FanPost

Plotting a Path to Defeat ‘The Wall’

Every day for the last 3 and a half years I’ve woken up and immediately thought the same thing: This could be the year MY Milwaukee Bucks win a championship. With an unquestioned top three player in the league, two versatile All-Star caliber guards and an exciting new supporting cast, it’s hard to not be optimistic once again in 2021.

But there’s still one roughly 20-foot-wide, seven-foot-tall obstacle between the Bucks and the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Wall.

The Wall needs no explanation, this fanbase has watched and despised teams who load the paint against Giannis ever since Brad Stevens deployed it in the first round of the 2018 playoffs. It’s become the only viable defensive strategy to slow down the back-to-back MVP, and the Bucks have largely failed at figuring out the appropriate counter measures.

So… how does this year’s team lineup against The Wall(s) of the Eastern Conference and how do we ultimately bring it tumbling down?

Jrue Holiday will certainly draw some attention away from Giannis and spread the floor, he’s 40% from three through ten games. Our free agent additions will help as well, as teams will be forced to close out hard on DJ Augustin, Bobby Portis and Brynn Forbes.

Portis in particular will be crucial in bringing some of Boston, Miami, Philly, Toronto and Brooklyn’s big bodies out of the lane. Whereas last season Coach Budenholzer was forced to choose between the shooting of Ersan Illyasova or the rebounding/defense of Robin Lopez, Portis gives the Bucks a nice mix of both skillsets.

For some reason however, it doesn’t feel like the Bucks can beat The Wall on talent alone. In every series except (arguably) the 2019 ECF against the Raptors, the Bucks have been the more talented team on paper, but fell short because we couldn’t figure out what to do against a defense that solely focuses on stopping our best player.

In 2018 the Celtics were missing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, but the way they used Al Horford, Aron Baynes and Semi Ojeleye was enough to win crucial games 5 and 7 of the series. After getting by them in 2019, Giannis ran into an even bigger and better constructed wall of Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Most recently, we saw an undersized Heat team pack driving lanes with their wings. Once Giannis got past them, he’d have Bam Adebayo sitting there waiting.

Clearly we need to switch it up, and something the Bucks may consider is limiting the amount offensive sets where Giannis starts on the perimeter. Moving him into a more post-dominant role may be more effective for two main reasons:

1. More post-ups will slow the game down for Giannis.

When The Wall is built correctly, Giannis is forced to make the decision to pass or shoot while on the move, often times fighting through two to three defenders. Sometimes it works and he’ll make a crazy pass-out-of-shot to someone on the perimeter. But just as often he ends up stuck in the air, unsure of what do to.

One direct outcome of these moments is Giannis’s high charge numbers. He led the NBA with 65 offensive fouls in 2019, did so again last season with 58, and already has 10 through as many games this year. In the season opener against the Celtics alone, Boston’s help defense drew four charges and forced Giannis to the bench in the first half.

By starting down low, teams will be forced to come to him. That will allow him to take a moment to process the defense, and make an easier pass out to open shooters. Also, instead of teams focusing on preventing him from getting in the lane, he’d start dead in the middle of it. If the defense wants to deny him the ball with help defense, someone else will be open.

2. We have enough lead guards capable of running the offense.

Between the Holiday trade, the Bogdan ordeal and the Augustin signing, Jon Horst made it very clear he felt the roster needed more shooting and playmaking from the point guard position this offseason. Donte has looked about as good as what we missed out on with Bogdan – who is now out indefinitely with a knee injury – although his 48% clip from three so far isn’t sustainable over the course of the year.

Beyond that, Khris Middleton has looked much more assertive and confident in his ability to run the offense this season. He’s averaging 5.9 assists per game so far – his career high is 4.3 – and he’s greatly improved in pick and roll situations, where his EFG% has jumped each of the last two seasons and now sits at 59.5%.

Knowing that, is it really necessary for Giannis to dribble the ball up the floor much anymore? If he focuses on getting down the floor and running rim to rim in transition, he’ll draw attention in the middle and give the guards more room to work.

I’ll be the first to admit, this plan doesn’t address every problem the Bucks have coming this postseason. There are still questions about the rotation ­– I’m still not sold on Thanasis and D.J. Wilson playing real minutes – and we can’t know for sure the early success we’ve seen from the new guys will last. But putting Giannis in the post more often and limiting his time on the perimeter when teams try to build The Wall will force defenses to re-adjust and find a new gameplay.

Something will have to change this time around when we get to the playoffs and from what I’ve seen, the adjustments should start with the guy the entire defense is game planning for.

Do you think Bud should try something like this out?

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