Our banners hang off the stern and our crumpled #FireBud posters lay at our feet. We post up on the deck, draw our eyes to the horizon and stare into the endless mirror sea that is our offseason. Yes, we are still the interminable six weeks away from the NBA preseason. Thanks to TheodorosGalanos for the questions.
Who are the top 10 young players (3rd to 5th year)?
Who are the young players that will take the next step?
After considering the second question, I'm left to wonder whether there are any trends with players who make "the leap" in there 3rd to 5th year. Essentially, can we do anything to predict the leap (or increase our odds)? If there is interest, I have ambitions to address this subject fully in a three-part series.
Part 1. Initial ranking and assessment
Part 2. Develop a research approach to enable
Part 3. Review research results and re-assess
As a reference, I've provided the active players that will be entering their 3rd, 4th, or 5th years in the league as well as some basic stats. I will spruce the table up after I brush up on a little HTML and can add stats by request. Ideally, I'd like the table to be filterable/sortable, but that will require me learning a little more code.
So two questions: Who's your top 10? and Who's going to make the leap in 2021-22?
| Player | WS | MP | USG% | Age | Pts/36 |
| Bam Adebayo | 8.8 | 2,143 | 23.7 | 23 | 20.1 |
| Zion Williamson | 8.7 | 2,026 | 29.8 | 20 | 29.3 |
| Deandre Ayton | 8.4 | 2,115 | 18.2 | 22 | 17 |
| Mikal Bridges | 8 | 2,348 | 14.9 | 24 | 14.9 |
| Luka Dončić | 7.7 | 2,262 | 36.0 | 21 | 29.1 |
| Trae Young | 7.2 | 2,125 | 33.0 | 22 | 27 |
| Michael Porter | 6.9 | 1,912 | 21.7 | 22 | 21.9 |
| John Collins | 6.7 | 1,848 | 22.2 | 23 | 21.6 |
| Jayson Tatum | 6.5 | 2,290 | 30.8 | 22 | 26.6 |
| Jarrett Allen | 6.4 | 1,864 | 16.6 | 22 | 15.6 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 6.2 | 1,771 | 33.5 | 24 | 28.5 |
| Chris Boucher | 6.1 | 1,453 | 20.5 | 28 | 20.3 |
| Ben Simmons | 6 | 1,877 | 20.2 | 24 | 15.9 |
| Royce O'Neale | 5.6 | 2,241 | 9.6 | 27 | 8 |
| Robert Williams | 5.3 | 985 | 15.0 | 23 | 15.2 |
| Jalen Brunson | 5.1 | 1,697 | 20.2 | 24 | 18.2 |
| Bruce Brown | 4.4 | 1,451 | 15.9 | 24 | 14.2 |
| Daniel Theis | 4.3 | 1,601 | 15.6 | 28 | 14.1 |
| Miles Bridges | 4.2 | 1,932 | 17.3 | 22 | 15.7 |
| Brandon Clarke | 4.2 | 1,415 | 17.2 | 24 | 15.5 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 4.2 | 2,036 | 31.0 | 23 | 25.8 |
| RJ Barrett | 4.1 | 2,511 | 23.4 | 20 | 18.1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanović | 3.9 | 1,305 | 21.3 | 28 | 19.9 |
| Khem Birch | 3.8 | 1,529 | 13.6 | 28 | 11.3 |
| Terance Mann | 3.7 | 1,263 | 15.1 | 24 | 13.5 |
| Duncan Robinson | 3.7 | 2,262 | 16.6 | 26 | 15 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 3.6 | 1,814 | 16.7 | 24 | 13.7 |
| Kevin Huerter | 3.6 | 2,126 | 17.2 | 22 | 13.9 |
| Daniel Gafford | 3.5 | 791 | 16.7 | 22 | 17.3 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 3.5 | 1,180 | 27.8 | 22 | 25.3 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 3.5 | 964 | 16.2 | 20 | 16.8 |
| Collin Sexton | 3.5 | 2,115 | 29.7 | 22 | 24.9 |
| Wendell Carter | 3.4 | 1,375 | 19.3 | 21 | 15.9 |
| Devonte' Graham | 3.4 | 1,659 | 21.4 | 25 | 17.7 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 3.4 | 853 | 11.8 | 22 | 10.8 |
| Keldon Johnson | 3.3 | 1,968 | 19.2 | 21 | 16.1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 3.3 | 1,954 | 20.3 | 25 | 16.1 |
