FanPost

3% Diff, The Pistons, the power of 2%, and what it might mean for the Milwaukee Bucks

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports


3% diff, the difference between what you shoot from 3 and what you give up, is one of the strongest indicators of winning% in the NBA.

In fact, in the past 8 seasons, teams like the Pistons that shot 37.2% from 3, but gave up less than 36% from distance, averaged 54 wins. Only 4 teams have had a losing record, and the Pistons have done it twice.

When you look closer at the Pistons stats from last year it becomes even more confusing. My first thought is they must be losing the extra possession battle. However, they are actually getting more than 2 extra possessions a game when you factor in offensive rebounding and winning the turnover battle.

So why isn't a solid 3% diff and 2 extra possessions a game not leading to more wins?........

And the answer comes back to the power of 2 fg%. (Please note that i am not saying 3% is not important). Fun fact, in the past 4 years, 96% of the teams that finish in the top quarter in 2 fg% have made the playoffs (compared to 82% for the top quarter in 3%). 2%, imo, is the most underrated stat.

The Pistons last year finished 26th in 2%. They also finished 24th in shots from 0-3 feet. When a team is less threatening at attacking the rim, it can lead to less free throw attempts. Last year they were 25th in FTr. And free throws are the most efficient of all shots.

So what does this all mean beside it is good not to be a Piston's fan? The Buck's are one of the better 2% teams (6th in 2%, thank you Giannis), 6th at shots at the rim and 4th in FTr. But we were not good in 3% diff (29th only ahead of the Suns).

The Buck's have done two things this off season, hired a coach from the Spur coaching tree with a history of a positive 3% diff and acquired players with the potential to make 3's. If the Buck's can become a positive 3% diff team and continue their 2% trend, then the wins should follow.

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