Alrighty boys and girls, it is prediction time. How many games will the Bucks win this season?
Now I am not saying that I am the Charlie Sheen of Brew Hoop. But two years ago my preseason prediction was off by one game (adjusted for the shorting of the season) and last year I was off by 2 games. Using science, I will attempt to amaze you again.
Using and slightly changing Dean Oliver's 4 factors, let us break down the past to predict the future.
2pt% diff past five seasons trend
0.4. 1.8, 8.8, 10.1. and last year declined to +4.7.
Now at first glance, you might say the trend went towards the wrong direction last year. However, the reduction actually brought a much needed balance to the team. We saw the fruits of the seasons experimentations be harvested come playoff time.
This years prediction is +6.0.
3pt% diff past five season trend
+1.7, -1.8, -0.8, 0.0, and last season improvement to +0.4.
Last year was the best 3pt% diff in the Bud era. In modern basketball, only 1 out of the last 20 teams that won rings had a negative 3pt%. With luck and the continued success at defending the 3 that occurred during the playoffs, the Bucks will continue to improve in this area.
This years prediction is +1.1
Free throws made diff past five season trend
-0.7, -0.1, 2.8, 1.6 and +1.6 last year.
I have always been shocked that the Bucks with Giannis and being one of the best teams at not fouling do not do better in this differential. It is as if the ref's are biased. This year I think we will see a slight improvement as Giannis improves his ft%.
This years prediction is +1.7.
Extra possessions diff past five seasons trend
0.7, 1.8, -0.5, -1.0, and -0.6 in tov created/game differential last year. (the higher the number the better)
-1.5, -1.6, -0.6, 0.0, and +0.7 last year in offensive rebound diff.
Last year without a true back up point guard and Jrue playing with new teammates, turnovers were higher than they should of been. But we started to see a positive focus on offensive rebounding that became a key during the team gritty playoff run.
This years prediction will be an improvement of extra possessions per game from +0.1 to +1.0 per game.
Last year the Bucks won 52 games (adjusted for shortened season), but should have won 55 games based on the above stats. The team really struggled with a 13-15 clutch record, which caused the win/loss deficit.
If the Bucks hit my above predictions, they would win 66 games. However, load management/injuries will cause 6 loses. So using science, my 2021-22 regular season prediction is 60 wins.