FanPost

2%, the ugly step child


This is a continuation of my previous fanpost and the importance of 2% and its relationship to offensive success. And what it might mean for this draft. The 2 point shot is by far the most common shot and yet it is the least talked about.

In the past 3 years, two trends are occurring, the number of 2's has decreased from 60.5/g to 57.1/g, but 2% has increased from 49.1% to 51.0%.

The difference between the 15th team and the 5th in 3% this past season is that the 5th place team would score 1.13 more points a game on the same number of attempts.

The difference between the the 15th team and 5th in 2% this past season is that the 5th place team would score 3.65 (more than 3X the increase) more points a game on the same number of attempts. If you want to improve how many points you score per game, it is easier to do by increasing your 2%.

Over the past 3 seasons, the top 6 teams in ORtg had an average rank of 5.6 in 2% (smaller the number, the better). 83% of the top 6 teams in ORtg were in the top 10 in 2%.

Over the past 3 seasons, the top 6 in ORtg ranked 9.8 in 3par (66% of them in the top 10 in 3par) and top 6 in ORtg ranked 8.3 in 3% (62% of them in the top 10 of 3%).

I am not saying 3% or 3par are not important, because clearly they are important. What I am saying is that we are not putting enough weight into the importance of team 2%. It is the most common shot and has been the second most important shooting stat after TS% in the last 3 years.

As the draft approaches, imo, focusing on players like Z. Smith (56% 2% in conference play), Troy Brown (57% 2% in conference play) or Hutchison (55% 2% in conference) might make sense. One of the many things that makes Giannis great is his 55.4% on 2's. History has shown us that many of the greats have had wing side kicks that were also very efficient at 2%.

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