Welcome back to another year of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don’t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. Today, we’re prognosticating on the eve of the regular season on some Over/Unders for various players across the roster.
O/U - 41.5 3-pointers made for Robin Lopez
Mitchell: I’m going way, way over. RoLo might not be as prolific a shooter as his brother, but he’ll average more than 1.0 3PM per game.
Andrew: I agree with Mitchell, taking the over on 41.5 made three-pointers for Robin seems like an easy decision. Anyone on the Bucks roster has the green light from deep, and I suspect opposing defenses will let him shoot the three.
Gabe: Count me in on the over as well. We all know that the three-ball was the mantra of the Bucks last year, and I doubt Robin will be an exception. Shooters shoot on this Bucks team, especially the big men.
Adam: I’m trying my best to stick with what I said on the podcast, but I can’t recall exactly, so I’ll go under on this one just barely. Even if he shoots two per game, which seems like a lot potentially, I’m not sure he’ll hit any better than 30%. That equates out to 49.2, and if he misses any time or isn’t quite the chucker we expect, I could see him going a bit beneath this line.
Riley: I’m hitting the under here if only because I’ve got my doubts about how quickly he can transition his mindset. Yes, Brook turned into a 130+ made-three guy in one off-season, but Robin comes to Milwaukee as a sub who may be asked to provide different looks as part of bench units. There were a lot of bench guys a year ago who eeked into the 50s in made threes, and they’re all “proven” shooters; it’s too early to say the same about Robin.
O/U - 100 minutes with the LoBros sharing the court together
Mitchell: I’ll go under on this; I just don’t see the need to pair the Lopez twins together when there are already a pair of bench bigs (Ersan Ilyasova and D.J. Wilson) that make enough sense at the 4 or 5 spots.
Andrew: Yeah, I am not sure we will see much of the LoBros on the floor together. Not sure that would be a recipe for success.
Gabe: Over. Not only do I think it could happen through the flow of some experimental lineups that Bud rolls out, but you never know what role injuries may play, especially with Ersan.
Adam: I’m with Gabe on this one. Both have been reliable health-wise the last few years, and I think Bud can’t help himself getting funky with some big lineups. It doesn’t get much funkier than these two together.
Riley: Your answer almost relies completely on how much blow-out garbage time/load management games there are. I anticipate there being quite a bit of both which gives Bud room to be strange. Over.
O/U - 275 dunks for Giannis
Mitchell: ...that’s a lot of dunks.
Andrew: Considering he only needs one dribble to get from half-court to the paint, I’ll take the over.
Gabe: Hammer the over, folks!
Adam: I’ll take the over, even if he notched nearly 300 last year, which seems insane, his preseason seemed to illustrate he has no intention of slowing down with his pummeling of the NBA’s rims.
Riley: He’s had like 4,000 dunks in the preseason already, so this is an easy over.
O/U - 6.2 3-point attempts per game for Khris Middleton
Mitchell: 6.2 3PA/game is right where Middleton was last season, and his 3PAr was only 0.413. Khris famously “feuded” with Mike Budenholzer last season, preferring to work inside the arc more often than he was being asked to launch from beyond it. That led to Middleton’s first All Star appearance, making this over/under incredibly difficult. I’ll take the under, but only because the team has more quick-trigger shooters on it than last year.
Andrew: I don’t think we’ll see Middleton hoist it up from deep more than six times per game. The additions of Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews will take a bite into his volume, but it will be for the better.
Gabe: Like Andrew, I think the roles of Korver and Matthews will impede Middleton’s 3PA a little bit. However, this is a very difficult line to make a decision on. It could definitely go both ways.
Adam: I’ll take the over, if only slightly. While I’m sure he’ll work within the midrange given the preponderance of willing shooters dotting Milwaukee’s arc, I could see Khris having more opportunities to hit big triples down the stretch of games this season. His pull-up three is deadly, and with Brogdon gone, there’s more ball handling to go around and he should get a few more chances.
Riley: Under. Khris got paid handsomely as a guy who never fully bought-in to supersizing his three point attempts, and I’m just not sure this is the season where he begins to take that advice and really apply it. As he ages we should take heart in the opportunity for him to transform into a constant threat outside, but I don’t see this being the year it happens.
O/U - 6.0 assists/game for Giannis
Mitchell: As with last year, I think Giannis’ minutes totals will be low enough to keep him from hitting certain benchmarks. His points and rebounds will probably remain about the same, but I can’t see him increasing his assists (despite the previously-mentioned increase in quick-trigger shooters on this roster) dramatically enough to crack 6.0.
Andrew: Hmm...that’s a tough one. The Bucks are going to blow a lot of teams out this season, so we could see him rest more than he did last season. Even with a hypothetical dip in minutes, I don’t see why he can’t hit that mark, especially with more prolific shooters on the team.
Gabe: After taking a slight dip from 5.4 APG to 4.8 in 2017-18, Antetokounmpo brought that stat back up to 5.9 APG last season. We’ve heard him say how he seeks out shooting as one of his skills to improve on, but I can assure you he’ll be looking to facilitate more this season, especially considering the additions of Korver and Matthews. Give me the over.
Adam: Over. At 5.9 assists/game last season, I just can’t see how he doesn’t improve it a bit with the arrival of willing gunners. Players shot 35.4% on triples via passes from Giannis last year, right around the team’s average, and I could see some variance shooting that figure up a bit this year. I also foresee some slick inside dishes to Robin Lopez in his future.
Riley: Times like these where the Passes That Would’ve Been Assists (PTWBA? Let’s workshop it) stat would be handy. I like an over here if only because “guard mentality” is vague enough for us to read whatever we want into it. For me, Guard Giannis is Facilitator Giannis, and Facilitator Giannis gets assists with this team.
O/U - 25 minutes/game average for any of Wes Matthews, Donte DiVincenzo, Kyle Korver, Sterling Brown or Pat Connaughton
Mitchell: Under on each and every one. The Bucks might not have a logjam on the wing, but each of these players has a clear case for why they should be able to contribute. And because we know the nature of most NBA role players is temperature-driven (who’s hot vs. who’s not), I think there will be a cycling between these guys of who is in the rotation and waiting for their turn, all season long.
Andrew: Give me the over for Wes, and the under on the rest. Matthews is a cossummate pro, and I really believe that he can help the Bucks on both ends of the floor. It seemed like every time Wes would play against the Bucks, he would destroy them. It’s nice having him be on our side for once.
Gabe: I’ll take the under. Out of these options, I view Matthews as the one to most likely achieve this — and I think he could be on pace as the season begins. However, as we progress through the year, I think his minutes will plateau whether it be from injuries or other options arising. As for the rest of them, I think they’ll fulfill their contributions to this team off the bench — just not at a 25 minutes per game clip.
Adam: I’ll go under too. I can’t see this rotation being anything but strongly democratic given the wealth of guys who seem deserving of minutes. For what it’s worth, Brogdon averaged just over 28 minutes/game last season. I don’t think anyone will grab ahold of this position in that way. If someone does, they’ve either excelled in a surprising way, or the rest of the pack has disappointed!
Riley: Unders across the board. Replacing Malcolm Brogdon’s minutes will be more the job of a comittee than a single individual in my opinion, regardless of whatever Wes was promised to join the team. If Matthews picks up an injury this could change (Pat logged 29.0 MPG and Sterling 26.5 when Brogdon went down late last season), but optimally it’ll be a balanced approach.