| Dejounte Murray | 3.3 | 2,139 | 23.4 | 24 | 17.7 |
| Lonzo Ball | 3.2 | 1,747 | 20.5 | 23 | 16.5 |
| Ja Morant | 3.2 | 2,053 | 27.2 | 21 | 21.1 |
| Naz Reid | 3.2 | 1,347 | 22.5 | 21 | 21 |
| OG Anunoby | 3.1 | 1,433 | 19.3 | 23 | 17.1 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 3.1 | 1,139 | 12.3 | 21 | 10.9 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 3 | 1,317 | 20.2 | 23 | 19 |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 3 | 1,107 | 11.0 | 27 | 9.8 |
| Maxi Kleber | 2.9 | 1,341 | 10.6 | 29 | 9.5 |
| Monte Morris | 2.9 | 1,196 | 16.5 | 25 | 14.5 |
| Kendrick Nunn | 2.9 | 1,650 | 20.9 | 25 | 17.8 |
| Shake Milton | 2.8 | 1,461 | 24.9 | 24 | 20.1 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 2.8 | 1,298 | 9.4 | 23 | 7.1 |
| Kenrich Williams | 2.8 | 1,426 | 15.3 | 26 | 13.3 |
| Grayson Allen | 2.7 | 1,259 | 16.8 | 25 | 15.2 |
| Tony Bradley | 2.7 | 684 | 15.8 | 23 | 15.8 |
| Josh Hart | 2.7 | 1,349 | 13.5 | 25 | 11.6 |
| Luke Kennard | 2.7 | 1,232 | 17.1 | 24 | 15.2 |
| Damion Lee | 2.7 | 1,079 | 12.8 | 28 | 12.4 |
| P.J. Washington | 2.7 | 1,954 | 19.4 | 22 | 15.2 |
| Moses Brown | 2.6 | 920 | 16.9 | 21 | 14.5 |
| Cameron Johnson | 2.6 | 1,437 | 17.0 | 24 | 14.4 |
| Alex Caruso | 2.4 | 1,216 | 14.8 | 26 | 11 |
| Coby White | 2.4 | 2,156 | 22.5 | 20 | 17.4 |
| Drew Eubanks | 2.3 | 755 | 17.1 | 23 | 14.8 |
| Garrison Mathews | 2.3 | 1,038 | 11.5 | 24 | 12.3 |
| Torrey Craig | 2.2 | 803 | 14.3 | 30 | 12.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 2.2 | 1,045 | 19.5 | 22 | 16.3 |
| Rui Hachimura | 2.1 | 1,797 | 18.1 | 22 | 15.8 |
| Talen Horton-Tucker | 2.1 | 1,304 | 21.7 | 20 | 16.2 |
| Furkan Korkmaz | 2 | 1,062 | 20.5 | 23 | 17 |
| Dean Wade | 2 | 1,212 | 12.9 | 24 | 11.2 |
| Nicolas Claxton | 1.9 | 594 | 14.0 | 21 | 12.8 |
| Jordan Poole | 1.9 | 988 | 25.0 | 21 | 22.3 |
| Derrick White | 1.9 | 1,064 | 22.4 | 26 | 18.7 |
| Mohamed Bamba | 1.8 | 725 | 21.8 | 22 | 18.2 |
| Oshae Brissett | 1.8 | 519 | 15.6 | 22 | 15.9 |
| Sterling Brown | 1.8 | 1,229 | 13.5 | 25 | 12.2 |
| Landry Shamet | 1.8 | 1,403 | 16.7 | 23 | 14.5 |
| Anfernee Simons | 1.8 | 1,104 | 18.3 | 21 | 16.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 1.7 | 1,635 | 23.5 | 21 | 17.9 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 1.7 | 678 | 20.2 | 23 | 18.3 |
| John Konchar | 1.7 | 575 | 12.4 | 24 | 11.5 |
| Gary Trent | 1.7 | 1,802 | 20.9 | 22 | 17.7 |
| Jevon Carter | 1.6 | 717 | 15.0 | 25 | 12.5 |
| Hamidou Diallo | 1.6 | 1,226 | 22.2 | 22 | 17.7 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 1.6 | 559 | 19.2 | 22 | 15.2 |
| Goga Bitadze | 1.5 | 561 | 18.1 | 21 | 14.8 |
| Yuta Watanabe | 1.5 | 723 | 12.7 | 26 | 10.9 |
| Marvin Bagley | 1.4 | 1,112 | 23.5 | 21 | 19.7 |
| Dillon Brooks | 1.4 | 1,997 | 26.1 | 25 | 20.7 |
| Edmond Sumner | 1.4 | 861 | 18.3 | 25 | 16.7 |
| Ty Jerome | 1.3 | 788 | 18.8 | 23 | 16.1 |
| Josh Okogie | 1.3 | 1,197 | 12.1 | 22 | 9.5 |
| Isaiah Roby | 1.3 | 1,425 | 17.7 | 22 | 13.5 |
| Darius Garland | 1.2 | 1,790 | 24.9 | 21 | 18.9 |
| Frank Jackson | 1.2 | 738 | 21.3 | 22 | 19 |
| Jalen McDaniels | 1.2 | 904 | 17.0 | 23 | 13.8 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 1.2 | 938 | 13.7 | 24 | 9.8 |
| Mychal Mulder | 1.2 | 766 | 16.2 | 26 | 15.8 |
| Semi Ojeleye | 1.2 | 950 | 11.6 | 26 | 9.9 |
| Moritz Wagner | 1.2 | 722 | 18.1 | 23 | 15.5 |
| PJ Dozier | 1.1 | 1,088 | 17.2 | 24 | 12.7 |
