How do you define or quantify success? Morgan had a very interesting piece about that question this week, and it got me thinking about the Eastern Conference powerhouse teams over the last 4 years. How do they stack up during that time? Success may be multi-faceted as Giannis teaches us, and may have different targets for different people as Morgan suggests, but it is at least quantifiable in some ways:
First, I want to say how satisfying it is that I don't even have to think about including the Superteam Nets in this discussion.
- 2019 offseason - add Kyrie and injured KD
2019-20: 35 wins
- trade for Harden
2020-21: 48 wins (covid)
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Boston Celtics
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (3-4) versus Milwaukee Bucks
- trade Harden for Ben Simmons
2021-22: 44 wins
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (0-4) versus Boston Celtics
2022-23: 45 wins
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (0-4) versus Philadelphia 76ers
Nets
Total Regular Season Wins: 172
Total Playoff Wins: 7
High: Game 7 second round
Low: Miss playoffs
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So, now onto the teams that mattered in the last four years:
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76ers
- 2019 offseason - trade Jimmy Butler (oops)
2019-20: 43 wins
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (0-4) versus Boston Celtics
- hire Doc
2020-21: 49 wins (covid)
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Washington Wizards (Series Stats)
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (3-4) versus Atlanta Hawks
- trade Simmons for James Harden
2021-22: 51 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-2) versus Toronto Raptors (Series Stats)
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (2-4) versus Miami Heat
2022-23: 54 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Brooklyn Nets (Series Stats)
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (3-4) versus Boston Celtics
- fire Doc
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76ers
Total Regular Season Wins: 197
Total Playoff Wins: 20
High: Game 7 second round
Low: First round sweep
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Bucks
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2019-20: 56 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Orlando Magic
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (1-4) versus Miami Heat
- trade Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday
2020-21: 46 wins (covid)
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Miami Heat
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) versus Brooklyn Nets
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-2) versus Atlanta Hawks
- Won NBA Finals (4-2) versus Phoenix Suns
2021-22: 51 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (3-4) versus Boston Celtics
2022-23: 58 wins
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (1-4) versus Miami Heat
- fire Bud
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Bucks
Total Regular Season Wins: 211
Total Playoff Wins: 29
High: Won NBA Finals
Low: First round loss
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Heat
- 2019 offseason - trade for Jimmy Butler
2019-20: 44 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Indiana Pacers
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-1) versus Milwaukee Bucks
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-2) versus Boston Celtics
- Lost NBA Finals (2-4) versus Los Angeles Lakers
2020-21: 40 wins (covid)
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (0-4) versus Milwaukee Bucks
2021-22: 53 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Atlanta Hawks
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Philadelphia 76ers
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Finals (3-4) versus Boston Celtics
2022-23: 44 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Milwaukee Bucks
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus New York Knicks
- Winning NBA Eastern Conference Finals (3-0) versus Boston Celtics
- NBA Finals versus Denver Nuggets TBD
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Heat
Total Regular Season Wins: 181
Total Playoff Wins: 36
High: NBA Finals game 6/TBD
Low: First round sweep
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Celtics
- 2019 offseason - lose Kyrie Irving (yay?)
2019-20: 48 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Philadelphia 76ers
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) versus Toronto Raptors
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference Finals (2-4) versus Miami Heat
2020-21: 36 wins (covid)
- Lost NBA Eastern Conference First Round (1-4) versus Brooklyn Nets
- Stevens moves to GM, hire Udoka
2021-22: 51 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Brooklyn Nets
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) versus Milwaukee Bucks
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-3) versus Miami Heat
- Lost NBA Finals (2-4) versus Golden State Warriors
- Fire Udoka, hire Mazzula
2022-23: 57 wins
- Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-2) versus Atlanta Hawks
- Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) versus Philadelphia 76ers
- Losing NBA Eastern Conference Finals (0-3) versus Miami Heat
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Celtics
Total Regular Season Wins: 192
Total Playoff Wins: 33
High: NBA Finals game 6
Low: First round loss
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Overall Comparison
Total Regular Season Wins:
Bucks - 211
76ers - 197
Celtics - 192
Heat - 181
Total Playoff Wins:
Heat - 36
Celtics - 33
Bucks - 29
76ers - 20
High:
Bucks - NBA Title
Heat - Finals game 6, Finals TBD
Celtics - Finals game 6
76ers - Game 7 second round
Low:
Bucks/Celtics - first round loss
Heat/76ers - first round sweep
So, a few questions:
How much do regular season wins matter? Are 76ers fans feeling good that they have the second most in this group? If the Heat lose in the Finals this year to Denver, will they feel good with the least regular season success, but the most postseason wins?
What about postseason wins? Are the Celtics fans feeling good with all their success, despite no title? Or is it better to be in the Bucks position, with fewer postseason wins, but a title (I'd say for sure yes).
And, some observations:
All four teams have lost in the first round in this 4 year stretch. Maybe it isn't such a bad thing.
With the most regular season wins, and a championship, I'd put the Bucks as the current best team to have been a fan of, and the most successful, over this stretch.
If the Heat win the championship, I think it becomes an argument: Miami would have two Finals appearances and another ECF appearance, but 30 fewer regular season wins. Personally, I'd take Miami as the more successful in that scenario.
Philadelphia is the least successful over the stretch, but it is quite remarkable how close these franchises have been. I never really realized it until recently, thinking the Bucks and Celtics were ahead of the pack, when that really isn't the case at all.
Finally, what happens next?
This offseason, the Bucks, 76ers, and maybe Celtics will be looking for new head coaches. Pretty remarkable given their run of success at the top of the conference over the last four years. Which will hire a star, and which a bust? Or will all just continue to have more talent and more regular season success, and less postseason success than Erik Spoelstra?
Bud in my opinion is a better coach than Doc or Mazzula, though worse than Udoka. It's a shame to lose him, but I think we're also the team that is trending downwards in this comparison, whereas the others are up (Heat and 76ers) or neutral (Celtics).
Will we stay with the pack, or drift away from it? Could we jump back up to the clear best with another title next season? Will a 5th team emerge to challenge this dominant foursome?
What are your thoughts? Do you find this interesting? Let me know!
(I'll update after the Finals are over, but I didn't want to wait another few weeks)
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