booker - 29 E Payton - 68 Warren - 83 Len - 96
116 Grizzlies 30 Conley - 23 Tyreke - 61 M Gasol - 105 Parsons - 172
85 Lakers 24.5 I Thomas - 30 Kuzma - 89 Randle - 101 C.-Pope - 127
64 Magic 25.5 Vucevic - 49 A Gordon - 84 Fournier - 91 J Simmons - 170
59 Mavericks 24.75 Seth Curry - 45 H Barnes - 82 Noel - 116 Ferrell - 130
56 Nets 27.5 Lin - 58 Dinwiddie - 70 Carroll - 114 J Harris - 147
55 Knicks 26.5 Porzingis - 38 Kanter - 98 O'Quinn - 108 C Lee - 126
44 Bulls 22.25 Markannen - 88 LaVine - 92 Portis - 99 Nwaba - 136
32 Hawks 24.75 Collins - 87 Dedmon - 95 Bazemore - 122 Waller-Prince 133
10 Kings 27.25 Bogdanovic - 104 C.-Stein - 153 Hield - 154 Randolph - 200

Observations:

  • The Bucks are a Young team. In fact, when comparing the top 4 players, there are only 5 teams (Nuggets, Pacers, Suns, Lakers, Bulls) younger than Milwaukee and another 2 (Mavs, Hawks) that are the same age.
  • However, despite currently being in the Young group, the Bucks have nothing in the way of non-top 4 young players with significant potential on the roster or good draft picks, so we are going to age quickly compared to most teams. We need to find the winning formula quickly, whether it is by trade or by.....hoping our current roster just improves a bunch?
  • If your team isn't good and also isn't young, you're in deep trouble. For instance, the Kings and Nets might be in serious trouble.
  • The Grizzlies probably have the worst outlook of anyone, unless they can trade Conley for some goods. They have Tons of long-term money invested into an Aging team that is also tanking...that's not generally an effective strategy. However, it could potentially lead to a quick turnaround next year if their rookie is good. Things don't look good for the Spurs either, who are stuck right in a really bad middle spot.
  • The Celtics and Nuggets are in extremely enviable positions, though the Bucks aren't too terribly far behind. The Celtics have the additional future assets though, which really sets them apart (and being a top 2 seed already doesn't hurt).
Since I removed the Top Dog in my previous article, I thought it would be interesting to remove each roster's oldest player and see what happened. Note, I'm not removing the Top Dog here, just the oldest player, whichever member of the "big 4" he happens to be.

Here's the new age results, With The Oldest of the Four Removed:

Team Average Age
Warriors 28
Rockets 26.67
Cavs 28.33
Pelicans 25.67
Celtics 23.67
TWolves 26.33
Nuggets 21.67
Raptors 27
Bucks 23.67
Thunder 24.67
Wizards 25
Spurs 29.67
76ers 23.67
Clippers 27.67
Hornets 27.67
Pacers 22.33
Jazz 24
TBlazers 25
Pistons 25.67
Heat 27.33
Suns 22.67
Grizzlies 29
Lakers 23
Magic 24.67
Mavericks 24
Nets 26.33
Knicks 24.67
Bulls 21.33
Hawks 23.67
Kings 24.33

Observations:

  • Biggest Movers: Nuggets (Millsap), 76ers (Redick), and Kings (Randolph): that's bad news for teams that have to compete with the Nuggets and 76ers.
  • Other big movers: Celtics (Horford), Spurs (Pau), Wizards (Gortat), Pacers (Collison), and Knicks (Lee): that's further bad news for Bucks fans, because we have to play the 76ers, Celtics, Wizards, and Pacers a lot, and they're set up for success even when losing their oldest top 4 player.
  • The Nets are really screwed, since they don't even have their own pick to replenish with. They better hope they can keep finding gems like Dinwiddie and making bold trades.
  • Does this mean a lot? Not really, because if you removed these oldest players, teams would disproportionately regress. However, I thought it was interesting.

Let me know what you think!

FanPosts are user-generated blogs-within-the-blog. We require that members abide by our <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/community-guidelines" target="new">community guidelines</a> and keep things respectable.