FanPost

Bucks v Raptors


This post may age poorly if the 76ers end up winning the series, but if they do, I'll go back and make another post about Philly.

I wanted to see how the Bucks stack up against the Raptors, since we haven't really seen them fully healthy and post trade deadline. I'm going to look at how the rosters compare, and mention how well some players have been playing in the playoffs, and strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Starters

Point Guard:

  • Bledsoe v Lowry
  • I feel really good about this matchup as a way for Bledsoe to get on track after (predictably) struggling against Boston. He seems to be really comfortable playing against Lowry.
  • Lowry has been (also predictably) shooting poorly in the playoffs, with just a 52.6 TS% and only 28% from 3. He and Bledsoe share this problem.
  • Lowry is a better passer, but Bledsoe is a better defender, so I expect this matchup to be fairly even. My hope is that Bledsoe shakes his playoff demons and makes Lowry feel bad.
Shooting Guard:
  • Brogdon v Danny Green
  • I am assuming that given our rest period, Brogdon will be back in the starting lineup in the ECF.
  • Green has been playing well so far in the playoffs, though not quite as well as in the regular season. I expect this matchup to be very close, given that Green is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and has great size.
  • If Brogdon struggles with conditioning or shot-making, maybe we will go back to Mirotic in the starting lineup. I am not sure how that would work out against Green.
Small Forward:
  • Khris v Kawhi
  • When you've got two first name guys, you know it is a great matchup.
  • Khris has been playing very well in the playoffs on both ends of the floor; he has easily been a top 15 playoff performer in my opinion.
  • However, he has not been anywhere near Kawhi's level. Kawhi is arguably outperforming Giannis so far and shooting at historic levels.
  • Kawhi is scoring over 30 points a game and has an unbelievable TS% of 69.0.
  • Passing is the area where Khris has an edge over Kawhi, as Kawhi's assists and turnovers are close, whereas Khris has been passing and protecting the ball very well.
  • I hope Khris will be able to slow Kawhi down from the blistering pace he has been scoring at; if he does, and plays just reasonably well on offense, I think we have a great chance of winning the series.
Power Forward:
  • Giannis v Siakam
  • We know how good Giannis has been, so I am not going to bore you with his accolades. He's a top 3 player in the playoffs.
  • Siakam has been playing quite well, though he has struggled from 3, shooting under 32%.
  • One of the largest edges for the Bucks may come in the rebounding department, where Giannis is outrebounding Siakam per minute 13 to 7. If Giannis can double Siakam's rebounding in this series, the Bucks have a huge advantage.
Center:
  • Lopez v Marc Gasol
  • This is the new part of the matchup, and a fascinating one. The Raptors traded for Gasol presumably to match up with Embiid and Lopez (and maybe also Vucevic), since Ibaka and Valanciunas were less equipped to do that. So far, it has paid dividends, as Gasol dominated Vuce and is holding Embiid to numbers far below his averages in some of the games of that series.
  • Gasol doesn't score much, only 9 points per game in the playoffs so far, but his scoring has been very efficient and he adds a good passing element.
  • Lopez is actually under this number right now, with only 8.3 points/game, and a shoddy 52.8 TS%.
  • Lopez (like Bledsoe and Lowry) is only shooting 28% from 3 so far in the playoffs; we need that trend to reverse. Gasol, meanwhile, is shooting 44% from 3.
  • Both players have difficult rebound numbers to evaluate, since Lopez boxes out rather than grabbing boards himself, and I would assume Gasol does some of this as well.
All in all, the starting lineups look extremely even on paper to me. These teams have the most talent-balanced starting lineups in the league in my opinion (and that does include Philly).
Giannis = Kawhi
Khris = Siakam
Lopez = Gasol
Bledsoe = Lowry
Green = Brogdon
I think each of our guys has the ability to be better than that counterpart (with the possible exception of Lopez), but they will have to prove it. Toronto's roster certainly looks more similar to our than Boston's did.

Benches

Point Guard:

  • Hill v VanVleet
  • This matchup may be the first area of tremendous advantage for the Bucks. Despite his reputation, VanVleet has been playing very poorly this year in the postseason. He has a 39.6 TS%, and yes I meant to type 39.
  • Hill, on the other hand, is having a tremendous playoffs, outplaying Bledsoe and even Kyrie in terms of efficiency. If Hill can dominate VanVleet (and even Lowry), that would be a huge win for the Bucks.
  • Jeremy Lin is another guy Toronto has on the bench, but they have not really used him in the playoffs so far.
Shooting Guard:
  • Connaughton v Powell
  • PatC has played over 28 minutes per game for the Bucks so far in the playoffs. I do not expect this to continue with Brogdon back, but given how well he has played, I still expect him to be the backup SG we turn to most often.
  • PatC has collected 8 rebounds per game, which is incredible.
  • Powell has played fairly well, hitting 3's at 37.5% and doing a decent job on the glass.
  • I think the Bucks have another advantage here, as long as PatC can keep hitting 3's at at least 33.3%.
Small Foward:
  • None
  • I do not expect either team to use a backup SF very often, instead going either big or small with the other players listed.
  • Sterling or Snell could get some run here, but given Sterling's rather abysmal play and Snell's place warming the bench against Boston, I think Bud has made a clear choice with who he likes the best off the bench right now. However, either guy could come in handy and are better than Toronto's other backup wings.
Power Forward:
  • Mirotic v None
  • Niko has had a solid playoffs so far, helping the Bucks in unconventional fashion by starting at SG against Boston when Sterling proved ineffective. I do not expect to see more Niko-SG minutes, but I do expect him to stay a piece of the rotation, given his floor spacing abilities (especially if Lopez remains cold).
  • Toronto uses Ibaka to back up both of their big spots and really has no other option on the roster.
Center:
  • Ilyasova v Ibaka
  • Earlier in the season, I would've expected to give a huge edge to Ibaka here, but he has basically collapsed this season. He is shooting only 21.4% from 3 in the playoffs and failing to provide effective defense.
  • Ersan has also not shot very well, with just a 52.2 TS%, but was still very effective overall against Boston.
  • I expect both bigs to at times look good and bad. Ersan actually collects more rebounds than Ibaka per minute, and his ability to take charges may really frustrate Ibaka, who has had problems this season keeping his emotions in check.
  • Mark it down now, I am placing a prediction on Ibaka breaking Ersan's nose in this series.

Coaches

  • Budenholzer v Nurse
  • Both coaches are new to their team, though Bud has more experience as a head coach from his time in Atlanta. Both have shown the ability to adjust after a game one loss in the playoffs, and both are considered very innovative.
  • I would give the edge to Bud here, given his edge in experience.
Final Thoughts:

  • Overall, I think Toronto, while matching up very well in the starting lineup and being very talented, does not seem to have the depth to compete with the Bucks.
  • After a tiring series against Philly, their players may fatigue when they are forced to again play heavy minutes against the Bucks, who will have fresh starters after playing lighter minutes against Boston and only 5 games.
  • The Bucks bench could be a huge X-factor in this series, with its ability to not only relieve the starters, but to also go on runs even against opponents' starting players, which we saw repeatedly against Boston.
  • The Bucks had a big edge in rebounding during the regular season, which I think we could see carry over into this series, despite Toronto's addition of Gasol.
  • Despite Kawhi Leonard being a human flamethrower in the playoffs so far, I feel good at Khris's ability to at least make him work for it on both ends, and I think Giannis has a similar edge over Siakam as Kawhi has over Khris, if not larger.
  • When the playoffs started, I picked the Raptors to beat the Bucks in 6 and make the Finals.
  • Now, I feel quite confident in the Bucks, and am going to pick Bucks to win in 6, despite my naturally pessimistic nature in making predictions.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts on the series in the comments!

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